Shayne O’Cass’s Randwick tips, race-by-race analysis

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday, where three Group 1 races will be contested alongside a major lead-up to The Everest.

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday, where three Group 1 races will be contested alongside a major lead-up to The Everest.

Shayne’s race-by-race comments and suggested bets are below.

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RACE 1: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 (1800m)

John Sargent can win his second Midway in seven days here with the up and coming HOOLIGAN TOMMY (17) who is ‘2511’ in his four starts since running (last) in the Riff Rocket/Ceolwulf ATC Derby. Huge wins there were too. FLYING BANDIT (11) is third-up and ready to devour 1800m on this big track. HUMANITY (2) was $41 into $26 in the El Castello Mile Midway here two and had ‘next time’ written all over him.

BET: Hooligan Tommy to win, box trifecta 2,5,11,17.

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RACE 2: GROUP 3 BREEDERS PLATE (1000m)

TUSCANY (10) was a $1.55m Easter Yearling and deadset $50m stallion if he wins the Golden Slipper. He’s by Zoustar, he’s a half-brother to Schwarz and he has Shantha’s Choice for his fourth dam. Hard to not to be impressed with his win at the official trials – seems James McDonald was. RIPLEY (8), the Silent Witness relation, looks like the ‘big finisher’ of the Breeders’ line-up. RAGING FORCE (7) was very good up along the fence to win his Heat. King Kirk, Crown The King are players.

BET: Tuscany to win.

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RACE 3: GROUP 3 GIMCRACK STAKES (1000m)

MEMO (8) is a Capitalist filly out of the former handy Fastnet Rock mare Notation. Just my own view was that there was no stand-out 2YO filly at the trials this year but I didn’t see any better than Memo. Sad fact is that she drew wide but it is only 1000m and she will at least be out of any trouble. The other (equal) top filly triallers IMHO were ICARIAN DREAM (6), STRADA VARENNA (13) and Bel Mer’s 11th foal, BEL MERCI (3).

BET: Memo each-way, quinella 6,8.

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RACE 4: LISTED DULCIFY STAKES (1600m)

CHINA SEA (8) has got Spring Champion/VRC Debry written all over him and not just because he is with John Sargent. Look at the broodmare sires; Dalakhani, Sadler’s Wells and she is from the same family as Royal Palace (George Moore/English Derby, 1957). Gets the tick for his first-up 9th of 13 in the Ming Dynasty. SWIFTFALCON (3) has two wins and two smashing other runs from four starts. This has come up at the perfect time for him. JUST PARTY (2) had cardiac arrhythmia last start.

BET: China Sea each-way, quinella 3,8.

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RACE 5: BENCHMARK 94 (1600m)

DUCASSE (9), the reigning Carbine Club Stakes winner, has been cursed by barrier 10 (of 12) in the Show County then again in the Cameron which has effectively meant he has had to go back further than what is reasonable. Granted he has 11 of 12 on Saturday but this is the fair and famous Randwick Mile. LITTLE MIX (3) has run terrific races in Australia. His trial was very good and the Mile gives him a winning chance. CAFE MILLENIUM (2) was a first-up forgive.

BET: Ducasse each-way.

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RACE 6: GROUP 1 FLIGHT STAKES (1600m)

AUTUMN GLOW (1) was going to be hard to beat regardless of the draw but barrier 3 made it tougher for the rest, but not impossible. If you’re in the SNOW IN MAY (2) camp, you could make the case to argue that she should have beaten Autumn Glow in the Tea Rose. Me? I am having a throw at the stumps (okay, from the boundary!) with MISS BUSSLINGER (6) who has got Wakeful / VRC Oaks written all over her. She is too well-suited to the Randwick Mile to be the 100/1 outsider.

BET: Miss Busslinger each-way, VRC Oaks futures $26 (win).

• Clinton Payne’s Flight Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 7: GROUP 2 PREMIERE STAKES (1200m)

Right now, for me anyway, the Everest winner is I Wish I Win or GIGA KICK (1) in that order unless Giga Kick comes out and makes a big statement in the Premiere – and he might. What a huge run in the Concorde. What a huge trial after that. Barrier 5 is a gift. BELLA NIPOTINA (7) had run first or second at her last five starts, four of them in Group 1’s and she almost beat I Am Me in the Concorde. THINK ABOUT IT (2) equals respect. Airman the value/blowout from that good draw.

BET: Giga Kick to win.

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RACE 8: GROUP 1 THE METROPOLITAN (2400m)

QUE TEMPESTA (4), the Italian horse in the Harlem colours, left Europe after winning a Group 2 in Milan on Oct 15 last year. The Hayes gelding’s two runs at Caulfield over 1700m and 2000m were the perfect entree(s) for a Metrop. IMMEDIACY (19) has raced 7 times for 3 wins and two fifths in the Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby. He is third-up as well and off two closing/encouraging runs in Melbourne. KALAPOUR (1) is the best horse in the race.

BET: Que Tempesta each-way, box trifecta 1,4,11,19, Daily Double 1st Leg (4), 2nd Leg (11).

• ‘Pressure is a privilege’: J-Mac revels in chase for Group 1 century

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RACE 9: GROUP 1 EPSOM HANDICAP (1600m)

TOM KITTEN (9) has been an Epsom candidate dating back to his 2YO days when he won the Fernhill. The now-gelded Tom Kitten arrives for an Epsom, third-up, off two very good runs over 1400m. Would have liked a better draw but it is what it is. Epsoms always seem to have a place for light-weighted, talented 4YO mares and for me, the NZ 1000 Guineas winner MOLLY BLOOM (14) fits that bill. She had excuses in the Theo Marks. DETONATOR JACK (3) is bombproof (bad pun but true). KOVALICA (4) – barrier one? Hmm.

BET: Tom Kitten/Molly Bloom each-way, box trifecta 2,3,4,9,14.

• Clinton Payne’s Epsom Handicap tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 10: BENCHMARK 94 (1200m)

It’s been exactly 34 years this corresponding meeting where the mighty Triscay won the Flight Stakes. I only mention that to introduce AMUR (11), a son of Snitzel who boasts Geoff and Beryl White’s beloved filly/mare as his fifth dam. This is a typical Get Out Stakes – anything could win. I just thought Amur was overs at $31 for a horse drawn well who has trialled well and was third to Veight in the Sires’. Speaking of well-drawn, barrier 3 for MORAVIA (5) is a total gift. He’s ‘come good now’ too. CORNICHE (1) and RHYTHM OF LOVE (8) are players.

BET: Amur each-way, quinella 5,11.

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s Randwick tips, race-by-race analysis