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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday: $3.40 best bet

Ron Dufficy thinks a race maps perfectly for a lightly-raced gelding to salute at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. Get Ray and Duff’s best bets and analysis for the 10-race card.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
August 30, 2024 - 12:59PM
Hold All Tickets - Punters (Episode 45) 31-08-24

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big race chances for the San Domenico meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 8 No.10 AMOR VICTORIOUS

DUFF’S NEXT BEST
Race 4 No.3 ENOTIS

• MORE EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill on Saturday

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R1: Midway Hcp (1800m)

Ron Dufficy: It is a race that lacks depth so I think FORECASTER (6) is beautifully placed here. He’s put two good runs together now at this track at this level – including a last-start third here behind Gold Pattern – so all he has got to do is run the 1800m right out and I think he’s hard to run down. ARTS (3) is the big improver. Obviously the James McDonald booking is significant there. She was held-up at vital stages with more to offer second-up so is a shape improver here. AGITA (5) has always had good wraps won him early. It was too short for him first-up, second-up 1800m looks ideal and a little bit of market support suggests he is fancied. THE CARPET BAGGER (15) is any old odds here but I just think with the featherweight and a dry track, he could sneak into a place at massive odds.

Ray Thomas: AGITA (5) wasn’t suited over 1400m when resuming but he did run on well to just miss a place when resuming at Warwick Farm. Agita showed promise last season and ran fifth in the Queensland Derby. He will be fitter for his comeback run, and he will appreciate 1800m on the bigger track. FORECASTER (6) is very fit and racing well with successive placings in Midways on this track. The step up to 1800m is the query. PROMITTO (1) ran his best race for ages when he beat all but West Of India at Randwick and finds himself in a winnable race. KONING (11) will race on speed and give his backers a sight.

• Arts set to benefit from J-Mac masterpiece

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R2: Merrylands RSL Club Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: I quite like SEQUESTERED (3) here. I think this is her race. She presents beautifully third-up in a winnable race and with even luck she will be hard to beat. VIVY AIR (7) is the danger. She is a nice mare. I just expected a little more first-up but it was probably too short for her at the 1200m so a month and straight to 1500m looks acceptable. IT’S A KNOCKOUT (10) is a nice inexperienced mare heading in the right direction and the thing with her is soft on-pace favours here. ZARROSE (8) has come back really well; much stronger, I just wish there was more speed up front for her.

Thomas: I’m staying with ZARROSE (8). She is chasing a hat-trick of wins after impressive efforts at Newcastle and Randwick. She tends to get back in the field but has a powerful finishing surge. SEQUESTERED (3) is ready to win after two solid efforts for minor placings since resuming. She might be able to settle a touch closer from her good draw and be in the mix. IT’S A KNOCKOUT (10) gave Zarrose something to chase at Randwick and will take running down again. MOUNTAIN TOP (11) has attacked the line strongly to win both races since resuming and, although this is a step up in grade, she gets in with a lightweight.

• SATURDAY MARKET MOVERS: $6 to $3.80 move

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R3: TAB Highway (1400m)

Dufficy: Another race that lacks depth here and I think SUPER NORWEST (2) stands out with recent Highway placings. She has got her foot right on the till and will be hard to beat although 400m is a little query, that is the only negative I could find. DUE CALZINI (13) is one to watch. He is a recent trial winner. He is a young horse who has got talent and I think he is going to be strong late here. VOLCANIC LOVE (1) has credentials with some solid Queensland form without winning but there is also a little query at 1400m. Best of the rest is maybe MISCHIEVOUS MOLLY (10) who is back to dry which could suit her and she does have a little bit of talent.

Thomas: SUPER NORWEST (2) is bursting to win a race, Ronnie. She has looked home in successive Rosehill Midways only to be ambushed late by Lonhro’s Queen and then Intervarsity. Super Norwest is a risk at 1400m but the soft draw helps. RED RAGS TO BULLS (14) hasn’t missed a place in five starts and broke her maiden in emphatic style at Muswellbrook. This is much tougher but she will get all the favours from her good draw. DUE CALZINI (13) was only a two-year-old when he beat the older horses easily in a 1500m Goulburn maiden last season. He’s resuming off a good Nowra barrier trial effort but has to contend with a wide draw. SEBILLA (3) has won successive Scone races, defeating Red Rags To Bulls in one of those wins, but she has drawn right off the track.

