‘Adapt or die’: Nightmare weather coming for unprepared Australia

It’s blighted the Northern Hemisphere for months but now “the summer from hell” could be heading this way and evidence shows we’re not ready.

We can’t avoid natural disasters. And they’re happening more often and with greater intensity. Now Australia is being warned it can only keep its people safe by preparing for the worst – and not just patching things up afterwards.

Australia’s winter was the warmest since records began in 1910. And the shift from flooded fields to parched paddocks has been startlingly abrupt as the El Nino weather pattern begins to bite.

But that’s nothing compared to the globe-spanning heatwaves, drought, fires and flash floods experienced by the Northern Hemisphere this year.

A man stands ready to fight flames as they engulf a hillside on July 27 in Apollana, Rhodes, Greece. Picture: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Burnt sunflowers in a field during a heatwave in the suburbs of Puy Saint Martin village, southeastern France, on August 22. Picture: JEFF PACHOUD / AFP

Now, farmers, emergency services and academics are anxiously anticipating the summer ahead. Is Australia ready?

In 2019, then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison refused to meet with 23 former fire and emergency leaders to hear their warnings for the upcoming fire season. That November, Australia experienced what has since been dubbed the Black Summer.

In 2023, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has refused to release a government-commissioned report into the soaring national security risks of climate-related disasters. This summer, Australia will likely get to experience what they are anyway.

And all the warning signs are there.

The Northern Hemisphere is still in the grips of what climate scientists call “the summer from hell”. And they’re saying it’s just a taste of things to come.

The elderly are expiring in un-airconditioned homes.

Workers are dropping dead in the open.

Children are getting burns from the pavement as they walk home.

Electrical infrastructure is overheating.

Dams and lakes are drying.

Crops are dying.

And unstoppable forest fires have been burning since April.

This is in the US. In Canada. In Spain. In France. In Italy. In Greece. In India. In Japan. In China.

Firefighters try to control fires in a pine forest near the city of Lac, Albania on August 22. Picture: Adnan Beci / AFP

As summer shifts south, Australia’s next.

“Never has the destructive force of climate change revealed itself so widely across the globe, and the explosion of climate-fuelled disasters has given billions of people a first-hand understanding of their ferocity — and impact,” says Council on Foreign Relations climate fellow Alice Hill. “The sudden explosion of record temperatures carries a warning for humans: adapt or die.”

Smoke from the McDougall Creek wildfire in British Colombia, Canada on August 16. Picture: BC Wildfire Service / AFP

A high level thermal scan image from the British Columbia Wildfire Service shows the smoke column from the Lower Adams Lake fire in British Columbia, Canada on August 16. Picture: BC Wildfire Service / AFP

Clear and present danger

While the Albanese government refuses to release even a sanitised version of its Office of National Intelligence (ONI) climate impact investigation, other Australian groups have also been tackling the task.

One, The Australian National University’s (ANU) Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, has been conducting a series of presentations addressing the looming crisis.

The ANU’s Head of Disaster Solutions, Associate Professor Roslyn Prinsley, says Australia desperately needs a national Disaster Resistance Authority.

“Like a world war, climate change is a threat to people, law and order, stability, quality of life, the economy and health infrastructure,” she says. “But it’s worse. The extreme events caused by climate change have other impacts.”

ANU has been addressing the looming crisis facing Australia. Picture: ANU

In 2019-2020, the Black Summer fires killed or displaced three billion native animals, burned an area equivalent to Belgium and hospitalised thousands from smoke pollution. Less visibly, she adds, it also doubled the nation’s greenhouse gas output.

Gippsland Fires. CFA Chief officer Steve Warrington inspects the damage in Buchan after a bushfire struck the town. Friday, January 3, 2019. Picture: David Crosling/Herald Sun

Australia has proven it can take dramatic action to address dire threats. “We’re very worried about war with China. Some $358 billion will be spent into the 2050s – averaging nearly $14 billion per year – on the AUKUS nuclear submarines,” states Prof Prinsley.

The climate threat has been equally well-defined.

The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority has warned Australia must invest $3.5 billion each year to limit the damage from increasingly frequent natural hazards.

“What they suggest is that simply responding to disasters after the fact is likely to cost 11 times more,” Prof Prinsley explains.

But future-proofing is not politically popular. In the 20 years to 2022, $24 billion was spent on disaster recovery and relief efforts. Only $510 million was spent on resilience projects.

The ratio of reacting to disasters and future-proofing against them is skewed. Picture: ANU

Now, climate disasters are anticipated to cost Australia $73 billion annually by 2026.

“We are already seeing vast destruction forced by extreme weather over the last few years,” Prof Prinsley says.

“The recent bushfires, floods, hail storms and cyclones, and we expect these extreme events to become worse and more frequent. We cannot keep picking up the pieces. We need a new way of thinking.”

An age of disaster

“Although climate scientists have long predicted an increase in such extreme weather events, some have recently expressed alarm at the sheer speed at which the climate is changing,” writes Ms Hill.

“Society’s new-found personal experience of climate catastrophe can, and should, serve as a propellant for increased adaptation efforts. But whether widespread calamity will push governments and political leaders to act more forcefully on climate, including adaptation, remains an open question.”

As the world and Australia heats up, more measures need to be put in place. Picture: ANU

The 1.5C degree cap on global warming agreed to by the world in 2015 was breached for the first time in July. And, according to research, the risk of extreme bushfire events has already left 25 per cent.

A study published in the science journal Nature last week examined the changing nature of fires between 2003 and 2020. Machine learning techniques were used to analyse the link between each region’s higher average temperatures and how fast fires spread.

It found areas previously on the moist side of the risk curve were now being rapidly pushed over the brink.

The Earth’s surface has already warmed 1.2C.

Disasters events are set to increase as the world overheats. Picture: ANU

Under the increasingly unlikely “low emissions” scenario of 1.8C warming, this trend indicates a 59 per cent increase in the probability that any given fire will become extreme by the end of the century. Under the “worst-case” scenario, that figure soars to 172 per cent.

But bushfires are just part of the picture, warns Prof Prinsley.

“Our new normal is increasingly frequent, severe extreme events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, bushfires, tropical cyclones, sea level rise, giant hail storms in southeast Australia, as well as experiencing combinations of these together.”

That means worse floods in fire-ravaged countryside. And more deaths from weather-damaged infrastructure.

“So that’s our new normal. That’s what we’re facing,” states Prof Prinsley.