Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Mike Fraser

PODCAST: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Sports Racing’s form guru Mike Fraser discuss the main chances at Rosehill on Saturday.

Photographer: Simon Bullard. Race 3 PRIMO SMALLGOODS HANDICAP (3YO&UP BM95) - 1100m. Winner 'Cradle Me' ridden by Christian Reith.

THE very heavy track surface at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday will be a thorough test of horse and rider.

Sky Sport Racing’s form guru Mike Fraser said punters should stick with proven mudlarks while warning that jockeys will need to find the right section of the track to make their finishing runs.

“When the rail was out 8m for the July 4 meeting it was an advantage to be inside and handy,’’ Fraser said. “But with the rail shift back to the true, I think the inside will be no good, while 8m out and wider will be very worn.

“The best section of the straight might be a strip about 6m out but we will know a lot more after a couple of races how the track is playing.’’

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RACE 3: BOB INGHAM HCP (1100m)

Ray Thomas: I’m going for King’s Troop if he runs — and that is a big “if”. He is a three-quarter brother to Snitzel and has been super impressive in his three barrier trials, particularly his most recent when he romped away from Inner Circle to win it by seven lengths. There is a doubt about taking him to the races for the first time on a very heavy track but if he does start I think he will win. Voilier hasn’t had an official trial but has won two jump-outs at Warwick Farm and he has won on a soft 7. Inner Circle is highly rated by the Godolphin team, Zoutenant has ability, Next Witness has trialled well, Wudang Mountain is a big watch and I liked Honey Cara’s debut win.

Mike Fraser: I’m with you, Ray, I’m keen on King’s Troop. He looks very good but the concern I have is barrier one. At least we will have had a couple of races run earlier so Brenton Avdulla will have a good idea where the best part of the track is. King’s Troop looks outstanding on his trials. He has a great turn of foot. He put a gap on his rivals the other day and Brenton even cheekily had a look between his legs to see where they were. He looks the real deal to me. Voilier is the clear second pick. I’m buoyed by the fact he has had two jump-outs, he has the right jockey and barrier. I never underestimate race fitness on a day like today so I’m not dismissing Tatoosh as a place chance. Inner Circle has plenty of ability but on the trial I couldn’t tip him to beat King’s Troop. If there are scratchings from this race then I will be looking at Japonisme and Next Witness.

RACE 4: ALPHA FLIGHT SERVICES HCP (1350m)

Thomas: Berry Delicious is in the zone, she is very fit, has got better the longer her preparation has gone, and handles these wet tracks. She defeated the older mares convincingly last start and I’m tipping her to get the job done again. Commanding Wit will be improved by her recent run, Breakfast In Bed ran an eye-catcher last start in a strong form race behind Shiraz and is back against her own sex here, and Sense And Reason is not without a chance.

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Fraser: In what I regard as a difficult race I like Breakfast In Bed. She is third-up and although I concede the 60kg is an issue, she is coming down in grade here. I can see her getting into a nice position early in a race that doesn’t have a lot of pressure. Sense And Reason has run on well in recent starts and goes back to a more suitable 1350m trip. I have no knock on Berry Delicious and I have her favourite but not at the odds currently on offer. She got back to winning form when her race distances got to 1400m and 1500m but is dropping in distance here in a race where there might not be a lot of speed. Transfers might get a soft lead here and could give some cheek.

Berry Delicious will be hard to beat again on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

RACE 5: PRIMO SMALLGOODS HCP (1200m)

Thomas: Shiraz was dynamic first-up, blew his rivals away in a superb return but was it almost too good to be true, Mike? He is second-up here and rises 4kg to 58kg and I just felt he is unders at $2.20. I am leaning towards Cradle Me after her luckless effort when a fast-finishing fourth to the in-form Two Blue at Rosehill. Cradle Me is at her peak now after three runs from a spell, she handles wet tracks and has won three races at Rosehill. Casual Choice and Fireball aren’t out of it, either.