• Griffiths and friends’ Compelling case for Kosciuszko

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R4: Campbelltown Catholic Club Hcp (2000m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on ENOTIS (3) here. It was a good tough effort with no luck behind Etna Rosso last start in this grade so I am finding it very hard to oppose him coming into what looks a race that is set right up for him. I have got a very close eye on the import WALTHAM (8). He is an interesting horse. This is his second prep in Australia. I have liked his two trials and I am going to have something on him if he ticks himself off in the yard looking well. FIRST LIGHT (4) wasn’t far away first-up over an unsuitable distance and that month and a trial since has him pretty ready to run boldly. I thought MONARCHS BRAE (9) maybe riding the speed here in a race that lacks it, gives himself a chance to improve.

Thomas: ENOTIS (3) is in great form. He followed his win at Randwick a gutsy effort when he was three wide most of the trip before finishing second to boom stayer Etna Rosso over 1900m here. With even luck in running, he will be in the finish again. I AM THE EMPIRE (12) fought hard against Futtaim at Warwick Farm and is a lightweight chance. WALTHAM (8) is a former Irish stayer having his second Australian preparation. His recent trials have been encouraging so expect him to run well fresh. ALL IN THE MIND (5) can mix his form but he is capable of running well here.

• Shayne O’Cass’s Rosehill tips for Saturday: Cummings to start day on a high

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R5: Cabra-Vale Diggers Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: I like UP AND UNDER (5), Ray. It is a month since capturing pretty well everyone’s attention first-up as a gelding. He is in really good shape this preparation and I think he is hard to hold out. I think his main opposition might come from his stablemate here – UNUSUAL LEGACY (3). He had support before being scratched last week which is a good sign and he was very good at this track and distance first-up last prep. HIGH BLUE SEA (7) gets his preferred dry track here and has his foot right on the till. ZONDEE (6) has the draw to map a lot better than dragging back to last like the other day and is a big improver.

Thomas: UP AND UNDER (5) was in an awkward position back in the field on the rails coming into the straight and never found clear galloping room as he went to the line hard held finishing ninth, beaten less than two lengths, when resuming at Rosehill earlier this month. He’s been kept fresh since that luckless effort so he should still have the necessary “speed” in his legs to prove hard to beat at 1500m. UNUSUAL LEGACY (3) is a stayer of considerable promise. He is vulnerable first-up at 1500m but he will be finishing strongly. CADETSHIP (2) blew the start at Rosehill and must be given another chance. He was tough winning at Randwick first-up.

• Rich pickings for Freedman in Up And Coming Stakes

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R6: San Domenico Stakes (1100m)

Dufficy: GATSBY’S (2) was very impressive looking the new kid on the block with an amazing turn of speed winning first-up and if he reproduces that, he is going to be very hard to beat. STORM BOY (1) is a boom colt. Some may say his trials, although wins, have been inconclusive, but he has got performances on the board and has to be respected. MAYFAIR (6) has got blinkers on after a freshen. He looks a nice colt in the making and hasn’t done too much wrong. PERSPIRATION (5) also appeared a progressive type last prep, resuming off a win and there might be more improvement after this run.

Thomas: I expect STORM BOY (1) will be ridden with intent to hold the rail and lead. He has won both trials this preparation but made significant improvement in the most recent when he comfortably held Caballus at bay. I’m taking him on trust as GATSBY’S (2) has a race fitness edge off his brilliant first-up win in The Rosebud. MAYFAIR (6) is an emerging colt who scored a tough win at Randwick last month then won a barrier trial very impressively between runs. TROPICUS (7) won his only start at Caulfield last season and shaped well in a recent Randwick trial.

• Waller’s gun colt Gatsby’s has ‘come back better than I expected’

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R7: Up And Coming Stakes (1300m)

Dufficy: AUTUMN GLOW (5) could not have created a bigger impression bolting in at her debut and I am suggesting the sky’s the limit, Ray. We will learn more about her on Saturday but looking at that debut run, she is going to be hard to beat. AXIUS (8) is a well-bred colt who beat a subsequent winner with his head on his chest last start. He will go forward and be very competitive again. SHANGRI LA EXPRESS (1) has to give plenty of weight to some nice types here but I think 1300m suits him much better where he gets into a better rhythm. MEDIA WORLD (6) will be better for the run but he is a nice colt set for a good preparation.

