THE LAST SAY: Why James McDonald, James Cummings hold key to punters’ fortunes

No matter where you’re betting today, Ray Thomas thinks you’ll be on a winner with the Godolphin’s Blue Army. Here’s the late mail for racing right around the nation.

Ray Thomas

4 min read

August 17, 2024 - 8:47AM

Trainer James Cummings (left) has a host of chances in Sydney and Melbourne today, with jockey James McDonald on several at Rosehill. Picture: Reg Ryan / Racing Photos

Champion jockey James McDonald is the “go-to’’ rider for punters once again when he partners six favourites at the Rosehill meeting on Saturday.

McDonald’s rides include The Extreme Cat ($3, Race 2), Intervarsity ($3.80, Race 3), Lost ($2.60, Race 4), Tom Kitten ($3.40, Race 8) and Etna Rosso ($4.20, Race 9).

Lost and Tom Kitten are from the Godolphin stables of trainer James Cummings who is well represented at Rosehill with his four entries all at the top of TAB Fixed Odds betting including Tarpaulin, the $3.30 favourite for the Listed $200,000 The Rosebud (Race 6) and Sequestered ($3.50, Race 5).

James Cummings' thoughts on Tarpaulin and Tom Kitten + @RayThomas_1's tips, inside mail, big bets, market movers, sectional stars and trial pointers for Rosehill tomorrow ðŸ‘‡

What's gambling really costing you?https://t.co/NDxassiyyo
— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) August 16, 2024

Cummings also has the classy Pericles as the $2.90 favourite for the Group 2 $300,000 Lawrence Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield.

At Doomben, Brisbane’s premier trainer Tony Gollan has a powerful entry including six favourites – Barbie’s Sister ($1.60, Race 2), I See You Coming ($3.90, Race 4), Nanagui ($3.80, Race 5), Brereton ($4, Race 6), Rockribbed ($3.10, Race 7) and Madame Odette ($3.30, Race 8).

Queensland trainer Tony Gollan has given some sage advice to over-analysing apprentice Emily Lang as she settles in to life riding in the city. @TrentonAkers @tonygollan https://t.co/qVMh5Y8UHc
— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) August 16, 2024

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ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Mild, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 20c.
Track: Soft (6)
Rail: True

CAULFIELD
Weather: Cool, cloudy day with a high chance of showers mainly in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 15c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: Out 9m entire circuit

DOOMBEN
Weather: Warm, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Heavy (9)
Rail: True

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Cool, cloudy day with a high chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 16c.
Track: Heavy (8)
Rail: Out 3m entire circuit

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BE WARY
The Rosehill rail position is back in the true after being out 7m two weeks ago. With the drying track conditions, it should provide an even surface although it is likely to be an advantage closer to the inside rail. Caulfield’s good (4) track should race evenly but factor in the possible impact of showers that are forecast for later in the day.

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ROSEHILL GARDENS

THE BEST BET
LOST (Race 4 No.8) resumed at Warwick Farm on the final day of last season and was very impressive coming from last, storming through the field and scoring by a widening margin of more than two lengths. She ran fast sectionals to win that day, drops 1.5kg to 57.5kg, James McDonald stays with her, and she is protecting an unbeaten second-up record.

THE NEXT BEST
With the scratching of Up And Under, LORD OF BISCAY (Race 10 No.15) looms as the one to beat. The former English galloper ran an eye-catching race at his Australian debut, finishing fifth after striking trouble in the straight behind Iron Man over 1200m here. The step up to 1400m suits and he has drawn barrier one. Given even luck in running, Lord Of Biscay will go close.

VALUE BET
ONE AYE (Race 9 No.14) is racing in the best form of her career including a fast finishing win at Randwick before an unlucky third in the Forbes Cup. She is in a tough race but drops 4kg, handles soft tracks and is great each way appeal around $19.

THE WHISPER
GETAFIX (Race 1 No.3) was our “whisper” last week but was scratched on race morning. I’m going to stay with Getafix who is a promising three-year-old fitter for a solid first-up fourth behind Mayfair in a strong form race last month. He has since trialled very impressively at Hawkesbury last week and will be hard to beat.

