The Final Word with Ray and Duff

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Sports Radio’s form guru Ron Dufficy discuss the big races at Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Sports Radio’s form guru Ron Dufficy discuss the big race chances at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

RACE 3: DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500m)

Thomas:Leebaz was competitive first-up in a Group 1 weight-for-age race, drops in class to a more suitable race on Saturday and he has a very good second-up record. Leebaz is my bet of the day, I’m very keen on him. San Diego has come back in great form but the race tempo may be against him here. Rudy was never on the track last start but he has drawn out wide again.

Dufficy: I was leaning to Leebaz as well. He was fair first-up in a Group 1 race and like you said he has good second-up statistics. This is more his style of race and 1500m suits. San Diego should be at his peak third-up and I really liked Excess Knowledge’s win under a big weight first-up. Rudy was a total forgive run last start. Bull Point has plenty of talent but he has been a disappointing horse and I’ve gone off him.

RACE 4: EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500m)

Thomas: Catkins is a wonderful mare and ticks just about every box here — except her odds. She is very short at about $1.80 and I just can’t back her at those odds. The mare I do like is Amanpour. She is great value at $17 here. She had no luck first-up and will strip fitter. I like her wide barrier because she is a go-forward type and this gives her the chance to get into her rhythm.

Dufficy: I’m inclined to agree. Catkins is too short for me, she is getting into her preparation now and history says her best form is early in her campaigns. I loved Amanpour’s first-up run, she was buried in the field and was just warming to her task late. She was ready to wind into it. She did have two solid barrier trials prior to that run so the sprinting edge was off her. Amanpour won second-up last preparation and I quite like the look of her in this race. She will push on from out there and will take plenty of running down.

RACE 5: STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: Tough sprint race, pretty open for mine. I didn’t mind Generalife as he is good first-up. Tahitian Black is always over the odds and will run another good race. Rain Affair has the cut in the ground which he enjoys and although he may not be the horse he was, he could get an easy lead on Saturday. Sidestep has a stack of ability, Target In Sight was good first-up, and I’m interested to see Decision Time finally back at the races. Generalife in a race of many chances.

Dufficy: Godolphin and James McDonald combine with Generalife and they don’t usually get it wrong but I’m going the other way here with the stablemate Sidestep. I liked the way he was made to hit the line in his latest trial which suggests the stable wants this horse nice and sharp for Saturday’s race. With most guessing that McDonald, the stable jockey, is on the other Godolphin runner, Sidestep may get out to good odds. I think they have really wound Sidestep up for this race. I’m tipping a stable quinella, with Sidestep on top.

Sidestep, centre, could upstage his stablemate Generalife.

RACE 6: VINERY STUD STAKES (2000m)

1. FIRST SEAL John P Thompson James McDonald (7) 56kg

2. SET SQUARE Ciaron Maher Craig Williams (12) 56kg

3. AMICUS Chris Waller Tim Clark (8) 56kg

4. WINX Chris Waller Tommy Berry (6) 56kg

5. THUNDER LADY (NZ) John Sargent Tye Angland (9) 56kg

6. SLIGHTLY SWEET Jason Coyle Ms Kathy O’Hara (3) 56kg

7. SWEET AND SPEEDY Peter G Moody Brenton Avdulla (10) 56kg

8. ADRIFT (NZ) Gai Waterhouse Damien Oliver (5) 56kg

9. BALLET SUITE Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy (13) 56kg

10. FENWAY Lee & Shannon Hope Blake Shinn (11) 56kg

11. LADY MACAN David Payne Glyn Schofield (14) 56kg

12. WILDENSTEIN Paul Perry Michael Walker (1) 56kg

13. HEAVENS ABOVE Tim Martin Jason Collett (4) 56kg

14. MISS INTERIORS Anthony Cummings Nicholas Hall (2) 56kg

CLICK HERE: VINERY STUD STAKES FIXED ODDS

Thomas: First Seal was gallant in defeat in the Coolmore Classic last start after having a tough, wide run. She is an outstanding filly and at set weights back against her own age, she is a clear standout. First Seal’s only previous run at 2000m was in the Spring Champion Stakes where she fought off Sweynesse in a fast-run race only to be run down late by Hampton Court. I have no issue with First Seal at 2000m on Saturday, Ronnie. Winx was brilliant against the “boys” last start but First Seal has had her measure all season. Adrift has blinkers on and will appreciate getting out to this distance as will the Victoria Oaks winner Set Square.