Thomas: It’s hard to tip against AUTUMN GLOW (5) isn’t it? The Chris Waller-trained filly was so good on debut at Rosehill two weeks ago and finds herself elevated straight to stakes grade. This is not the strongest Group 3 race and if she avoids equine traffic, she should win again. WANARUAH (2) is a Snitzel colt protecting a perfect record after two starts. He jumps well, races on speed where he makes his own luck and it will be up to Autumn Glow to run him down. AELIANA (7), ENRICHED (4) and AXIUS (8) won well at the midweeks to each their chance at this level.

• Boom filly Autumn Glow heads two-pronged Waller attack

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R8: Bankstown Sports Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: AMOR VICTORIOUS (10) is the best of the day. I think he gets a controlling on-speed position here. This race just maps perfectly for him and he is going to be very hard to run down. CEOLWULF (5) is an up and coming middle distance type who hit the line well first-up. He was very good at the top level last prep without winning and he gets his opportunity to get his winning confidence back here. COMMUNIST (7) from a better draw is a big improver, mapping better. LAND LEGEND (9) probably can’t win on Saturday but I think there might be a big race for him over spring over a bit further. He will run well fresh.

Thomas: I agree, Ronnie, AMOR VICTORIOUS (10) as bet of the day. He resumed in the Spring Preview over 1400m and led for home but was no match for a rampant Tom Kitten. Amor Victorious was under siege over the final 200m but fought bravely to hold on for second. He has a good second-up record and does look a good race for him. CEOLWULF (5) missed the start in Tom Kitten race and still ran on well to finish within three lengths of the winner on the line. Promising horse and will be charging home. RIYAZAN (14) nearly caused an upset at Rosehill last start and he appeals as a lightweight chance. CHARTERHOUSE (6) has had a month between runs since his good effort in the Coffs Harbour Cup.

• ‘Follow with confidence’: Amor wins in store for plunge horse

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R9: Mounties Group Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: Impossible race. I have ended up settling on SHEZANALISTER (9). She has been pretty good in all three runs back. A very fast race this and she’s got the speed just to tack onto the them and have first look at them. I think she’s hard to beat. BUBBA’S BAY (2) is ridiculous odds. She’s so genuine and she is primed third-up now from a good draw so she’ll be around the mark again. THUNDERLIPS (16) really caught the eye first-up, extra distance suits and does strip fitter for sure. WILLAIDOW (12) was handed the race with a soft lead the other day. It won’t be as easy this week but she has got a tremendous will to win.

Thomas: WILLAIDOW (12) made light of his 59kg and controlled the race from the front to win well at Randwick last start. He’s up in grade but is in peak form, drawn well and James McDonald stays with the sprinter. SHEZANALISTER (9) comes out of a very good effort when a close third in the Missile Stakes and that form reads well for this race. BUBBA’S BAY (2) is an under-rated mare with a consistent record. FELIX MAJESTIC (4) finally gets a dry surface and he does go well on this track.

• Rosehill Turf Talk: Mitch Cohen and Shayne O’Cass debate all the big chances on Saturday

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R10: ClubsNSW Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: A bit of a guessing game but I think BLANC DE BLANC (3) is here to run well. She didn’t come up in a couple of runs last preparation, she looked very good as a two-year-old, the trials are good and the James McDonald booking looks positive so I will lean her way. BRIASA (7) is an impressive unbeaten gelding who has good raps on him. Lovely trial and the market suggests that he is hard to beat. HEADWALL (2) impressed, winning well on the heavy by a big space at the midweeks first-up. It is the 1100m for the first time but given his racing style, I wouldn’t hold that against him. BOSTON ROCKS (10) gets a cosy on-speed run from barrier one and will be honest again.

Thomas: BRIASA (7) won each of his three starts in an impressive debut preparation earlier this year. He’s got a fierce determination to win and resumes off a stylish barrier trial win at Rosehill. Talented sprinter who will go close. HEADWALL (2) was monstrous first-up at the Kensington midweeks. He’s yet to miss a place in eight starts, winning four, and he looks hard to beat here, particularly as he gets in well at the weights after the claim. BOSTON ROCKS (10) is an improver down in the weights and coming out of the inside barrier. SEBONACK (4) stuck on well when resuming but his second-up form is a concern.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday: $3.40 best bet

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