Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy agree that punters should give Better Not Blue and Mirage another chance at Rosehill.

Photographer: Simon Bullard. Race 4 EREMEIN HANDICAP (3YO&UP) - 1800m. \\Winner 'Ecuador' ridden by Danny Beasley.

BETTER Not Blue and Mirage are set to rebound off costly last-start defeats and return to winning form at Rosehill Gardenson Saturday.

Both come out of the Randwick meeting three weeks ago when Better Not Blue ran fourth to Tree Of Jesse while a wayward Mirage cost himself victory when run down by Beyond Thankful.

But The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy agree that punters should give Better Not Blue and Mirage another chance at Rosehill.

RACE 2: MCGRATH REAL ESTATE AGENTS HCP (1200m)

Thomas: I’m going to give Better Not Blue another chance. He was disappointing at Randwick last start but I’m putting that down to the very heavy track conditions. I just don’t think he got through it that well. He did have a month between runs going into that race so I think there is improvement in him. His first-up run in the Gold Coast Guineas was a blinder. Lockroy is consistent but finds it hard to win, Grunderzeit has raced well at both runs this time in and Skripchenko’s form is impossible to fault.

Dufficy: This meeting comes down to the weather — if we get any rain overnight it could mean the difference between racing on a soft 5 or a track closer to heavy. However, I’m also prepared to give Better Not Blue another chance. I see where he was nominated for a longer race and was a late nomination for this, which does concern me a little. I felt at Randwick he just didn’t adjust to the slowly run race. He pulled his head off and he didn’t conserve any energy. I think this is behind their thinking by racing him in the 1200m event as the tempo should be more genuine for him. I also feel Kipling, who had support first-up, is one to watch. He didn’t have a lot of room in the race won by Skripchenko last start and is a big improver.

RACE 4: TAB REWARDS HCP (1400m)

Thomas: Mirage was going to win for sure at Randwick last start before he veered off the track and threw it away. He has since trialled in a nose-roll and raced truly, winning by seven lengths. I’m hoping the gear change does the trick because if he goes straight, he is the one they have to beat. Most of his main rivals like Rugged Cross and You’ll Never are backmarkers who have been suited in recent runs by fast-run races. I don’t know if they will get that tempo here. In saying that, both are in tremendous form and have to be included among the main chances. Mighty Lucky back to 1400m from the soft draw will run his usual honest race.

You’ll Never, a winner of his past two starts, will charging home late.

Dufficy: I know he does a lot wrong and I know he has had three runs back in Australia for no wins but I feel Mirage is the bet of the day. He only has to go straight to win this race. I loved his trial since his last run and he ticked that wet-track box at Randwick. I’m comfortable with Mirage — he’s bet of the day. I can’t really find a danger because if Mirage doesn’t win I don’t know where to go. Mirage can either lead or sit outside maybe King Cobia, he will be in the first three making his own luck.

Thomas: In your experience, Ronnie, the difference between blinkers and a nose-roll? Is it mainly about giving a horse more peripheral vision?

Dufficy: Mirage has been lifting his head and running off the track so the nose-roll should help him keep his head down and concentrating on what he is doing. With the blinkers off he will get full vision so let’s hope it works. He did look pretty sharp in the trial.

RACE 5: CELLARBRATIONS HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Straturbo each-way here. He is a very good first-up horse. He was being readied for the June Stakes last week but had a slightly elevated temperature on the Thursday morning and forced him out of that race. Speaking with trainer Gary Portelli during the week, he is really happy with Straturbo and said the horse galloped well on Tuesday morning. I’m hoping the track surface isn’t too bad because Straturbo, a noted first-up performer, is over the odds for mine. Brook Road and Kristy Lee are the dangers.

