Melbourne Cup 2014: Admire Rakti is favourite — so why wouldn’t you back it?

IF you are sick of backing losers and sick of your horse running 23rd should you just back the favourite in the Cup? KEN CALLANDER has the answer.

News Limited journalist and racing commentator Ken Callander at Randwick Racecourse in Sydney, on his last day as a TV commen...

If you are sick of backing losers and sick of your horse running 23rd should you just back the favourite in the Cup?

At least that way you are not the laughing stock of the office when you back the horse named after your uncle or aunt and it runs like they would if they were running at Flemington.

So is it smart to go for broke and plunge the week’s wages on the favourite, Admire Rakti, while all of your friends do what you usually do and go broke backing hunches and tips from the guy in the coffee shop?

AUSTRALIA’S MOST HONEST MELBOURNE CUP FORM GUIDE

Improve your chances and back the favourite Admire Rakti in the Melbourne Cup.

“Clever” people will tell you backing favourites is for mugs. They won’t tell you if you had backed the favourite every year for the past 20 years you would be showing a 27.50 per cent profit.

Even you stock exchange gurus would admit that’s not bad for a once a year less than five minute investment.

Five favourites have won out of the last 20 and $1 on each of them at their starting price would have returned you $25.50.

Those winners were Fiorente at $7 in 2013, Makybe Diva at $4.50 in 2005, Makybe Diva at $3.50 in 2004, Jezabeel at $6 in 1998 and Might and Power at $4.50 in 1997.

SIGNOFF’S RISE TO SERIOUS CUP CONTENDER

The shortest price favourite of the past 40 years at $3 was the Bart Cummings champ So You Think in 2010. He ran a gallant race to finish third, but if you backed him that didn’t help, you did your money.

Possibly because of the variances of form in so many foreign horses running in the great race we don’t get as many short price favourites as we once did.

The last horse to start at less than $3 was Gay Icarus, who was a $2.75 favourite in 1971. He finished ninth.

When Phar Lap won the Cup way back in 1930 he started at 11/8 on or $1.72. Mind you if you backed him you were only getting square as in 1929 he started at even money, or $2, and ran third to Nightmarch.

Gigi Hadid with 2014 Melbourne Cup favourite Admire Rakti.

So what about backing longshots?

The longest price winner of the past 20 years was Viewed at $41 in 2009 while three horses have won at 100/1 or $101. They were The Pearl in 1871, Wotan in 1936 and Old Rowley in 1940.

I wasn’t alive for any of those and obviously neither were most of you.

So what’s my advice for the Cup? I am going to back the favourite, but as they say in the ad “gamble responsibly”.

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2014: Admire Rakti is favourite — so why wouldn’t you back it?