Covid cases, fatalities tipped to soar as borders reopen

Australia is finally reopening after more than 18 months of brutal Covid restrictions. But states are already predicting how many lives it will cost.

“Fortress Australia” is now a thing of the past, with the country forging ahead with its post-Covid reopening plan.

But the opening of international and state and territory borders comes with an increased risk, with experts bracing for a rise in cases in the weeks and months ahead.

Now, some of Australia’s states and territories are releasing their own modelling on what the future holds – including predictions of a looming Covid-19 death toll.

South Australia

From November 23, South Australia will remove its border restrictions for fully vaccinated interstate travellers.

Modelling linked to the reopening plan has revealed the state’s health system is expected to be able to cope with hospital admissions and a predicted 13 deaths in almost one year.

Speaking to The Advertiser, South Australia’s chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier said based on current restrictions, it was a “manageable scenario” which predicts peak ward and ICU occupancies of 36 and nine beds respectively.

The modelling also includes a second scenario, which would involve removing mask mandates, and which could bring with it 55 deaths over 300 days.

The third scenario – which would see relaxed restrictions by the introduction of vaccination certificates, and allowing high-risk activities for the full vaccinated – could result in more than 315 deaths, and a peak ward and ICU occupancy of 351 and 72 beds respectively.

Modelling has predicted a surge in cases and deaths as Australia reopens. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Jeremy Piper

Queensland

Under Queensland’s recently-released reopening modelling, opening borders is expected to cause new infections at an average rate of 10 per day.

The QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute also suggests that when the state opens the border on December 17, there could be 200 deaths within the first 90 days of reopening, with most fatalities affecting over-65s.

It also indicated Queensland might need up to 500 intensive care beds for future Covid cases.

Western Australia

So far, WA Premier Mark McGowan is keeping his state borders tightly shut to NSW, Victoria and the ACT, and the government has not yet released official modelling.

But Mr McGowan has used Doherty modelling provided to National Cabinet in September to argue it was too dangerous to reopen any time soon.

In one Doherty scenario, more than 4000 West Australians would end up in hospital with the virus, with more than 700 deaths occurring within six months of reopening to other states at 80 per cent vaccination.

Mr McGowan previously said that “removing our hard border too early would mean importing the virus, which could see Western Australians die”.

He said WA would likely reopen to international travellers and those form high-risk states after the state reached between 80 and 90 per cent vaccination, which would likely be “sometime next year”. At the moment, residents from the NT, SA, Tasmania and Queensland are allowed to freely travel into the state with no vaccination or quarantine measures.

Mark McGowan won’t reopen WA to NSW, the ACT and Victoria until 2022. Picture: Colin Murty/The Australian

NSW

Modelling had predicted that when NSW reopened at 70 per cent vaccination, there would be around 1900 Covid cases per day.

Other modelling expected Greater Sydney to reach a peak in Covid hospitalisations of up to 4000 in late September.

Newly-formed advisory group OzSage also predicted 689 deaths in NSW by February 1 next year if restrictions were eased at 70 per cent.

But so far, NSW is proving those dire predictions wrong, with just 135 new cases confirmed on Monday.

There are currently 349 cases admitted to hospital, with 77 people in intensive care, 33 of whom require ventilation.

Victoria

Modelling conducted for the Victorian government and released in September ahead of the state’s release from lockdown revealed there was more than a one-in-two chance of hospital and ICU capacity being overwhelmed – and that the road map out of lockdown could lead to up to 3152 deaths.

The Burnet Institute modelling also found that if the state had remained locked down even after hitting its 80 per cent vaccination target, it would slash the predicted death toll from 1729 to 786.

But it has been criticised, with Monash University physics professor Michael Fuhrer claiming the “projections seem almost absurdly pessimistic” and that the numbers would likely be far lower than predicted.

There were emotional scenes at Sydney airport today as international travel resumed. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

Tasmania

In late September, Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein also cited Doherty Institute modelling, claiming if the state reopened to NSW and Victoria at an 80 per cent vaccination rate, it would lead to 14,900 cases, up to 590 hospital admissions, 97 intensive care admissions and almost 100 deaths in six months.

After commissioning Tasmania-specific modelling from the Kirby Institute, the state has decided to allow visitors once it reaches 80 per cent vaccination early this month, with travellers having to undergo 14 days of home or hotel quarantine.

Once Tasmania reaches 90 per cent in mid-December, quarantine will be scrapped, and visitors will simply have to return a negative test within 72 hours of travel.

The state will maintain current public health measures and a high level of contact tracing, with Mr Gutwein expecting “a possible daily peak of 242 cases in hospital and less than 70 cases in the ICU”.

“And whilst still high, significantly reduced deaths at 87, compared to the model without the public health measures in place.”

Northern Territory

Chief Minister Michael Gunner requested NT-specific Doherty Modelling back in August, which has not yet been received.

Despite that, the government has released its own reopening plan, with the first change due to kick in in early December, when fully vaccinated visitors from hotspot zones will be able to isolate at home.

ACT

The ACT began reopening on Friday, just days after the territory reached 90 per cent double-dose vaccination.

Fully vaccinated residents are now able to travel freely throughout NSW and Victoria.