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Shayne O’Cass’ tips, analysis for Winx Stakes Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday: Ciaron Maher mare to spoil Chris Waller party

Form student Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s Winx Stakes Day meeting at Royal Randwick, presenting his race-by-race tips.

Shayne O’Cass
5 min read
August 22, 2024 - 1:26PM
Punters Previews Randwick for 24-08-24

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s Winx Stakes Day meeting at Royal Randwick, presenting his race-by-race tips.

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• Clinton Payne’s Winx Stakes tips, runner-by-runner analysis

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Race 1: Midway Benchmark 72 (1200m)

SMASHING EAGLE (4) is, and with all due respect, a very one-dimensional horse. The tempo and the timing has to be spot on for him. The tempo looks suitable for him, Midways usually are run truly, and as for the timing, he has James McDonald on. If not now, never again. CHEERFUL LEGEND (1) is at $17 which is big odds for the highest-rated horse in this Midway – a horse that’s won four times at the distance and twice first-up. The drying track is a huge boost to chances. CES SOIREES LA (14) was the eye-catcher in the Bundeena Midway.

Bet: Smashing Eagle to win.

• Joliestar gets chance to put Everest credentials on show

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Race 2: Benchmark 78 (2400m)

STRATHTAY (2), the Chris Waller-trained son of the Chris Waller-trained Preferment, was the run of the race IMHO when he finished a rapidly diminishing two-and-three-quarter lengths fifth to Awesome Wonder and Kureder (who both run here as well). Nothing at all wrong with the two Benjamin Osmond rides on the horse lately but Nash goes on here. AWESOME WONDER (6) has won two from four at the Randwick 2400m but creeps up two and a half kilos for her August 10 win. Still not giving up on OLYMPIC GAZE (8).

Bet: Strathtay to win, Olympic Gaze each-way.

• Clinton Payne’s Spring carnival barrier trials review from Randwick

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Race 3: Highway Handicap (Class 2, 1100m)

All eyes on KREON (16) here. Just for the record, he is $51 to win the Kosciuszko. Yes, I know he is a Gundagai Maiden winner but this horse is on the road to somewhere. We’re paying the J-Mac tax with him in the price department but better to be safe than sorry. Dunn and Rawiller are the Simon and Garfunkel of Highway racing. Enter MILTON ROAD (5), a lightly-raced Darci Brahma who thrashed a subsequent winner at Lismore first-up. ATMOSPHERIC ROCK (1) will be strong late.

Bet: Kreon to win (best bet).

• Star Kiwi could head to Sydney earlier than expected

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Race 4: Benchmark 78 (1600m)

UNLIMITED (13) was a tad unlucky. more than a tad actually, when he finished third at Randwick behind West Of Africa (runs here also) at what was the horse’s second start this preparation. He is galloping towards a win, I wouldn’t second guess Chris Waller but I wish it was 2000m and not 1600m. Stablemate UNUSUAL LEGACY (2) has four wins and a second from six starts. he probably should have won first-up last prep in a very strong Benchmark 78 over 1500m. Bad draw, Nash rides. SWEET MERCY (10) could ambush them all.

Bet: Unlimited each-way.

• Racenet Blackbookers: $51 tip for The Metropolitan

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Race 5: Group 3 Premier’s Cup (2000m)

Kris Lees has won the Premier’s Cup twice in recent times starting with Sense Of Occasion and ending with Mugatoo. He saddles-up KALAPOUR (1) and CLEVELAND (2) in the 2024 renewal. Cleveland would be hard to have on face value I suppose whereas Kalapour is a Tancred winner at WFA and Sydney Cup placegetter after that. REDSTONE WELL (7), TOURISTIC (6) and CANBERRA LEGEND (8) all have a race-fitness edge on these ones at the top of the weights, and I do mean top of the weights! Kalapour’s got 61!

Bet: Quinella 1,7.

• Mitch Cohen’s Blackbook: Horses to follow; Waller’s imposing Winx Stakes hand

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Race 6: Group 2 Silver Shadow Stakes (3yo Fillies, 1200m)

AMEENA (4) won a Bendigo Maiden by four on debut, two starts later she was runner-up in a Group 3 at Flemington and rounded out her first preparation with an honourable ninth of 15, beaten two-and-a-half, in the Percy Sykes. Interesting that James McDonald rode her then and rides her on the weekend. You’ve got to love the form around SILMARILLION (8); third to Gatsby’s, second to Erno’s Cube (runs here), fifth to Linebacker. MANAAL (1) is top shelf but has topweight.

Bet: Ameena to win, Silmarillion to place.

• ‘You don’t get horses of her calibre very often’: Filly excites Curtis

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Race 7: Group 3 Show County Quality (1200m)

Just for context, I have always been an AIRMAN (6) man since I saw him win his debut on the Kensington track one day in June 2022. You don’t win like that unless you’re a Group horse and of course he did graduate to the big time; second to I Am Me in the Sydney Stakes, etc. Everyone is talking up JOLIESTAR (8) as the new Winx. No knock on her but she is a long way off being unbeatable here. OUR KOBISON (14) could just come out and run too fast for all of them.

Bet: Airman to win.

• Yellow Brick on road towards Group 1 tilt in Sydney

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Race 8: Group 1 Winx Stakes (1400m)

SEMANA (10) really came of age from Magic Millions day up until her second to Bella Nipotina in the Tatt’s Tiara. I suppose that grants her residual fitness. We all saw how ready and able she is for this with that stunning trial win at Warwick Farm the other day. Dylan Gibbons knows her well; barrier 5 sealed the deal. That said, you could make a case for the whole dozen here. RIFF ROCKET (5) is a super horse. Unbeaten first-up but a lot of great three-year-old’s have fallen short when they step out into the big time open company WFA Group 1s. DETONATOR JACK (2) is the value.

Bet: Semana to win, Detonator Jack to place, exacta 10 to beat 5.

• Tropical Squall ready for Waller armada in Winx Stakes

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Race 9: Group 3 Toy Show Quality (Fillies and Mares, 1100m)

COMMEMORATIVE (11) is a granddaughter of Mnemosyne whom Darren Beadman steered to win the Silver Shadow Stakes on this corresponding meeting in 2005. This is the big mare’s biggest test to date but the way she won the Denise’s Joy is implanted in my memory. Give her a fast run 1100m and she can just launch. There are a lot of good triallers in this race, chief among them IMHO are the Michael Freedman pairing MUMBAI MUSE (8) and BLANC DE BLANC (12). KIMOCHI (4) has got all ‘the form’ around the ‘good horses’. Ditto that for LADY LAGUNA (1).

Bet: Commemorative to win, Blanc De Blanc to place.

• ‘Absolute machine’: Portelli bullish on chances of Encap, Kimochi, Kintyre

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Race 10: Benchmark 78 (1200m)

SPRING LEE (7) was famously unlucky not to have won first-up. She, by the way, was runner-up to Commemorative in the Denise’s Joy at Scone a mere 17-days after winning (like a champion!) at Canterbury. Picks herself here really. Should she be a bit too short on the day, which is looking likely, I could easily switch the bet to SHARP SHOCK (12). This is his first time to race since the Country Championship Final. Hate barrier 1 for him but if he gets into the open he can swoop.

Bet: Sharp Shock each-way.

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’ tips, analysis for Winx Stakes Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday: Ciaron Maher mare to spoil Chris Waller party

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/tips/shayne-ocass-tips-analysis-for-winx-stakes-day-at-royal-randwick-on-saturday-ciaron-maher-mare-to-spoil-chris-waller-party/news-story/d8945510b479fdbc85bf3a92da7d3bcd