The Final Word with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy on the big races at Warwick Farm and Caulfield on Saturday

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Sport Radio’s form guru Ron Dufficy discuss the big races at Warwick Farm and Caulfield on Saturday.

Ray Thomas

6 min read

February 27, 2015 - 8:10PM

SYDNEY’S first Group 1 race of the year, the Chipping Norton Stakes, has attracted an outstanding field, but can hot favourite Contributer be beaten at Warwick Farm?

The Chipping Norton meeting ushers in eight consecutive Saturdays of Group 1 racing in Sydney and is the unofficial start of the autumn carnival.

At Caulfield, there are three Group 1 races — the Blue Diamond Stakes, Oakleigh Plate and Futurity Stakes.

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Sport Radio’s form guru Ron Dufficy discuss the chances in all the big races at Warwick Farm and Caulfield on Saturday.

WARWICK FARM

RACE 2: SKYLINE STAKES

Thomas: Only seven runners but an intriguing race with some very highly-rated colts in this field. I like Exosphere. He looked very good at Kembla Grange and has always been highly rated by the Godolphin stable. Sebring Sun should have won last start and rates highly, Wolf Cry is an improver and Mogador, a stablemate of Exosphere, is right in the race.

Dufficy: It is getting to the stage now where these horses have to perform if they are going onto the Golden Slipper — you don’t want them to be putting in a bad run now. Exosphere has a bit of X-factor about him. He looks a big brute of a thing. When he beat stablemate Mogador at Kembla last start, I know the market suggested Mogador might have been the better of the two but you can’t deny the dominance of Exosphere’s win. The horse that ran third that day and was a “furlong’’ back was Takedown and he won at Hawkesbury on Thursday to frank the form. Exosphere is the one to beat but this is a good race and I’m not saying he is over the line. Sebring Sun was very unlucky last start, Wolf Cry is promising.

RACE 3: SWEET EMBRACE STAKES

Thomas: Always Allison was very good on debut, has the rails barrier here and is a dominant favourite but I feel she is short enough in betting now. I’m not knocking her but I can’t back her at $2. This is a very open race but I like a couple at each-way odds, Racy and Heavenly Hand.

Always Allison is a short-priced favourite in the Sweet Embrace Stakes.

Dufficy: Always Allison has had three trials and a race and won them all. She is just a winner. She went to the trials off her first win and looked like she has really come on with that race start. I expect her to win. Speak Fondly was OK in the Gimcrack and is trialling well enough. Circular was beaten in a very strong midweek race and is an improver.

RACE 4: SURROUND STAKES

Thomas: I know First Seal is the obvious pick but she is a cut above these. With even luck, she should win. Her first-up run was excellent when things didn’t go her way during the race. The step up to 1400m is ideal and my colleague Nic Ashman told me the filly produced a sensational gallop at Randwick on Tuesday morning. Impossible to tip against First Seal for mine. Winx ran on well along the worst part of the track in the Light Fingers Stakes, Peggy Jean can improve and Adrift was very good last start.

Dufficy: First Seal is a class act and the best bet of the day. She was beaten by track bias first-up and she should atone here. I might take a quinella with Winx — hers was the hidden run last start. Clear-cut First Seal with the saver a quinella First Seal and Winx.

RACE 6: CHIPPING NORTON STAKES

Thomas: This is a super field and I’m sure we will keep referring to the form from this race right through the autumn. I keep coming back to Contributer. He was absolutely brilliant in the Apollo Stakes and going to 1600m should suit him. I can see him getting the run of the race behind Ninth Legion and Weary. Contributer’s main rivals like Lucia Valentina and Silent Achiever are going to be giving him a start from the turn and I can’t see how they will run him down. Ninth Legion will lead for a long way.

Contributer was brilliant in the Apollo Stakes, but can he back it up on Saturday?

Dufficy: There won’t be much speed in this race and like you, Ray, I can’t imagine Contributer getting dragged back early. He will make his own luck while Lucia Valentina needs all the luck. I think the form out of the Apollo Stakes will hold up and Contributer wins again from Lucia Valentina and Silent Achiever, who is very good second-up, and the big improver is He’s Your Man. I have a massive watch on Hartnell — his trials have been very sharp. This race also revolves around weather and I’m working on a good to dead track but if it gets closer to heavy, then Weary comes into play.

CAULFIELD

RACE 5: FUTURITY STAKES

Thomas: Dissident was too good for a similar field in the Orr Stakes last start, he’s the class horse of the field, the proven weight-for-age horse. This is the same course and distance today, and same result.

Dufficy: Hard to tip against Dissident — he is up and running, in winning form and on his home track. This is not a betting race for me. I won’t take the odds-on Dissident but I can’t back anything to beat him.

RACE 6: PETER YOUNG STAKES

Thomas: The return of the Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist holds most interest. He could be vulnerable first-up at 1800m but what can beat him? I’ve ended up going for Spillway as I thought his first-up run behind Dissident was pretty good. Happy Trails is second-up at 1800m but he was just behind Spillway in the Orr Stakes and is right in this race.

Dufficy: The Orr Stakes was a hard race to read because there were so many disappointing runs behind Dissident so the form for this is all over the place. This all depends on how this race will be run — will they run along or will it be a sit-sprint affair. I’m not betting in this race, either, but I am tipping Protectionist. Happy Trails is next best and I’m looking for dramatic improvement from the Chris Waller-pair Bagman and Beaten Up now they are getting up in distance.

Protectionist resumes in the Peter Young Stakes on Saturday.

RACE 7: OAKLEIGH PLATE

Thomas: As always, the Oakleigh Plate is wide open. I like Earthquake. She is unbeaten in three starts at Caulfield and her recent trials suggest she has returned in top order. I know she has drawn awkwardly in 11 but her career best effort came in the Blue Diamond last year when she drew 15 and blew her rivals away. I think the fillies and mares can dominate here with Atmospherical, Vain Queen and A Time For Julia also hard to beat.

Dufficy: I like A Time For Julia here at good odds. She always races well fresh, she’s drawn well and has the right weight. I’m All The Talk is very fast and his trials in Sydney have been super. He is a terrific chance. Iconic also goes well fresh and Vain Queen is my fourth pick.

RACE 8: BLUE DIAMOND

Thomas: You might think I’ve lost my marbles, mate, but I’ve gone away from the obvious selection, the favourite Fontiton. I know she has done everything right in her three wins, she has the rails barrier and looks bombproof but I am leaning to Pride Of Dubai. I thought his effort to close late on Of The Brave last start was outstanding and he can only improve with the experience. In a high-pressure Blue Diamond I can envisage this colt charging to the line. Lake Geneva will need luck from her wide barrier but she looks a talent, Fontiton must go in there somewhere and Sampeah is the big improver.

Dufficy: I’m keen to bet in this race and I reckon, Ray, there are only four hopes. I agree with you in that I can’t back Fontiton — I think she is too short. I know all the ratings people have her on top and she ran fast time last start but I am taken with his filly from Team Hawkes, Lake Geneva. She will be disregarded by the Melbourne betting ring and we might get $16 or $20. I’m happy to be on her. You have to trust your eye and Pride Of Dubai savaged the line last start. He will take great benefit from his Caulfield experience. The only other chance is Stoker.