Fraser: I agree with what you say about Shiraz and I’m “potting” it. He did produce a career-best effort first-up but every time this horse wins a race he doesn’t go back-to-back. I’m prepared to bet against him. Mount Nebo had not had a run for seven weeks when he ran eighth behind Shiraz last start. Mount Nebo is a horse that reacts second-up, he is close to the best wet-tracker in the race, and if he is in the first four or five early I feel he will be right in the finish. Casual Choice was terrific when resuming in the Shiraz race and will be fitter. He doesn’t win all that often but is consistent. With Shiraz I also have a concern about the horse repeating and also the fact he is up sharply in the weights. Cradle Me is fully fit now and should get a nice run.

RACE 6: HUNGRY JACKS HCP (1350m)

Thomas: Forget is a big, strong horse who handles weight well and is in very good form. He came from off the speed at Warwick Farm and was dominant late storming past his rivals. He is fourth-up here, he is rock-hard fit and although he does have 60.5kg I have him winning again. Dragon Flyer is a smoky at odds. His two runs back have been good and wasn’t too far behind Forget last start. Footy Fan needs to lead to produce her best and she should get a soft lead here.

Fraser: I like Footy Fan. I tipped her first-up but like you said, Ray, she needs to lead and when she missed the start that day, she settled in behind them in restricted room. She still acquitted herself well to run fourth. Up in distance is a bonus here, she can lead and travel nicely off the bit. I’m learning towards her again at around $10 — she’s good value. Forget is the danger as he has continued to improve this preparation. He always goes well fourth-up, gets through the going and Blake Shinn to ride. Dance Of Heroes has trialled really well and Chris Waller has put Hugh Bowman on him so I’m not letting that horse under my guard. Radical Impact is the other chance.

RACE 7: WINTER STAKES (1400m)

Thomas: I keep coming back to Two Blue, Mike. This mare is a little beauty — she gets up on speed, makes her own luck and is tough to run down. She was just caught by Haussman in the Civic Stakes last start but the winner had the lovely run from the one gate, didn’t go around a horse, and only just edged out Two Blue — and they put a margin on their rivals. Two Blue can either lead or take a sit if something goes hard early, the 1400m is no problem and neither is the heavy track. I’ve got her on top from You’ll Never who is racing very consistently. Rugged Cross and See The World are going well but they were well beaten by Two Blue last start.

Two Blue will be tough to run down in the feature event.

Fraser: I thought Winona Costin might have gone a fraction too keenly on Two Blue last start and Haussman got up underneath to win. There isn’t a lot of pressure here so Two Blue will either lead or settle second, she gets through the ground and I feel she will bounce back to winning form. You’ll Never is back to his preferred 1400m, wet conditions suit, he can settle a little closer from the good draw and is definitely the one to beat. Rugged Cross has been racing very well without winning but from barrier one he is going to be a great run. Wouldnt It Be Nice is hard to catch and 1400m is as far as he wants to go but he has the figures to bounce back.

RACE 8: FORUM GROUP HCP (1500m)

Thomas: I can’t say definitively Marenostro would have beaten Hollywood Bound last start but he would have gone very close. Marenostro was checked at a vital stage then when he was checked off heels and got to the outside, Hollywood Bound was already full of momentum and racing clear. Marenostro had won his previous three starts and is absolutely flying this winter. Grande Punto and Richard The First are also racing consistently and Danjeu is the knockout runner.

Fraser: There is no doubt Marenostro should have just about won last start and I’ve also got him on top along with the same trifecta. Marenostro was luckless at Rosehill, goes up a little in the weights, James McDonald goes on and I can see him settling right up on the speed enjoying the run of the race. Grande Punto has been up a while but continues to race well. Good draw here and will get the right run. I think Richard The First is better on dry tracks but he is racing well. Punch Your Weight is a wet-tracker, fitter for one run from a spell, can run a place at big odds.

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ROSEHILL GARDENS

Race 6, No. 2: Footy Fan each-way

Race 7, No. 8: Two Blue

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Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Mike Fraser