Melbourne Cup 2019: Lloyd Williams doubts favourites chances

Lloyd Williams knows a thing or two about winning the Melbourne Cup and he doesn’t like what he sees in the favourites.

On the eve of the Melbourne Cup, prominent owner Lloyd Williams has delivered his opinion on a host of runners in the race, including his verdict on the favourites.

Speaking with RadioTAB’s Steve Hewlett, Williams said he didn’t view the top two in the market — Mer De Glace and Constantinople — as winning chances.

READ: Ultimate Melbourne Cup 2019 guide

Take a look at what he had to say about his three runners, the two favourites and a number of other notable contenders in the Cup.

MER DE GLACE

“You’ve got to have opinions in racing, I’ve been around so long I’ve got a lot of opinions, but I don’t think he can win and he’s going to start favourite. He doesn’t look like a proper stayer to me. He looks like a mile-and-a-quarter horse on a good, fast track. The Caulfield Cup, a mile-and-a-half, is not a tough test. I’m not sure whether he’ll go 3200m. For me, I’d probably be standing him out if I was a bookie.”

Mer De Glace will be chasing the Cup double.

CONSTANTINOPLE

“He’s a good horse. I’d be surprised if he wins. He’ll probably be better in 12 months’ time. That would be my view of him, he’s a bit immature. He’s got a few bad habits, but David (Hayes) might have settled him down. He’s a no for me.”

CROSS COUNTER

“I wouldn’t take any notice of his run in the Irish St Leger. It was a slowly run race. You had probably at least four horses having a run, preparing for the Melbourne Cup. Now, I’m not saying they weren’t trying, but they weren’t being knocked about. Anyone that’s looking at the form of the Irish St Leger needs to be careful in the way they’re assessing it. So when you see Charlie’s (Appleby) horse in that race, he ran home OK.

The only thing I’d say about Charlie’s horse, in each of his runs over there this year, he’s been running a bit like that. Not an enormous turn of foot at the moment. But the horse has changed a lot in condition. He’s a much stronger horse, than the horse we saw 12 months ago as a three-year-old. He’s quite a heavy horse. He’s sweating up a lot actually, I don’t know where he’s developed that from, but he’s sweating up when he’s actually working.”

MAGIC WAND

Jockey Ryan Moore rides Magic Wand during a trackwork.

“I’ve got a lot of respect (for Magic Wand). That race (the Cox Plate) was 2040m. Think about the first 1420m of that race. She went 14 lengths quicker than the three-year-olds went in the Vase. You saw the Vase winner come out and run third in the Derby. Brad Rawiller (aboard Black Heart Bart) didn’t do her much good on the horse that sat on his outside and annoyed him. I thought Magic Wand had a chance to win that race. I would have liked Brad Rawiller to go home, because he was giving his own horse no chance doing what he was doing and it certainly ruined any chance Magic Wand had.

She’ll run well. She’s a Galileo horse. She should get the trip, you don’t have to worry about that. I don’t like her if it’s a Slow 7. She needs to be on good ground. If it’s not wet, I think it will run two, three, four or five. I don’t know if it will win, but I think it’s in that area.”

FINCHE

“I thought his run in the Caulfield Cup was OK. He had to do a bit of work from a wide alley. He’s probably going to be somewhere around the money.”

IL PARADISO

“I would have thought next year. I think he’ll run OK, but I’d be surprised if he wins.”

HUNTING HORN

“I don’t give it any chance, so don’t ask me any more about it. It had its birthday at Moonee Valley.”

SURPRISE BABY & VOW AND DECLARE

Vow and Declare running at Flemington.

“If I can’t win I’d like to see one of those blokes win.

Certainly Surprise Baby has to be in the hunt, because he has won at two miles. I know the Adelaide Cup is very ordinary form this day and age … but he’s going to be in the run.

I think Danny (O’Brien) is a very good trainer, he’s got a private training place at Barwon Heads, he conditions his horses well. It was a very good run in the Turnbull first-up, ran well in the Caulfield Cup. Ran as well anything in the Caulfield. The question for me, does he stay? He ran second in the Caulfield Cup at 2400m.

“He went up to your way (Brisbane) and won a 3000m race, which I don’t rate at all, in June, the Tatts Cup. I reckon I could have won that, it was a very ordinary group of stayers. So I don’t know if he stays 3200m. He’s by Declaration Of War, which is a horse Aidan (O’Brien) had. He won at York, the Juddmonte, a 10-furlong race. He’s out of a Testa Rossa mare, you wouldn’t have thought he’d be a two-miler. But I’d love to see him win for Danny O’Brien.

Probably if you were pushing me, I’d say Surprise Baby would beat Vow And Declare home.”

ON HIS THREE CHANCES: LATROBE, MASTER OF REALITY AND TWILIGHT PAYMENT

“I can tell you I’ve got two horses that can run very well. Latrobe will run well and Master Of Reality will run well.

“If he (Master Of Reality) could win, nothing would give me greater pleasure with Frankie (aboard). He’s a really old friend of mine. I was talking to him from Santa Anita earlier, he’d just finished riding in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s very excited about getting down here, he desperately wants to win a Melbourne Cup. He’ll (Master Of Reality) be around the pace (in the run). Frankie is a very instinctive rider and I won’t be telling Frankie to do anything.

Both of those horses are very well.

“Hughie Bowman rides another one for me in the race, Twilight Payment. I’d be surprised if he could win, but stranger things have happened.”

This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission