Saturday Best with Nic Ashman and Ron Dufficy

BEST BETS: SKY Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy and the Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman are convinced Countryman is ready to win at Rosehill on Saturday.

YPR Race Day at Royal Randwick. Winner of Race 8 'Imperial Hotel - Paddington Handicap', Eigelstein ridden by Nash Rawiller.

BOOKMAKERS are bracing for a betting onslaught on the Gai Waterhouse-trained Countryman at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Countryman has been heavily spruiked as one of the day’s better bets but still sits as the second favourite behind Centre Pivot in the Unbreakable Hilux NJC Day Handicap (1300m).

Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy and the Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman are convinced Countryman is ready to win and push hard for outright favouritism on track.

RACE 2: STRUCTAFLOR YELLOWTONGUE (1400m)

Dufficy: I was quite impressed with how well Wudang Mountain went first-up. He showed good progression from his first campaign and, even though it was a slowly run race, he picked himself up and got the job done. I’m slightly concerned he’s landed in another slowly run race but he’s your typical Waller horse that will improve. Land’s End ran a faster time than Kimberley Star when they both raced at Warwick Farm yet the latter is almost half the price.

Ashman: Good point, Duff. Maybe the market is factoring in Kimberley Star has had a run since and race fitness seems to be the key lately to finding winners in Sydney. Having said that, this will be the driest track we’ve seen for a while and $2.50 looks poison odds. I’ve got her on top but I won’t be betting unless she gets out to $3.50 or more. I concede Wudang Mountain is a big threat and Land’s End will be running on late.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIES: VALUE BETS

RACE 3: HOME DOORS & TIMBER HCP (1400m)

Ashman: Mardi turned in a rousing gallop at Randwick on Tuesday and I genuinely feel she hasn’t had a chance to win a race this preparation. Her low head carriage isn’t conducive to performing on wet tracks and back on to a soft surface will see her improve lengths. Horses just aren’t winning first-up at the moment, are they mate, and I think this is the first race she’s found where she’s had the right foundation to win.

Dufficy: I get your point. She’s a horse that’s got her fair share of ability on her day but I’ve got one in this and reckon she’ll run well. Commanding Wit has been disappointing in her two runs but, as we’ve mentioned, it’s very hard to win first-up in winter on these wet tracks and I’m tipping she’ll improve on a drier surface. It’s D-Day for her in my mind, I want to see her stand up and do something on Saturday. I’ll back her to get the job done.

Mardi, right, caught the eye at Randwick trackwork this week.

RACE 5: UNBREAKABLE HILUX NJC DAY HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen here on Countryman. Again, I reiterate how hard it is to win first-up on wet tracks but this bloke performed very well when second to what looks to be a smart type in Shiraz. Centre Pivot and Idance look the dangers but all four of Countryman’s wins have been second-up. What’s he been doing in trackwork?

Ashman: Ran 36.5 seconds for his last 600m on Tuesday and was one of the better gallops of the morning. I think he’s come back a stronger horse and is now able to sustain his speed for longer. The extra 100m should allow him to go through the first section a little slower, paving the way for him to travel in his comfort zone for longer. And having James McDonald on board a Gai Waterhouse-trained galloper also instils me with a lot of confidence. Looks a terrific bet. I am interested to see how Centre Pivot returns and Casual Choice is honet.

RACE 6: WINTER CHALLENGE (1500m)

Dufficy: So many horses are coming out of the Rugged Cross race and I’ve gone looking for one that hasn’t. After a good a look, I’ve settled on Eigelstein, who I think has been racing OK against better opposition than what he faces here. He’s better suited away from the heavy tracks and looks an improver. Noela’s Chioce’s last run was better than it reads on paper and she has claims in the feature race.

Ashman: I’m with you Duff, keen on Eigelstein. He’s the Waller runner down in the weights coming off decent runs and, as you mentioned, his record on soft tracks is exceptional and he certainly prefers soft to heavy, which is what he’s been racing on at his past two starts. Great Esteem is another one who should improve on firmer footing. He drops a lot in weight in this, although he does face harder opposition.

Chris Waller has three runners in the Winter Challenge, including Eigelstein. Picture: Mark Evans

RACE 7: SELLEYS HANDICAP (1100m)

Ashman: Inz’N’Out started the $3 favourite in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince against the likes of Scissor Kick and Delectation yet they’re betting more than double that here in a benchmark 75 race. I think people were expecting more from him first-up but, when you consider what we’ve been talking about in regards to horses struggling to win fresh over these winter months, a three-length defeat on the bog at Randwick when crowded for room in the straight probably reads quite well in the scheme of things. Fell Swoop is a short-priced favourite and is second-up from a spell but rates highly, while Dupe ‘Em is right down in the weights and could surprise.

Dufficy: There’ll be good speed from Senta De Noche out wide and this will be a truly run affair with a host of chances engaged. Fell Swoop could be a pretty good horse. He was a certainty beaten first-up and his previous form looks rock-solid with a verdict over Sure And Fast last campaign. I am wary of Onerus. He’s been gelded and the early betting suggests he’s in good order.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

THE TOP PICK

Race 5, No. 6 Countryman

THE BEST VALUE

Race 3, No. 2 Commanding Wit

OTHER BETS

Race 2, No. 3 Wudang Mountain

Race 6, No. 6 Eigelstein

Originally published as Saturday Best with Nic Ashman and Ron Dufficy