Coronavirus Victoria: Possibility ‘third step’ won’t happen when planned

Just a single word from Brett Sutton today has laid bare the very real possibility that Victoria will not be able to exit lockdown as early as planned.

It was always going to be a tall order, but there are now real doubts creeping in as to whether Victoria will get its case numbers down by enough to move to “step three” of its path out of lockdown when expected.

Just a single word from chief health officer Brett Sutton today highlighted that doubt. That’s the word “may”.

When asked if Victoria would reach its target of a rolling 14-day average of five daily cases or fewer of COVID-19 by the goal of October 19, he replied, “That’s a point that we’ll absolutely get to, and it may still well be mid-October.”

Of course, that means that Victoria “may” also not meet that goal by mid-October.

The numbers just aren’t coming down fast enough.

Yesterday, Prof Sutton said it was “lineball” whether the lockdown would be loosened on time. And he hinted that some kind of distance limit may need to remain in place for a time.

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The ‘third step’ could see shops reopening: David Crosling/NCA NewsWire

According to Victoria’s COVID road map, the so-called “third step” is the next milestone with the aim being to reach that on October 19.

This step is arguably the most substantial so far. It’s at this stage that the 5km local radius should be gone, as will any limits on how long Melburnians can remain outdoors.

Public gatherings will go from five to 10 and “household bubbles” can be created.

All shops will be able to reopen and even pubs and restaurants will be allowed to operate, although with strict distancing and capacity limits.

The third step is still a long way from the lack of restrictions which Australians in every other state and territory enjoy. But it’s the shining light on the hill for cooped up Victorians.

Yet today’s spike in numbers means that light might be getting just a bit dimmer and the hill further away.

Today, Victoria recorded 15 new cases of COVID-19. It’s the highest number for 10 days and comes after several days of new cases in just single digits.

Tuesday’s bump has taken the 14-day rolling state average to 10.9 cases; more than double the five target threshold. Victoria has less than two weeks to get to five.

Nonetheless, that number has fallen from an average of 12 cases per day over the weekend.

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Daily new cases in Victoria. Tuesday’s 15 new cases is the white box. The daily average has to fall below five (the red line) before the lockdowns can be loosened. Picture: Vic DHSS.

LOCKDOWNS MAY NEED TO BE IN PLACE LONGER
Infectious diseases expert at Australian National University, Peter Collignon, told news.com.au the tail end of a wave was always tricky to control.

“Once you get down to these very low numbers it starts to get more difficult, you keep finding cases. And Victoria has very high numbers of cases, lots of transmission around and it will take a long time before it all disappears.

“New South Wales took a long time to get the numbers down there due to the amount of undiagnosed and asymptomatic people”.

Prof Collignon said the milestone’s on Victoria’s roadmap demanded numbers so low that it appeared to be an elimination, rather than suppression strategy.

“That’s a very difficult target that may involve lockdowns for a long period of time.”

ANOTHER FIGURE VIC NEEDS TO MEET

Another step three essential is if Victoria gets to five or fewer cases with an unknown source of transmission. That mystery number of cases currently sits at 13.

Part of the issue is tracking where the sometimes huge numbers of cases have come from. On August 4, the day Victoria saw the most infections, 687 people were diagnosed with the disease. That’s an enormous number of people to work out where they’ve been and who they’ve seen.

“The challenge in this wave in Victoria is profoundly different to the first wave,” Prof Sutton said today.

“I don’t think anyone really understands what a gargantuan task the contact tracing has been through this wave.”

Prof Collignon said this was the number that most concerned him.

“For every mystery case you still have, there is at least one other person you haven’t found – and that’s the person they got it from in the first place.”

That means today’s figure of 13 mystery cases is likely closer to 30.

However, Prof Sutton is being bullish and said the mystery cases number can be wrangled down to five. If Victoria can go the next four days with no unknown source of transmission, that goal will be hit.

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Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton has said only that the state ‘may’ reach the five cases a day goal. Picture: David Geraghty/NCA NewsWire

‘LONG TAIL’ OF CRUSHING COVID

But authorities were “throwing everything” at desperately trying to get Victoria down to an average of five cases a day.

What is not helping is emerging clusters. The Chadstone Shopping Centre outbreak has now led to the first case in regional Victoria for some time.

“We can get on top of the outbreaks. Every outbreak had its complexities and we do get on top of them,” Prof Sutton said.

“These may well be the very last outbreaks that Victoria sees. I hope that is the case. And we can get on top of them.”

He also said numbers in aged care were going down and these had been a key “seeding” location for further outbreaks.

This “long tail” of tapering infections has been a feature in many countries. Despite all its success in contact tracing, treating and quarantining, South Korea is still seeing 50 to 100 new cases per day.

Victoria is already below that level but Prof Sutton isn’t happy.

“I don’t like to see a number that’s in double figures and not in single figures, and no-one obsesses over the daily numbers more than me or my team,” he said. “We all have to be prepared for whatever may come. And it’s not easy.”

He isn’t the only one obsessing over the numbers. Many Victorians have October 19 circled on the calendars as the day the lockdown has to end.