New variants make Victorian outbreak as serious as second wave

Victoria’s deadly second wave cost more than 800 lives. Experts say the crisis gripping the state right now is just as serious for a simple reason.

Victorian aged care residents are seen waving from behind glass in facilities locked down by the spread of coronavirus.

It is a harrowing reminder of what was the darkest chapter in Victoria’s second wave when 820 people died and the virus ripped through aged care homes.

The Victorian Government is doing everything in its power to avoid a repeat of those devastating scenes. They have imposed a seven-day lockdown. Contact tracers are working around the clock and tens of thousands of Victorians are being forced to isolate after visiting exposure sites.

Authorities have announced a five day vaccination “blitz”, prioritising workers in vulnerable settings at immunisation hubs across Victoria over the next five days.

But experts remain worried that none of that will be enough if new variants of the deadly virus take hold.

Dr Nick Talley, editor-in-chief of the Medical Journal of Australia, has expressed his concern on social media.

“I don’t want to alarm anyone but these covid variants represent a huge new threat,” he wrote.

“Because transmission so high in unvaccinated (R0 high). If takes hold previous restrictive approaches and contact tracing may not be enough anymore.”

RELATED: Victoria records three new cases

A resident gestures from an aged care facility in the Melbourne suburb of Maidstone on May 31, 2021. Picture: William West/AFP

Dr Talley wrote that Victoria was doing well but the outbreak which originated in South Australian hotel quarantine and had now grown to 54 was “very disturbing”.

“We are behind when we were ahead. Highly transmissible (R0>5) Indian variant potentially place just about everyone unvaccinated in Australia at risk. It has/can leak out. The way out, the only way out, of the covid pandemic is Covid-19 vaccination.”

He said he did not believe people in Australia “understand the new and very real risks we face”.

“We’ve been blessed with low community transmission. Restrictions have worked. But if a variants R0 is 5 or higher even lockdowns won’t be enough to stop (the) spread.”

It is a sentiment shared by Professor Brendan Crabb from the Burnett Institute who told Sunrise on Monday that we are in a “big moment in time … as big as we’ve faced (since) the beginning of the pandemic”.

A pedestrian walks along Southgate Bridge during lockdown. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

RELATED: New hybrid variant discovered in Vietnam

“There’s a huge global surge going on and it’s fuelled by new variants,” he said.

“These are evolved versions of the original virus. We need to worry an awful lot about these viruses that are spreading more easily and avoiding immunity.

“The Vietnam one is especially worrying on the face of it because it’s a virus that’s evolved in a different way.

“It’s a recombination of two viruses, we are told, the details are yet to be published for scrutiny but that’s a different, more worrying way to get a sudden emergence of something different rather than just an iterative emergence.”

We're at a critical juncture @CrabbBrendan believes, because of the global surge in the #COVID-19 pandemic and the emergence of new #variants. "It's a big moment in time for us, and the world - as big as we've faced since the beginning of the pandemic." @[e-mail]/gELmUBcqoP

— Burnet Institute (@BurnetInstitute) May 30, 2021

Victoria on Tuesday recorded nine new cases of coronavirus – but with six already reported yesterday, there’s hope the state could be getting its outbreak under control.

Health authorities yesterday said six positive cases had been detected after its midnight reporting period meaning Victoria technically only recorded three new cases today.

Victorian Health Minister Martin Foley said two of the cases were primary close contacts, who were already quarantining during their infectious period.

The final case is still under investigation.

There were another two cases detected in hotel quarantine.

The state’s new coronavirus cases were also found from more than 42,000 tests.

Despite the small number, the state’s mystery cases, surging infections and a rapidly growing list of exposure sites have heightened fears Victoria’s “circuit breaker” seven-day lockdown could be extended.

Acting Premier James Merlino and his team have a big decision to make. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

The government has continually refused to be drawn on whether the lockdown will end at 11.59pm on Thursday as planned, with Acting Premier James Merlino saying it wasn’t just the case numbers that would determine if restrictions are extended.

“It’s the type of cases. It’s where it’s occurring. It’s [whether] we know where they’re linked, if are they high-risk sites,” he said.

“All of those things are taken into account by the public health team in terms of when they’re confident to provide advice to government that we can then go towards some easings of restrictions.”

Mr Merlino said the outbreak “may well get worse before it gets better”.

– With Ally Foster