DAMIEN OLIVER: Why there’s an upset brewing in the 2024 VRC Oaks

The Wakeful Stakes has traditionally been the key guide to the Oaks, but champion jockey Damien Oliver is leaning towards the Sydney form this year.

The Wakeful Stakes has traditionally been the key guide to the Oaks, but I’m leaning towards the Spring Champion form line out of Sydney this year.

There’s two reasons why. I like how three of the fillies in this Oaks ran against the boys in the Spring Champion and the two “stars” of the Wakeful – Treasurethe Moment and Powers Of Opal – have sticky barrier draws this time compared to the Wakeful.

In the Wakeful, Treasurethe Moment drew four and Powers Of Opal had barrier six. They had lovely runs and fought out the race. This time they’ll need more luck from barriers 12 and nine respectively.

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No doubt they both went well in the Wakeful, especially that turn of speed Treasurethe Moment showed at crunch time, but this is a stronger race.

In recent years, the Oaks has tended to be thin with two or three main chances, but this time it’s got depth. I could make a real case for five or six runners.

I’m leaning to Harlem Queen, who ran fourth in the Spring Champion at Randwick over the 2000m – the same distance as the Wakeful – last Saturday week.

I really liked her run up there and she gets Blake Shinn and a lovely barrier (five).

El Castello keeps on winning and is now a Group 1 winner! He takes the Spring Champion Stakes for @ACummingsRacing under @JoshuaParr8 🏆 pic.twitter.com/2qEtjFLnFa

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 26, 2024

• Yulong chasing lucrative Oaks win on two fronts

Some may question the Spring Champion form after El Castello’s Derby run last Saturday, but I don’t. He drew wide and was really disadvantaged by that. I still thought his run was good under the circumstances.

If I’m giving Harlem Queen a big chance, then Pleasure Artist and Rag Queen are value runners, too.

They didn’t finish far behind Harlem Queen and, as I said, I really respect fillies who run well against the boys.

Speaking of value, I’m surprised you can get $23 or so for Inevitable Truth, who is a stablemate of Powers Of Opal (both trained by John Sargent).

Cometh the horse, cometh the moment 🤩

TREASURETHE MOMENT books her spot into the Crown Oaks after winning the HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes.

🎥 @wwos | #DerbyDay | #MelbCupCarnivalpic.twitter.com/i1z4rzVTIJ

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 2, 2024

• Clinton Payne’s VRC Oaks tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

She drew a wide gate in the Wakeful, but she comes into one this time and should land in a much better spot for Jye McNeil. She looked like a true stayer to me in the Wakeful and I think she’ll run a big race.

Too Darn Discreet is racing in fantastic form. I’ve got no knock on her and she should sit handy and give herself every chance.

The one query is her tendency to lay-in under pressure. She’s got away with it lately, but she’ll need to get it right at the end of the 2500m in an Oaks with plenty of depth to it.

DAMIEN OLIVER’S OAKS SELECTIONS
Top tip: HARLEM QUEEN (3)
Value: INEVITABLE TRUTH (1)

• Damien Oliver writes for us courtesy of Ladbrokes.

Originally published as DAMIEN OLIVER: Why there’s an upset brewing in the 2024 VRC Oaks