Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash: Speculation swirls about cause of the disaster

As speculation swirls about the cause of a plane crash that killed at least 38 people, aviation experts have floated one grim potential explanation.

Speculation is swirling about the cause of a horrific plane crash in Kazakhstan, which has left 38 of the 69 people on board dead.

The Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet was flying from the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku, to Grozny in Chechnya, Russia, when it diverted from its route and tried to make an emergency landing near Aktau, in Kazakhstan’s southwest.

Instead it plummeted to the ground, broke apart and erupted in flames.

We have yet to hear a firm explanation of what, exactly, happened to the plane, or indeed one for why it turned and crossed the Caspian Sea, towards Aktau, when Grozny was closer.

You can see its flight path below, beginning in Baku. The plane then followed its planned route to the northwest, towards Grozny, skirting the east coast of Azerbaijan.

With about a third of the route left it dropped off radar, eventually reappearing on the other side of the sea, near Aktau, where it eventually crashed about 3km from the airport.

The path the flight took, disappearing from radar for a time before reappearing near its crash site, on the other side of the sea. Picture: FlightRadar

Azerbaijan Airlines has speculated that the plane may have collided with a flock of birds, causing the damage that eventually forced it down.

Officials at the flight’s intended destination, the airport in Grozny, told Russia’s state-run TASS news agency it had been diverted due to poor weather conditions.

However multiple aviation experts have speculated that the damage to the plane, as seen in footage of the crash site, was more consistent with what you’d expect from air defences, as opposed to birds.

“Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire,” said Matt Borie, the chief intelligence officer at aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The area around Grozny is not far from sites where Russian anti-aircraft systems have previously shot down Ukrainian drones - something that had already prompted Osprey to warn airline customers about an increased risk before the Christmas Day crash.

Azerbaijan Airlines has now halted all of its flights to Grozny.

A drone view shows the crash site of the plane. Picture: Azamat Sarsenbayev/Reuters

The plane broke apart. Picture: AFP

Death toll rises as plane’s terrifying last moments emerge

The death toll of 38 comes from Kazakh authorities. The remaining passengers and crew members survived, and were taken to hospital.

Rescuers who rushed to save who they could have described a scene so devastating that it reduced them to tears.

“The front (of the plane) was on fire. We rescued the survivors. Their bodies were covered in blood. They were crying. Everyone was asking for help,” one such rescuer, Elmira, told Radio Free Europe.

“A little girl came out. She looked at me and said, ‘Save my mum, my mum is still there.’ She was crying and begging. ‘Please save her. Save her.’”

She said the survivors, who included people of all ages, including children, had been piled onto a bus to keep them from “freezing” in the cold temperatures.

Meanwhile Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Kanat Bozumbayev, provided a grim update on those who had not survived the crash.

“The bodies are in poor condition. Mostly burnt. All collected,” Mr Bozumbayev said.

“Now they will be in the morgue, and identification will take place.”

All but one of the survivors have been identified, the exception being a woman who remains unconscious in hospital and “has no documents”.

The plane during its final moments in the air. Picture: X

And when it struck the ground. Picture: X

Emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. Picture: Issa Tazhenbayev / AFP.

Footage showed the plane going up and down before it crashed, bursting into flames.

Other videos showed passengers staggering away from the crash site.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cut short a visit to Russia, where he had been due to attend an informal summit of leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a grouping of former Soviet nations, his office said in a statement.

The health ministry said a flight was being sent from the Kazakh capital Astana with specialist doctors to treat the injured.

Mr Aliyev’s office said: “The President ordered the prompt initiation of urgent measures to investigate the causes of the disaster.”

Emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. Picture: AFP.

Azerbaijan’s first lady Mehriban Aliyeva, who is also the country’s first Vice President, said she was “deeply saddened by the news of the tragic loss of lives in the plane crash near Aktau.”

“I extend my heartfelt condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims. Wishing them strength and patience! I also wish a speedy recovery to the injured,” she said on Instagram.

“I express my condolences to the relatives of the passengers of the Azerbaijan Airlines jet who died,” Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said on Telegram.

The plane’s course on Flight Radar showed it crossing the Caspian Sea away from its normal route and then circling over the area where it eventually crashed.

Kazakhstan said it had opened an investigation into the crash.

- with AFP