NewsBite

Ray and Duff’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosebud Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday: $4.20 best bet

Ron Dufficy is predicting a big day for the boys and girls in blue at Rosehill on Saturday, with a confident play on a $4.20 chance in one of the day’s feature races.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
August 16, 2024 - 12:06PM
Punters Previews Rosehill for 17-08-24

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate all the chances on Saturday’s 10-race Rosehill Gardens card, which features The Listed Rosebud for the new season three-year-olds.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 8 No.6 TOM KITTEN

DUFF’S NEXT BEST
Race 5 No.5 SEQUESTERED

MORE EXPERT TIPS
• Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill on Saturday
• Shayne O’Cass’s Rosehill tips
• Rosehill Turf Talk: Gelding the making of Tom Kitten?

Banner : Racenet IqBanner : Racenet Iq

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R1: Schweppes Handicap (1300m)

Ron Dufficy: Interesting race. I know JUST PARTY (1) is not well weighted here but he’s had a lovely, easy trial. I like the horse, I think there is a bit of depth to his form and he always promised to be better this preparation, so I’m happy to lean his way to beat DAWN SERVICE (5) who is a well-bred colt who showed significant improvement running very fast time at Hawkesbury last start. He could easily go on with the job with a race fitness edge. GETAFIX (3) has had a lovely tick-over trial since his first-up run and AUTUMN GLOW (7) is another beautifully-bred filly who has looked the part at the trials and gets in here very light and looks well fancied.

Ray Thomas: GETAFIX (3), a striking grey trained by John O’Shea and Tom Charlton, won well on debut at Kensington, then was spelled after finishing unplaced in the Todman Stakes. He resumed at Rosehill last month and ran on for fourth behind Mayfair in a strong form race. Getafix loomed as a likely challenger halfway down the straight and will be improved by the run. He has since trialled very impressively at Hawkesbury and will appreciate getting to 1300m. But he’s got some serious opposition including DAWN SERVICE (5), the runaway Hawkesbury winner last start, boom first starter AUTUMN GLOW (7), and promising colts JUST PARTY (1) and IMPERIAL FORCE (2).

• Berry to see specialist as he races clock to ride at Rosehill

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R2: Midway Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: Typically tough Midway. I am going with the consistency of DR EVIL (2) here. He is just so genuine. He rarely runs badly. He thrives on inside draws where he is a little bit more adaptable and I’m leaning his way. I think SATNESS (8) can improve. He just had to withstand a little bit of pressure up front there the other day and got tired so I still think he has got more to offer. FORECASTER (4) did a great job in the lead-up, doing work and sticking on well. THE EXTREME CAT (3) did it well winning the Midway last time. He is up in weight from a wider draw and I am not sure it we get a wet track with him so there are a few little doubts about him.

Thomas: I’m also with DR EVIL (2), Ron. He comes off successive Midway second placings over the Randwick 1600m course and looks hard to beat. The soft 6 track surface suits – the wetter the better for Dr Evil – and he’s drawn to get the right run. PEACE OFFICER (1) is slowly working his way back into form and there were encouraging signs last start when third over 1400m here. PUTT FOR DOUGH (5) has been racing consistently through winter in this grade and will be in the finish again. THE EXTREME CAT (3) is chasing a hat-trick after wins at Hawkesbury and Rosehill but has to overcome an awkward draw.

• ‘Magnificent Seven’ to step out at Rosehill

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R3: TAB Highway (1300m)

Dufficy: I know she has got a horror draw but I think INTERVARSITY (14) will take a lot of benefit out of that last run. She was just raw and green and I think outside horses this time, you might see the more finished article. LISZTOMANIA (3) has been close-up at this level in two runs back and is pretty genuine. SUPER NORWEST (15) is similar, he’s honest, threatening to win a Highway and gets an opportunity here. The best of the rest, I thought, was PROPHET’S DAUGHTER (13) who is trialling up okay and is a bit of a query first-up.

Thomas: ACHESON (22) is sixth emergency but is getting closer to a start after four early scratchings. If he happens to make the field, he looks the one to beat after three successive wins including an impressive effort at Gundagai in heavy going last start. Emerging sprinter and can win again if he gets into the field. LISZTOMANIA (3) is ready to win. He has been narrowly beaten in two Highway runs since resuming and gets his chance here. SUPER NORWEST (15) raced on speed and tried hard when a close second in a Rosehill Highway last start and rates highly again. INTERVARSITY (14) had no luck when resuming but had won his other two starts convincingly. Promising type but has drawn off the track.

