Boeing’s outlook for aviation is 38050 new aircraft in 20 years

BOEING predicts our skies will be among the world’s busiest by 2035 with the Asia Pacific aircraft fleet boosted by another 38,050 new planes.

IN 20 years time Australian skies will be among the world’s busiest, abuzz with a fleet of low-cost carriers flying single-aisle planes at high frequency.

At least that is the picture Boeing has painted in its annual 20-year forecast that the aircraft manufacturer insists is “conservative”. Among the predictions are a tripling of the aircraft fleet in the Asia Pacific by 2034, as the region morphs into the world’s largest travel market. Numbers are set to grow from 5850 aircraft currently to a forecast 16,180, operated by an estimated 225 airlines. Worldwide, another 38,050 aircraft are tipped to be needed by 2034, worth a staggering $5.6 trillion. Boeing’s vice president of marketing Randy Tinseth said much of the growth would be driven by low cost carriers in Asia that were already expanding passenger numbers at an average annual rate of 24.5 per cent. “We saw six per cent traffic growth last year (worldwide) and that equated to 180 million more passengers travelling by air,” Mr Tinseth said. “Of those 180 million, 100 million flew on low cost carriers. This is an area that’s especially growing strong in Asia today.” The Boeing forecast predicted the most in demand aircraft would be single-aisle planes such as the 737-800 and 737 MAX, capable of seating between 90 and 230 passengers. Such aircraft already form the foundation of the world’s airline fleet carrying up to 75 per cent of passengers on more than 70 per cent of commercial aviation routes. An estimated 26,730 orders are expected for single-aisle planes with about 35 per cent coming from low cost carriers seeking flight frequency and fast turnarounds. “Our research shows that 78 per cent of the time, airlines chose to grow by adding additional frequencies, and 14 per cent of the time, they chose to grow by adding new routes,” he said. “Only seven per cent of the time, did airlines actually choose to grow by putting bigger aircraft on their routes.” Demand for large wide-bodied aircraft such as Boeing’s 747-8 and rival Airbus’s A380 was tipped to be the smallest, with a mere 540 orders expected in the next 20-years. “Our competition is sitting out there with a very large aircraft (A380) that has undersold their expectations by many fold, not to our surprise,” Mr Tinseth said. “You look at opportunities for those planes going forward, they’re few and far between.”