EXPERT TIPS
• James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens

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CAULFIELD

THE BEST BET
PERICLES (Race 8 No.1) is a top class performer as he demonstrated again last autumn when runner-up in the Doncaster Mile and Futurity Stakes at Group 1 level. The Godolphin five-year-old is resuming in the Lawrence Stakes but has been readied with two solid Sydney barrier trials. Pericles, winner of nearly $4 million prizemoney, is suited at weight-for-age and has a good first-up record. The one to beat.

NEXT BEST
SUNSET DREAMING (Race 1 No.8) ran a blinder when resuming, running on strongly to just miss over the Caulfield 1100m trip three weeks ago. She showed promise last spring winning the Eureka Stockade and proving competitive at Group level. Fitter for her excellent comeback run, this looks a suitable race.

VALUE BET
THE OPEN (Race 9 No.8) has raced very consistently through winter, winning four of his six starts. He is effective on all track surfaces, comes out of barrier eight after the scratchings, and is very genuine. The Open is value odds around $4.20 for his showdown with Elouyou.

THE WHISPER
ARKANSAW KID (Race 7 No.8) was a Blue Diamond placegetter at two then returned last season to win at stakes level and record multiple Group and Listed placings. There is some “noise” about how well he has been going in preparation for his four-year-old return prompting Everest speculation. The one to beat in the Regal Roller Stakes.

EXPERT TIPS
• Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Caulfield

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 1: Dawn Service $3.10-$2.30, Autumn Glow $4-$3.40 with bets of $3,000 at $4, $2,000 e/w at $3.80/$2
Race 2: Peace Officer $7-$6, Dr Evil $10-$8
Race 3: Intervarsity $4.40-$3.80, Lisztomania $6-$5, Super Norwest $8-$6
Race 4: Lost $3.30-$2.60, Piastri $4.20-$3.90, Gitalong $10-$4.80, Way To The Stars $10-$5
Race 5: Sequestered $6-$4, I Am Famous $4.60-$4.40, Nanshe $6-$5.50
Race 6: Tarpaulin $3.90-$3.40 with bets of $2,200 at $3.90, $2,100 at $3.80, Brave One $6-$5.50, Shangri La Express $13-$7, Astapor $17-$10
Race 7: Terra Mater $5-$4.20, Kazou $5-$4.60, Cavalier Charles $6.50-$5.50, Kibou $9-$7.50, Bubba’s Bay $9-$7
Race 8: Tom Kitten $4.40-$3.40, Amor Victorious $5-$3.40 with a place bet of $2,210 place at $2.30
Race 9: Etna Rosso $5.50-$4.20 with a bet of $2,290 at $5.50
Race 10: El Rocko $14-$5.50, Lord Of Biscay $14-$4.80, Noble Conqueror $12-$6

CAULFIELD
Race 1: Sunset Dreaming $4.40-$4, Dipsy Doodle $5.50-$4.60
Race 2: Rhapsody Chic $4.60-$2.80, Devoted $4.80-$4.40 including a bet of $3,500 at $4.60
Race 3: Alectrona $5.50-$4, Lovazou $5-$4.60, Cap De Joie $6-$5.50, In Her Stride $9-$8.50 after a $1,000 e/w bet at $9/$3, Fiasco Tess $19-$11
Race 4: Prinzerro $6.50-$4.80, Mansiere $12-$6
Race 5: Interest Point $6.50-$3.50, Blue Stratum $6.50-$4.20, Wonder Boy $6-$4.40, Let’sfacethemusic $7.50-$4.80, Band Of Brothers $9-$5
Race 6: Kuroyanagi $4.20-$3, Drifting $5-$4 with a $2,000 bet at $5, Manolo Bling $9-$5.50
Race 7: Arkansaw Kid $5-$3.70 with a bet of $1,250 e/w at $5/$1.95, Caste $7-$6
Race 8: Pericles $3.20-$2.90, Pinstriped $5.50-$4.80 with a bet of $2,000 a $5.50, Munhamek $7-$6.50, Jimmy The Bear $13-$8
Race 9: Elouyou $2.80-$2.40 with some big bets including $7,000 at $2.50, $2,500 at $2.60, The Open $5-$4.80, Danaustar $9-$7