• Saturday Market Movers: $15 to $4.60 firmer at Rosehill

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R4: James Squire Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: I’m going to have something on at odds here in THUNDERLIPS (4). I liked his two trials, there looks to be good pressure up front here and he might just run on strongly at double figure odds. WAY TO THE STARS (1) has got a huge weight but he is a very sharp running type who should give a big sight for a long way. LOST (8) was good winning first-up and looking more like the finished article. She was a little bit raw and green last preparation but could go on with the job. PIASTRI (10) has been impressive winning two from three in Melbourne this preparation and has to be considered.

Thomas: LOST (8) showed her quality when she came from back in the field and powered home to win by a widening margin of more than two lengths when resuming at Warwick Farm. It was a dominant effort under a big weight and she is protecting an unbeaten second-up record. The one to beat again. PIASTRI (10) is in top form and comes off an easy win at Caulfield last start. Trainer Ciaron Maher had Piastri entered for Melbourne but elected to switch him to Sydney. WAY TO THE STARS (1) has to shoulder plenty of weight but he is a first-up and distance specialist. GITALONG (9) has run competitively from outside gates in both Melbourne starts since resuming and has finally drawn a barrier here.

• McEvoy on a winner with budding star at Rosehill

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R5: Kia Ora Prague Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: I like SEQUESTERED (5) here, Ray. I think she had a few little excuses there first-up where she hit the line well late. She won second-up last preparation and I think 1400m suits her better so she is ticking most boxes. Stablemate NANSHE (9) gets a set of blinkers and James McDonald sticks which probably counts for plenty. She will run well again. I AM FAMOUS (8) is a well-bred mare heading in the right direction. I like the way she did it at both ends winning last start. No reason why she can’t go on with it. I expected a little bit more from HELLAVADANCER (2) last start but she was still far from disgraced and has to be in the mix again.

Thomas: I AM FAMOUS (8) has reeled off three consecutive wins since resuming and seems to be getting better with racing. She controlled the race from the front and comfortably held her rivals at bay over this course and distance last start. She is creeping up in the weights but can keep winning. SEQUESTERED (5) didn’t get a lot of galloping room in the straight but still worked to the line strongly when resuming for a close third at Randwick. She does go well second-up, too. NANSHE (9) chased hard when a close second to I Am Famous last start and meets her rival 2kg better at the weights. JUNQUEIRA (3) is racing well enough to be competitive this grade.

• ‘I had no idea what to expect’: Vardy Thoroughbreds founder’s winning move

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R6: The Rosebud (1100m)

Dufficy: I like TARPAULIN (4). I just think he is a good-looking prospect. He has been dominant on the wet tracks over the winter months and that race fitness edge has to count for something. GATSBY’S (2) is a neat colt who has had a good rap on him since day one. A lovely recent trial suggests he is ready to make a statement first-up. HIGH OCTANE (3) has also had his two trials where he has been good late so I think he will be stronger than most at the finish. SHANGRI LA EXPRESS (1) went up big odds for a good colt. I know he has got to give away a big weight and a sticky draw but the odds now appear right.

Thomas: BRAVE ONE (8) really impressed me on debut. He settled outside Mayfair and kept the pressure on the leader before forging clear for a dominant win at Randwick in a strong form race. Brave One’s had more than a month between runs but had a barrier trial last week when he was narrowly beaten by Gatsby’s. Brave One is promising and looks nicely placed on the limit weight. TARPAULIN (4) is flying with successive heavy track wins at Warwick Farm and Randwick, and is the deserved favourite. GATSBY’S (2) very promising and trialled brilliantly against Brave One. WINNING PROPOSAL (7) is an underrated filly and can run well at big odds.

• Gatsby’s great chance to show spring credentials

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R7: Toyota Material Handling Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: I am going with the consistent TERRA MATER (6). She looks to have a pretty good set up with a couple of trials where she has been unextended and gets a cosy on-pace run. She is quite likeable. CAVALIER CHARLES (4) was back to winning form, bolting in at Grafton after that six weeks break with the big weight, indicating that he is in form. BUBBA’S BAY (1) did enough first-up and usually comes on well second-up and gets the claim and a good draw. KIBOU (3) is a query. He didn’t come up at his past couple of preparations but his trials have been okay and he is quite capable if right.

Thomas: TERRA MATER (6) is a talented mare. She won three straight over summer then contested the Provincial Midway Championships series, claiming a heat at Newcastle before finishing unplaced in the final. She resumes off two smart trials and always sprints well fresh. CAVALIER CHARLES (4) stormed home to win at Grafton and this race sets up well for him. SNEAKY PAIGE (9) finished fast to just miss behind the in-form Fleetwood which reads well for this race. KAZOU (5) didn’t get the chance to lead and dictate like she prefers last start but gets James McDonald here and is worth another chance.

• Bella Nipotina Everest slot deal imminent as Royal Ascot plan tabled

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R8: Precise Air Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on TOM KITTEN (6) here. He’s been gelded this preparation and it looks a beautiful start off race for him with that inside draw, racing a little closer than normal, and with clear running he is very hard to beat. The horse he has got to get over is AMOR VICTORIOUS (10) who gets a potential soft lead here. We know he is hard to beat if that is the case. CEOLWULF (3) is a good stayer in the making after being runner-up in the Rosehill Guineas and ATC Australian Derby. I liked his latest trial, I think he is here to sprint well fresh. HINGED (4) looks beautifully placed in a race like this with the 3kg claim.

Thomas: TOM KITTEN (6) has been flying in his trials. He was strong through the line again to reel in Zardozi in a recent Rosehill trial even though he wasn’t tested in the sprint to the finish. Tom Kitten did race well fresh to win over 1300m first-up last spring and he looks to be back to that sort of form again. AMOR VICTORIOUS (10) loves to bowl along at a decent tempo and his recent trials suggest he is close to his best form. He will give Tom Kitten something to chase. COMMUNIST (5) has class and is another trialling very well. He’s a big improver. Hinged is a proven mare with a good fresh record and she is effective on rain-affected going.

• Waller’s one-time Melbourne Cup fancy Francesco Guardi to resume at Rosehill

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R9: Rosehill Bowling Club Hcp (1900m)

Dufficy: Tricky race. I am going with the lightly-raced ENOTIS (9). I just think he has probably got more upside than most being a lightly-raced five-year-old. He is primed third-up off a comprehensive win. I know he is up in class but I will go his way to beat UNANIMOUS (2) who is the forgotten horse here. He was heavily backed last start and pulled out of the race with cardiac arrhythmia so we can always forgive that and his previous form shapes right up. He’s massive odds. MATUSALEM (16) got the job done and did his confidence the world of good last time so he should run well again. MONFELICITY (13) fits in quite nicely. She is third-up now, a little jar out of the track suits her, and she’ll run well.

Thomas: In a race of many chances, I’m going wide with the underrated mare ONE AYE (14). She has never been racing in better form including her fast finishing win at Randwick and then her closing third in the Forbes Cup under a big weight. She drops 4kg here, handles soft tracks and has each way appeal around $19. ENOTIS (9) comes off an impressive win at Randwick and third-up should be at his peak now. MONARCH’S BRAE (11) is another racing consistently and will get the run of the race from his good draw. MATUSALEM (16) ran down Monarch’s Brae last start and his chances soar the drier the track conditions.

• ‘He was ready to go’: Sydney Bowler sidelined for Spring

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R10: TAB Handicap (1400m)

Dufficy: It was hard to miss UP AND UNDER (8)’s first-up run as a gelding when he couldn’t get clear running behind Secret Plan. There is a big chance he might want further now but I am just finding it hard to get away from him so even though I think he will be better at a mile-plus, hopefully he is still fresh enough for this. I think there is a big danger in LORD OF BISCAY (15). I thought this import did more than enough at his Australian debut over an unsuitable distance, running right through the line late, so a definite saver there. HIGH BLUE SEA (12) is ready now third-up. He doesn’t want it too wet. He wants a drying track and he fits in somewhere. ZONDEE (9) is a yard and market watch. He did a good job last preparation and has been gelded.

Thomas: We are on the same page with UP AND UNDER (8) and LORD OF BISCAY (15). Up And Under was bolting behind a wall of runners in the straight and went to the line untested. He looks to have returned in good order and although he is staying at 1400m, he didn’t have a tough run last start. Lord Of Biscay caught the eye at his Australian debut when he also didn’t have any luck in the straight and should have finished much closer than fifth to Iron Man. Lord Of Biscay will appreciate getting out to 1400m and further. CADETSHIP (4) handled the heavy conditions to win well first-up and can only be improved. NOBLE CONQUEROR (16) charged home to finish a close third at Canterbury and although he is coming back to 1400m he drops from 59kg to 55kg.

Originally published as Ray and Duff’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosebud Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday: $4.20 best bet

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/tips/ray-and-duffs-racebyrace-tips-analysis-for-rosebud-day-at-rosehill-gardens-on-saturday-420-best-bet/news-story/67070449718393a4514e213367ef3167