Dufficy: Maybe First Seal’s record isn’t saying it yet but I still feel she is a star. She should be unbeaten this preparation. She was beaten by bias first-up, was absolutely dominant against the fillies in the Surround Stakes, then was unlucky in the Coolmore Classic last start. Everything collapsed around her in the Coolmore and she had to make her run too soon. As it was, she was beaten in the last bound. All things being equal on Saturday First Seal will win against her own age and sex at set weights. I’m looking for a big Oaks trial from Set Square, I love the timing with her, but I feel First Seal is too good for her at 2000m. Expect improvement from Adrift, a Zabeel filly with the blinkers going on. The tempo could be a problem here but First Seal is versatile and looks a beautiful horse to ride. Winx will be suited by a slower speed as she has a very good turn of foot. In summary, First Seal by a margin.

Set Square will relish the 2000m on Saturday. Picture: Colleen Petch

RACE 7: THE BMW (2400m)

1. PROTECTIONIST (GER) Kris Lees Craig Williams (12) 59kg

2. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Glen Boss (9)59kg

3. BEATEN UP (GB) Chris Waller Glyn Schofield (7) 59kg

4. OPINION (IRE) Chris Waller Tye Angland (4) 59kg

5. EXTRA ZERO David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Michael Walker (1)59kg

6. FAST DRAGON Bruce Wallace Damien Oliver (5) 58.5kg

7. TO THE WORLD (JPN) Yasutoshi Ikee Nicholas Hall (6)57.5kg

8. HARTNELL (GB) John O’Shea James McDonald (3) 57.5kg

9. SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) Roger James Kerrin McEvoy (8)57kg

10. LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ) Kris Lees Jim Cassidy (2) 56.5kg

11. RISING ROMANCE (NZ) Donna Logan SCRATCHED (10) 56.5kg

12. HAMPTON COURT Gai Waterhouse Tommy Berry (11) 54kg

CLICK HERE: THE BMW FIXED ODDS

Thomas: If the hype around the Japanese runner To The World is to be believed, he just wins this race. He is obviously an outstanding horse but he is first-up at 2400m and I just feel he might be a slight risk. I’m going for Hartnell. He has been very impressive in his two Australian starts including a dominant win in the Sky High Stakes last start. His form is at 2400m and further is excellent overseas and I think he is primed for this race. Protectionist will improve now he is out to a distance and Lucia Valentina will appreciate the give in the ground.

Dufficy: They all said this race wouldn’t be as strong when they took $1 million off the prizemoney but this is a top quality field. I’m intrigued To The World is starting off at 2400m when his “grand final” is at 2000m in two weeks, and he has only ever raced on fast tracks, but these Japanese horses can do the unbelievable. To The World has only raced on fast tracks but from what I’ve seen and what I’m hearing, he only has to step in the yard and parade well to win this race. Not only win it, but destroy this field. I know he is not a Group 1 winner, but he is a serious racehorse. He did run a champion in Gentildonna to less than a length in the Arima Kinen and there would be no betting if Gentildonna was in Saturday’s race. I’m happy to bet up on him and double the bet if he walks in the yard and looks well. The vibe is so strong about this horse. I think To The World wins clearly, Hartnell runs a clear second, and the pack fights it out for third.

To The World has reportedly settled in well at Canterbury. Picture: Gregg Porteous

Thomas: What about Protectionist?

Dufficy: I’m looking for him to do something on Saturday. I want to see him run on hard from a Sydney Cup point of view. Protectionist, Who Shot Thebarman and Hartnell are heading towards the Sydney Cup, which is shaping as a great race, so I’ll be watching their runs closely.

RACE 8: TULLOCH STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: This race is loaded with young, unproven stayers with obvious potential but will they be competitive in the Derby next week or are they just the B-graders? I like Ruling Dynasty, Ronnie. He looked very good at Kembla Grange last start. Diamond Valores is about ready to fire and Hauraki obviously goes better than Sydney direction.

Dufficy: Diamond Valores is a big, strong three-year-old and he’s needed recent racing. I really like him on Saturday. I’ll be backing him and having a saver on Ruling Dynasty. Like you Ray, I was very impressed by his last start win.

DUFF’S BEST BETS

Race 6, No.1 First Seal

Race 7, No.7 To The World

NEXT BEST

Race 8, No.2 Diamond Valores with a saver on no 9 Ruling Dynast

THE BMW TRIFECTA

Duff’s selections

7 To The World for the win, 8 Hartnell to run second, then 1,2,3,4,5,9,10 to run third

Ray’s selections

Box trifecta numbers 1,7,8,10

Originally published as The Final Word with Ray and Duff