Dufficy: I was worried about the soft track for Straturbo — I would have really liked him on a dry track. I’m looking at a sprinter who will race up on the pace and another who is out the back — Nuclear Class and Kristy Lee. Nuclear Class is a sharp country mare who has quite a good record, winning nine races, she has competed at a good level in the city before, she is good fresh, and if this track is playing well for those up on the speed and invariably over the 100m at Rosehill it is a frontrunner’s “go”, I could easily have something on this mare. I expect Kristy Lee to be charging home. I’m also keeping an eye on Wonderbolt, who is $11 to $4.20. Brook Road is well found in the market but she does have the ability.

RACE 6: SCHWEPPES HCP (2000m)

Thomas: Ecuador was dominant winning over 1800m here last start. He has a high-cruising speed and gets his rivals off the bit chasing him a long way out. He has had three runs back from a spell and goes to 2000m here which suits. I know he has to carry a big weight (60.5kg) but he has the class to get the job done again.

Dufficy: This is a race I don’t really want to have a bet in but I can’t get away from the favourite either. Ecuador did it so easily at Rosehill last start and this race maps beautifully. He leads, cruises then sprints and it is a matter of whether they can catch him — and they probably can’t. I’m leaning his way with the only danger possibly Mr One Eleven. He is up to 2000m here which will suit him better.

RACE 7: TAB PLACE MULTI HCP (1350m)

Thomas: I like God’s In Him in a tough race although I’m not sure where he is going to end up in the run. Where do you have him on the speed map, Ronnie?

Dufficy: God’s In Him could get across if they wanted to but I remember he led one day at Warwick Farm and got run down near the line. He did get back at Randwick first-up but that was in a small field and the leader, Charles In Charge, took off mid-race. Brenton Avdulla is such a great reader of pace, the Hawkes stable don’t really tie jockeys down to instructions, so I think you can trust Avdulla’s judgment to get it right.

Brenton Avdulla will team up with God’s In Him again on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

Thomas: God’s In Him was good first-up at Randwick when he ran down Charles In Charge late on a very heavy track. He has had three weeks to get over that run and can only improve further. He’s a genuine horse and is nicely weighted here in an open race. Grande Punto comes out of the God’s In Him race last start, finishing third, and he is racing well. He is going to get the right run from the inside gate. Rockalong put the writing on the wall at his second Australian start finishing fourth to Aussies Love Sport. Rockalong goes 1350m and looks hard to beat but I have a suspicion he might be better once he gets to 1600m. Aussies Love Sport and Lunar Rise are the other chances.

Dufficy: I don’t mind this race. Trying to read how this race will be run, I can see Moral Victory getting the right run. He was good last start when third to Aussies Love Sport and is third-up here. He will race up on the speed and get everything run to suit. I think he is hard to beat at good odds. Aussies Love Sport, God’s In Him and Rockalong are the dangers. Rockalong was the best run last start but he was $61 and I want to see him do it again. Bascule went awful first-up but his trial since was excellent. I’m very wary of Bascule bouncing back and putting egg on my face.

RACE 8: HYLAND RACE COLOURS HCP (1200m)

Thomas: Fiftyshadesofgrey ran here on Monday and gee it was a run, Ronnie. She was blocked all the way down the straight and should have won. Fiftyshadesofgrey has returned in great order this preparation, the Marc Conners stable is having a great run at present, and I think this mare on the quick back-up will be hard to beat. Two Blue is the big danger. She was very good first-up in the Aussies Love Sport race and is back in a mares race here with further improvement in her. The only negative is I would have liked her to be going up to 1400m but she has drawn a soft gate and is a very genuine mare.

Dufficy: This is a very tough race. There are any number of ways you can go here but I’m thinking Two Blue as well. She stuck on gamely first-up, she gets on-pace favours here and strips fitter. Aerobar has a good chance, Breakfast In Bed is a big watch first-up and Amazon looked very good in a recent trial. Amazon didn’t come up in two runs last preparation but watch the market for her here. I’m going with Two Blue, she’s the one they have to beat.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS AT ROSEHILL

BEST BET

Race 4, No. 7: Mirage

BEST VALUE

Race 7, No. 6: Moral Victory

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy