Vaccine uptake, quarantine improvements needed to reopen Australia’s international borders

Experts have revealed just what it will take to help reopen “fortress Australia’s” international borders — and there’s a few steps to go.

Better vaccination uptake and improvements to our hotel quarantine system could be needed to get “fortress Australia’s” international walls down, experts have said.

The issue of our nation’s still-shut international borders — and a timetable for when it will open — has been a major talking point in the week since the federal budget was revealed, along with the grim prediction freedom of movement between Australia and the rest of the world likely won’t resume until the middle of next year.

Business leaders and a number of medical experts have warned that when we do reopen, the chances of staying at “COVID zero” could become slimmer, bringing illness and some death.

The latest Newspoll showed 73 per cent of voters believe our borders should remain closed until mid-2022. It’s a sentiment bolstered by Scott Morrison, who, despite declaring this time last year that Australia couldn’t stay shut forever, has dug in his heels in recent weeks, deeming it “not safe” to resume international travel.

“I’m not going to take risks with Australian’s lives,” the Prime Minister told reporters on Tuesday.

Australia’s success in mostly keeping coronavirus out has helped breed a dangerous complacency about both closed borders and vaccination, health experts, economists and political analysts told ABC’s 7:30 on Wednesday night.

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A better vaccination uptake and improvements to our hotel quarantine system could be needed to help reopen “fortress Australia’s” international borders, experts have said. Picture: NCA NewsWire/James Gourley

“I worry that people think that we can just continue our lives like this,” government health adviser Jane Halton told the broadcaster’s chief political correspondent, Laura Tingle.

“That there is no risk that we will have an outbreak. And I really worry that that is delaying people going and getting what are safe vaccines. I worry that in winter, we could have another outbreak.”

Tony Mitchelmore, founder of one of leading political and corporate researcher, Visibility, told Tingle that if the most recent Newspoll was anything to go by, “people are still worried — and while it’s like that, people are going to want to keep the borders closed”.

The “big debate” at the moment, said Burnet Institute infectious disease researcher Professor Brendan Crabb, “seems to be, you know, how long are we fortress Australia versus an open Australia”.

“I think that that’s the wrong framing of the question. The real question is how long do we maintain COVID zero?” Prof Crabb told the program.

“How do we maintain COVID zero, while still allowing Australia to open up more and more?”

A number of factors, Ms Halton said, could pave our way back to an “open Australia”.

“The truth is, our borders aren’t completely shut. There are people coming out — not very many — but that means we have contact with the outside world. We can’t shut ourselves off,” she said.

While recent attention has been given to significant waves of infection in countries like Thailand and Taiwan — which up until recently, had made progress against the virus similar to our own — not enough has been focused on the positive impact vaccines have had in countries that were previously fighting an uphill battle.

“In the US, we’re seeing a significant reduction in infection numbers, we’re seeing a fantastic improvement in the number of people who’ve died. That’s a huge achievement. We’re seeing the same in Britain,” she explained.

Australians’ hesitancy to get vaccinated — with a recent poll finding that a third of people intend to refuse the jab — could in part be chalked up to a “vagueness” around the efficacy of the vaccine’s performance, Mr Mitchelmore added.

“More than anything, what has to change is the belief, and the imperative, around the vaccine. You’ve got AstraZeneca and bloods clots, you’ve got just this vagueness around the efficacy of it,” he said.

“It’s not seen as a silver bullet to people. People feel safe and secure, so they’re not running out to get it at the moment.”

Both agree that some kind of incentive needs to be offered to get Australians motivated about the vaccine.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has doubled down on his ultra-cautious border approach. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Dan Peled

"I worry that people think that we can just continue to our lives like this," government health adviser Jane Halton said. Picture: ABC

Australia’s quarantine system also needs to change as the risk factors of the virus do, Ms Halton — who last year was tasked with reviewing the system — said.

“We need our quarantine system not just to keep up with the virus but preferably to be in front of where the virus is,” she said.

“We also, I think, need to anticipate where people are widely vaccinated and where there’s different levels of risk. So for example, Howard Springs — fantastic service and it’s good that it’s scaling up, but we probably can and probably will need more of that kind of quarantine.”

We would also do well, Singapore National University Hospital’s Professor Dale Fisher, advised, to take a leaf from the Asian nation’s book when it comes to altering our international border rules.

“There’s several systems in place in Singapore to make the borders a little looser,” Prof Fisher, who has been closely involved in the country’s public health response, said.

“A traffic light system, if you like. If you’re coming from a high-risk country, then the rules are very much like Australia. Countries with very little disease, you can come straight into Singapore with only a test. Then there’s the middle people — the quarantine is for a week only. You can do the quarantine at home, but you’ll be wearing a bracelet.”

Asked by Tingle what a “realistic picture” of Australia will be by the middle of 2022, Ms Halton said her “hope is that our population is vaccinated to the extent of 70 or 80 per cent”, saying we could get there earlier if our rollout is sped up.

“We won’t know where this virus will have gone in terms of mutation — we’re seeing the Indian mutation at the moment, which is much more infectious — so we don’t know what the virus will be doing,” she said.

“But if we are protected it gives us a much stronger position to think about our borders, to think about our economy, and also to think about being able to welcome again students, some of the workers we need in our economy as well. So I think it’ll be a different world, it won’t necessarily be less complicated.”