The Final Word with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

BEST BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at Randwick and Doomben on Saturday.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 09: Jason Collett rides Alberto Magic to win race 4, The Ken Callander Fellowship Handicap, during Sydney Racing at Rosehill Gardens on May 9, 2015 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Anthony Johnson/Getty Images)

ALBERTO Magic and Sense Of Occasion are the standout selections on a day for mudlarks at Royal Randwick.

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy agree this pair should justify race favouritism and keep punters happy on a competitive Randwick program.

In Brisbane, Thomas and Dufficy believe Our Boy Malachi and Scissor Kick will fight out the finish of the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 although they differ on who will win the big race.

ROYAL RANDWICK

RACE 4: TOYOTA MATERIAL HANDLING HCP (1400m)

Thomas: I’m going to take the gamble on Mirage, Ronnie. He was a stakes winner two years ago, won his only start in Hong Kong, and has had two runs back after a long break. He’s fitter now but I concede he has no wet-track form. Boss Lane ran well last start, has had a month between runs but he races best at Randwick. Tough race.

Dufficy: I like Got The Goss. He was very good winning the Wagga Town Plate and his record of seven wins from 10 starts speaks for itself. He has won his only start on a heavy track, too. Got The Goss did defeat Loved Up at Wagga and that filly has since franked the form by winning the Scone Guineas. In an ideal world I’d prefer a good track but I’m comfortable with Got The Goss in the going. Beauty’s Beast has good wet-track form and I’m wary of Beyond Thankful. He’s a tough stayer resuming but he does go very well on wet tracks.

Got The Goss will be hard to beat again. Picture Gregg Porteous

RACE 5: GET WELL GLENN HCP (1200m)

Thomas: This is another competitive race but I like God’s In Him at the odds. God’s In Him had an easy trial on Monday, he goes well fresh and he handles rain-affected going. I like him each-way from the in-form Melbourne raider Charles In Charge and Forget, a noted first-up performer and superior wet-tracker.

Dufficy: Anything can win this race. I’ve got to forgive Impulsive Spirit for his failure on that bottomless track at Hawkesbury three weeks ago. He was very impressive first-up at Warwick Farm before that and I have him on top from the very fit and consistent Grande Punto. Maddhal is a wet-tracker who landed some good bets when he won first-up at Warwick Farm.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

RACE 6: W.J. MCKELL CUP (2400m)

Thomas: Sense Of Occasion chased home a very good horse in Silverball in the Lord Mayor’s Cup two weeks ago. It was a continuation of his excellent form in three starts since resuming from a let-up. He has never struck a heavy track but on soft going he has always performed well. Major Major and Destiny’s Kiss are mudlarks suited at 2400m and Rezoned ran very well at Scone last week.

Dufficy: I think this is a Joe Pride-trained quinella here with Sense Of Occasion and Destiny’s Kiss. Sense Of Occasion has done nothing wrong this campaign, he maps well and looks very hard to beat. I’m comfortable gambling on him getting the 2400m on a heavy track. Destiny’s Kiss is back to the distance where he has always raced well and he does love the heavy. I’ve got a big watch on Rezoned as I think she is right on track for the Stayers Cup (3200m) in two weeks. Major Major is the other big chance. He is hard-fit, racing in great form and also loves wet ground.

RACE 7: SYDNEY MARKETS HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Alberto Magic was dazzling first-up at Rosehill, careering away from his rivals to win over 1200m. I feel he is better suited coming back to 1100m here where he can take a sit behind the flying Holder Sunset early. Alberto Magic has a near faultless record on wet tracks and is a sprinter with a future. He’s my best bet on Saturday. If there is to be an upset it could be Alias. This sprinter goes very well fresh and is unbeaten on heavy tracks.

Alberto Magic is a promising horse and he loves the wet. Picture: Simon Bullard

Dufficy: Alberto Magic might be the one of the best wet-trackers on the program. I opposed him first-up as I thought he was a risk at 1200m but he proved me wrong. I’m happy to eat humble pie and jump back on him here. He is a promising horse and these wet tracks suit him. Holder Sunset is very fast but the last 50m will be her problem. Earnest Ernest will be running on. As for Alias, he didn’t trial like a 1100m winner but Joe Pride is a master trainer so I’m not going to second guess him.

RACE 8: SAVE OUR SONS HCP (1400m)

Thomas: This is the hardest race of the day. I’m going wide here with Villa Splendido at big odds. I liked her run first-up behind Sense And Reason, she will be fitter, has been placed at her only previous heavy track start, and at $26 she is great value. Karakuchi is in great form, I think You Are Golden will run well and Esprit’s Choice will enjoy these track conditions.

Dufficy: Impossible race. Like you, Ray, I’m also going for an outsider here in Crooked Stick. You have to forgive her first-up run where she was hampered by a riderless horse and got too far back. She won second-up on a heavy track last preparation and from her inside barrier here she will get the run of the race. By the final race, I think the jockeys will overdo it trying to get out wide and Crooked Stick will save ground and be in the finish. You Are Golden was the first horse backed on Wednesday from $18 to $16, which is usually a good sign, but I didn’t like the way she hung in during her trial. Copy is a mudlark and I rate her the big danger although I’m worried the race tempo may be against her. Karakuchi is flying, no knock on her, but she is another who needs a genuine speed.

DOOMBEN

RACE 5: GRAND PRIX STAKES (2020m)

Thomas: Bachman is jumping from 1400m to 2020m third-up, but he is the one to beat. He hit the line well when third to Najoom in the Hawkesbury Guineas and he is a promising young stayer. In a race of many chances, Jumbo Prince, Master Of Arts, Inauguration, Sadler’s Lake and Quick Strike can win without surprising.

Dufficy: I’m with you, I’m keen on Bachman. I like the way Gerald Ryan is preparing him with the eye on the big prize, the Queensland Derby in two weeks. Bachman is third-up here, out to 2020m, he’s got a good barrier and will get the right run, and is close to double figure odds. He’s a good gamble and hard to beat. Sadler’s Lake has the tactical speed to get across form his wide barrier and he has struck winning form. There is a big tip for the Melbourne horse, Master Of Arts, and Quick Strike is an improver.

RACE 8: DOOMBEN 10,000 (1350m)

FIELD/BETTING: MATT STEWART’S ANALYSIS

Thomas: Our Boy Malachi was beaten as favourite when third in the BTC Cup last start but I think he can bounce back here. He should get into a nice rhythm over the 1350m and we know this horse is a fierce competitor. Scissor Kick is a Group 1 winner in waiting. This might be his day. Rock Sturdy is a chance at big odds and Srikandi is drawn to get the right run.

Scissor Kick gets his chance to grab a group 1 win on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

Dufficy: I’ve gone the other way, Scissor Kick from Our Boy Malachi. Scissor Kick was back in distance and on a dry track and it was totally against him last start. His 1200m days are behind him. Scissor Kick is back to 1350m and, with the jar out of the track, I’m leaning his way. Our Boy Malachi raced a little flat second-up last start after a tough run first-up and I expect him to run a big race. The best long shots are Rock Sturdy and Big Money. Rock Sturdy is well drawn and ran well last start. Big Money showed significant improvement second-up last start and likes Doomben.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

Randwick

Race 2, No. 3: Better Not Blue

Race 6, No. 5: Sense Of Occasion

BEST VALUE

Race 8, No. 7: Crooked Stick

Doomben

Race 1, No. 6: Hvasstan

Race 5, No. 3: Bachman

Originally published as The Final Word with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy