China’s first fully combat-capable aircraft carrier reveals Xi’s master plan

New photos reveal China’s first fully combat-capable aircraft carrier is under construction – and there’s one detail that has people worried.

China’s first fully combat-capable aircraft carrier is rapidly taking shape. And it’s turning out to be a bigger deal than expected.

On the surface, it appears to be a skewed assembly of steel blocks. But satellite photos taken just a fortnight ago prove Beijing’s determination to become a world power is steaming ahead.

They show the critical modular components of the first of a new class of aircraft carrier being brought together. It’s the first hard evidence of what is to come. And naval observers the world over have been examining every pixel to uncover what details they can.

One thing appears certain: It’s bigger than expected.

And that means it’s likely to shift the balance of power in the Pacific dramatically.

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A recent aerial photograph of the Type 003 construction site released on Chinese government-controlled social media site Weibo.

BIGGER IS BETTER

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) currently operates two small aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong. These are Soviet Union era designs. Their combat capability is limited. But they’re providing a fast-tracked learning curve for what comes next.

Type 003 is that next.

Two new satellite images of the Type 003 aircraft carrier are available at GE, which allow a slightly better estimation of its dimensions than the previous images.

My latest attempt - and as always please correct me if I'm wrong - would be 296 m long and 40.4 m width. pic.twitter.com/mHe1prsP4W

— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) November 20, 2020

It was always touted to be a big-league combat ship, comparable to the fully-fledged aircraft carriers of the French and United States navy.

But separating out details from the boasts of Beijing’s CCP-controlled media has been difficult.

Is it nuclear powered? Does it have the catapults and arresting wires needed for big aircraft? Just how advanced and effective is the technology behind the design?

Google Earth satellite photos from early November reveal the ongoing work assembling Type 003.

Naval observers have been counting pixels and making comparisons to the known sizes of elements in the picture’s context. Their tentative conclusion is the ship will be at least 285m long at the waterline. That’s similar to that of its US counterpart.

Here's some fresh imagery (dtd 10/13/2020) from the shipyard where China is building its first full-size, home-designed supercarrier (pictured in upper half).

Shown here in comparison with the latest under-construction US CVN (USS John F. Kennedy, pictured in 2018, lower). pic.twitter.com/4jLMyzsYps

— Thomas Shugart (@tshugart3) November 20, 2020

“I’m no naval architect, but given these dimensions I’m guessing that the common estimate of 85,000 tons for the Type 003 is probably a bit low, with an eventual size probably closer to that of US supercarriers,” former submariner Thomas Shugart tweeted.

His doubts mirror those of naval analyst Rick Joe.

“The sheer size of 003’s potential waterline length and beam (the latter being 40m at its widest point) has led some parts of the PLA-watching community to question if past rumours of 85,000 tons full displacement may have been an underestimate or perhaps reflective of an older configuration or design.”

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A conceptual model of the Type 003 aircraft carrier design was published in The Global Times.

WHAT WE KNOW

Commander of United States Fleet Forces Admiral Chris Grady in September brushed aside reports of China’s advancing carrier power.

“Good on ’em. It makes the argument that carriers are important,” he said. “We have them. They want them and they’re building them.”

China’s Type 003 will not likely be nuclear powered like those of the United States navy. Instead, like Britain’s new ski-ramp carriers, it will run on conventional fuels driving electric turbines.

Where it will differ from Britain’s Queen Elizabeth class is that it will almost certainly carry catapults and arresting wires to launch big, heavily laden aircraft. And that puts it back in the league of the US navy.

It also may explain why it’s turning out bigger than expected.

“It was known in earlier years that 003 was originally intended to field steam catapults rather than electromagnetic (EM) catapults, so it is plausible that changes in 003’s design and displacement may have occurred alongside the decision to equip it with EM catapults,” writes Mr Joe in The Diplomat.

Only the very newest US navy carrier has this electromagnetic technology, the USS Ford. And it’s been experiencing immense difficulty in making it operational.

Satellite imagery from August 18 shows the hull blocks of China’s third aircraft carrier laid out in order and uncovered by environmental shelters, allowing the clearest view of the vessel since construction began. Read the full analysis: https://t.co/MbfySMuxxJ pic.twitter.com/DvdUDeMTyl

— ChinaPower (@ChinaPowerCSIS) November 23, 2020

“The Chinese are showing tremendous capability of designing and fitting out vessels,” Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyst Matthew Funaiole recently told The Washington Post. “It’s moving along on pace. It’s impressive the process they’re going through to position themselves at the forefront of carrier technology.”

A WAY TO GO

Type 003 still requires considerable work before completion. Upper decks will be added on top of the assembled blocks, then the hangar deck, and then the flight deck itself. Last will be the island (or control tower).

Estimates are the ship will be launched sometime in 2022. At that point, it will still need to be fitted with most of its electronics, accommodation facilities and weapons systems.

State-controlled media outlet The Global Times recently reported it would be ready for operation by 2025.

Interesting comparison of both Chinese aircraft carriers - the Type 003 as seen in October 2020 (left) and the Type 002 'Shandong' in November 2015 (right) - at a roughly comparable state of completion.

1/2 pic.twitter.com/irDx4Lh2yv

— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) November 22, 2020

Admiral Grady, when addressing the American Society of Naval Engineers, affected an unconcerned air.

“To me that makes all the sense; they’re a maritime power, and they understand the great value that comes from carrier aviation and how that can shape the international environment. It’s taken us over 100 years to get that right,” he said.

“Lots of blood, lots of loss of life, a lot of sweat and tears to make naval aviation work. We’ve got a huge lead and one that will continue to expand into the future. Go ahead and build that big ship, but to build the ecosystem that is naval aviation that brings that ship to life – that’s going to take a lot of hard work and time.”

This computer-generated image of a ship that may be the Type 003 design was seen in the background of a Chinese state-media photo of a shipyard board meeting.

Analysts point out the existing two carriers are barely capable of launching the heavy J-15 fighters they carry. And when they do, the aircraft have minimal – if any – weaponry. This demonstrates the need for Type 003 to have catapults, as well as new aircraft, to be effective.

But that effectiveness may not be all that far off.

“With two shipyards (Dalian and Jiangnan) proving they are capable of constructing carriers, the question now becomes when the next Chinese carrier will emerge after 003,” Mr Joe writes. “It is expected that additional carriers adopting the 003 design will be built before the PLAN advances to a nuclear-powered design, but it’s not known how many 003 pattern carriers may be built.”

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel