Newmarket Handicap 2016: History stacked against Chautauqua in Victoria’s premier sprint handicap

WILL Chautauqua reach rarefied air in Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap, or will he be confined to a doomed division like grand speedsters Hareeba and Lankan Rupee?

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - FEBRUARY 20: Dwayne Dunn riding Chautauqua defeats Damien Oliver riding Terravista (r) and Glyn Schofield riding Japonisme (ctr) in Race 7, the Black Caviar Lightning during Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day at Flemington Racecourse on February 20, 2016 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

WILL Chautauqua reach rarefied air in Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap, or will he be confined to a doomed division like grand speedsters Hareeba and Lankan Rupee?

Much has been made of Chautauqua’s historical challenge in needing to carry 58kg to victory in the Newmarket, a feat achieved only three times in 57 years.

On face value it looks a damning stat, but those three winners have come in the past quarter century: Shaftesbury Avenue in 1991, Black Caviar 2011 and Hay List in 2012.

In that time, only 13 runners have contested the race carrying 58kg or more.

So rather than seeming like the Mt Everest challenge the raw statistics suggest, it has been achieved by almost a quarter of the horses to try it since 1991.

Still, the successful trio were no ordinary horses. Shaftesbury Avenue, like Mahogany a few years later, was one of our most versatile stars, winning Group 1 races from 1000-2000m and running third in a 2400m Japan Cup.

Black Caviar speaks for herself and if Peter Moody’s freak had never been born, there’s little doubt Hay List would have been a Hall of Fame contender himself.

Chautauqua will be in elite company if he can defy Saturday’s rivals, who are headed by a trio of speedsters from the yard of Australia’s premier Group 1 trainer, Chris Waller. Chautauqua has been luckless in three attempts to win a Group 1 up the Flemington straight.

Chink in armour? Chautauqua still hasn’t won over the 1200m journey at Flemington. Picture: Getty Images

His fans make a case to say he should have won all three.

Regular rider Dwayne Dunn believes the grey will improve sharply after his last-gasp Lightning Stakes win. “At the weights you would say he can’t (win),” Dunn told Racing.com this week. “Good horses defy that and he’s a lot fitter, 1200m suits him so much better and I think he has a lot more plusses than he has minuses.”

Dunn said Chautauqua had a quiet jumpout this week, which will bring his fitness on sharply.

Dunn described the outside draw as “superb’’.

“It gives me an opportunity to put him into open air and hopefully we see that awesome sprint. It’s sensational to watch and even better to be on board him,” he said.

Chautauqua was easy with UBET on Friday, drifting to $2.60 as money came for Japonisme, who is trying to join Weekend Hussler and Brazen Beau as Coolmore Stud Stakes winners to claim the Newmarket the following autumn.

Dwayne Dunn has described Chautauqua’s wide draw in the Newmarket Handicap as “superb”. Picture: Getty Images

Originally published as Newmarket Handicap 2016: History stacked against Chautauqua in Victoria’s premier sprint handicap