US warns Europe that Russia may invade Ukraine

The United States has warned European Union allies that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine, according to reports.

The United States has warned European Union allies that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine, according to reports.

Washington has been closely monitoring a build-up of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, and on Wednesday warned Moscow against making another “serious mistake”.

Bloomberg now reports that US officials have briefed their EU counterparts on their concerns over a possible military invasion.

People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg the assessments are believed to have been made on information the US hasn’t yet shared with European governments, but are backed up by publicly available evidence.

Russia has denied any aggressive intentions, accusing the US of provocation by sailing warships in the Black Sea this week.

Welcoming Ukraine’s Foreign Minister to Washington on Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was “concerned with reports of the unusual Russian activity near Ukraine”.

“We don’t have clarity into Moscow’s intentions, but we do know its playbook,” Mr Blinken told a joint news conference.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands at his position on the frontline with Russian-backed separatists near the small city of Marinka, Donetsk region, on April 20. Picture: Aleksey Filippov/AFP

“Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014 when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked.

“Our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, to its independence, to its territorial integrity is iron-clad, and the international community will see through any Russian effort to resort to its previous tactics.”

Ukraine has been ensnared in a deadly war with pro-Moscow separatists in its largely Russian-speaking east since 2014 when Russia seized the Crimea peninsula.

Russia took action after mass protests led to the ousting of the president who had suspended efforts to move closer to the European Union.

Russia in March also amassed 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders. It pulled back, but both Ukraine and the United States said at the time that the withdrawal was limited.

Satellite image taken on November 1, 2021 shows a large ground forces deployment on the northern edge of the town of Yelnya, Smolensk Oblast, Russia. Picture: Maxar Technologies/AFP

Seeking clarity

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine was looking to work with the US to step up its defences and “does not intend to attack anyone”.

“The best way to deter an aggressive Russia is to make it clear for the Kremlin that Ukraine is strong, but also that it has strong allies that will not leave it on its own in the face of Moscow’s ever increasing aggressiveness,” Mr Kuleba said.

“Russian aggression against Ukraine will end on the day Ukraine’s place as part of the West is institutionalised and undoubted.”

Bloomberg noted that Mr Kuleba appeared to suggest the US had shared some new information with him.

“What we heard and saw today in Washington, D.C. corresponds to our own findings and analysis, adds some new elements which allows us to get a better, more comprehensive picture,” he said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hold a news conference following the US-Ukraine Strategic Dialogue talks in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021. Picture: Leah Millis/AFP

He added that the situation in Belarus is a “potential frontline” and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the movement by Russia was “unusual in its size and scope”.

“We urge Russia to be clear about their intentions and to abide by their Minsk agreements,” he said, referring to agreements to try to halt the fighting inside Ukraine.

The comments followed a rare visit to Moscow last week by the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, who spoke on the phone with President Vladimir Putin.

CNN reported that President Joe Biden deployed Burns, the former US ambassador to Moscow, to raise the issue of the Russian troop surge directly with the Kremlin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a televised address on Wednesday night that he hoped “the whole world clearly sees who really wants peace and who is concentrating almost 100,000 troops on our border”.

“Psychological pressure from Russia doesn’t have an impact on us, our intelligence has all the information, our army is ready to repel anytime and anywhere,” he said.