Wildcard that may threaten Australia’s border reopening past 2022

Australia’s international borders will be reopened sooner than expected, but there’s a huge wildcard driving uncertainty about when that will happen.

Australia’s international borders will be reopened in 2022 under a “cautious approach” according to the Tuesday’s budget but there’s a huge wildcard driving uncertainty about when and how quickly that will happen.

The Morrison Government has conceded today the big question remains the threat that people who are vaccinated may still be able to catch and spread COVID, even if the vaccine means it will no longer kill them.

Booster shots may also be required to improve the immunity of travellers who go to regions with new variants that are immune to the first generation vaccines.

It’s that uncertainty that’s driving delays and caution over the reopening of Australia’s international borders that will likely be delivered in a staggered changes that test the impact of each small step to return to normal.

A new 2022 deadline to reopen borders to be confirmed in Tuesday’s budget represents a significant delay to the original plan to reopen borders in October, 2020.

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There’s still a lot of uncertainty around how the border will reopen. Picture: NCA NewsWire / James Gourley

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Finance Minister Simon Birmingham has cautioned this morning there are “many uncertainties” as the Morrison Government works on a road map to reopening Australia to the world and safety will be first and foremost.

“Border closures have been, arguably, the single biggest factor in keeping COVID out of Australia and in doing so not just saving Australian lives but saving Australian jobs,’’ Senator Birmingham said.

“So we are going to maintain those tough border settings until it is clearly safe for us to do so. And where we take cautious steps, as we have done with New Zealand, it will be on health advice. Right now, sadly, it’s a bit of a grim picture in some parts of the world. That means it will be a very cautious approach.

Senator Birmingham conceded it was not the case that Australians who are already vaccinated could travel internationally.

“No, not at this stage. Again, there’s health advice to consider in relation to vaccination. People who are vaccinated will not get, on the odds, sick as a result of catching COVID,’’ he said.

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Finance Minister Simon Birmingham has cautioned this morning there are “many uncertainties” as the Morrison Government works on a road map to reopening Australia. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

“But people can still catch COVID and they can still, in some circumstances, transmit it. So that’s where we continue to seek further analysis and information as to how we might be able to use vaccination over a period of time to help inform the way in which we might be able to open up in certain settings or to certain countries. That will all be informed by health advice.

“There are many uncertainties in relation to COVID. Anyone who says they can predict how a once in a century pandemic unfolds is kidding themselves. What we’ve managed to do is to keep Australia safe.”

While the news is a blow to Qantas’ plans to resume international flights later this year, the confirmation of the timetable is good news for business leaders calling for a clearer road map.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed the 2021 budget will aim for the reopening of the international border next year but even that date could be subject to change.

Migration to and from Australia could resume earlier as workplaces call for more skilled migrants.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed the 2021 budget will aim for the reopening of the international border next year but even that date could be subject to change. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

“The borders will reopen when it’s safe to do so, and when they do, net overseas migration will increase, including skilled workers,” Mr Frydenberg told Nine newspapers.

But he rejected claims that keeping Australia’s borders shut were one of the biggest reasons in the economic bounce back Australia had experienced because travellers could not spend dollars overseas.

“It’s a pandemic effect, not a permanent one,” he said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison told News Corp over the weekend that he did not believe Australians had an “appetite” for opening borders if it meant having to deal with more coronavirus outbreaks.

“We have to be careful not to exchange that way of life for what everyone else has,” he said.

But he rejected suggestions on Sunday that he wanted to keep borders closed in order to eliminate COVID-19.

“Australia’s COVID suppression strategy has not changed to an ‘elimination’ strategy nor is ‘zero cases’ our goal,” he said on Facebook. “

“There will always be cases as we return Australians home from overseas. International borders will only open when it is safe to do so.”

Labor leader Anthony Albanese accused the Morrison Government of “confusing” voters on the road map to reopen borders and called on the Morrison Government to clarify when international travel will resume.