US officials declare El Nino – but Australia has yet to do so

US officials have declared a major climate change that could lead to “supercharged temperatures” for us – but Australia has yet to make the same call.

The El Nino climate driver has arrived – at least according to US meteorologists.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), which uses a different and stricter definition of El Nino, has not declared it yet. But there is every chance it will in the coming months.

Whenever it arrives, El Nino is likely to be grim weather reading for Australia – turning the recent La Nina conditions on their head and bringing scorching conditions that could potentially lead to drought, bushfires and heat temperature records.

Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday that El Nino was in the house.

Marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in a key area of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator called “Nino 3.4”, the weather pattern last occurred in 2018-19, and takes place every two to seven years on average.

Earlier this year, sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area of the Pacific Ocean monitored (boxed) were still cooler. Picture: NOAA

These sea temperatures are now much warmer, leading to El Nino. Picture: NOAA

El Nino, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation climate driver. La Nina, meaning “little girl,” is its colder counterpart, where sea surface temperatures at Nino 3.4 are lower than normal

“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said NOAA climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux.

“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino,” she added.

Most of the warmest years on record have occurred during El Ninos, and scientists are concerned that this summer and next could see record temperatures on land and in the sea.

Ocean temperatures have begun rising in a key area of the Pacific which is a sign of El Nino. Picture: NOAA

Mariana Paoli of relief agency Christian Aid said: “Poor people are already being pushed to the brink through droughts, floods and storms caused by the burning of fossil fuels and now they will be facing the supercharged temperatures of the El Nino effect.

“These people are the worst affected by climate change but have done the least to cause it.”

Australia has not declared El Nino

Australia is still on officially on “El Nino Alert”, which is one step away from a full declaration.

Earlier this week the BOM said there was now a 70 per cent chance of El Nino forming according to its methodology.

“While the models show it’s very likely the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Nino levels during winter, we have seen some movement in the atmosphere towards El Nino conditions,” BOM Senior Climatologist Catherine Ganter said.

NOAA and the BOM are the two global meteorology agencies that most look too for El Nino and La Nina declarations.

NOAA calls El Nino when sea surface temperatures at Nino 3.4 are 0.5C warmer than normal with conditions expected to last for another five months at least.

The BOM needs it to be hotter – as much as 0.8C.

Suppressive effect on Atlantic hurricanes

The phenomenon’s influence on the United States is weak during summer but more pronounced starting from late autumn through to spring, NOAA said in its statement.

By winter, it is estimated there is an 84 per cent chance of a “greater than moderate” El Nino developing, and a 56 per cent chance of a strong El Nino.

The Bureau of Meteorology has yet to call an El Nino but La Nina has ended. Picture: BOM

This in turn would typically cause wetter than average conditions in some parts of the country, from southern California to the Gulf Coast, but drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

It also raises chances for warmer-than-average temperatures in northern parts of the country.

Developing El Nino conditions were already factored into NOAA’s hurricane predictions last month.

It has a suppressive effect on hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but typically boosts hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific.