Qld election 2020: Why Townsville votes could be final decider

Both leaders campaigned hard in this one seat, where just a few hundred votes could decide who the next Queensland Premier is.

Over the course of the Queensland election campaign, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington spent a lot of time in North Queensland – in the one city that could be the “deciding factor” tonight.

Both Ms Palaszczuk and Ms Frecklington are fighting to win the ultra-marginal seat of Townsville – held by ALP with 0.4 per cent majority, with just 214 votes the deciding factor in the 2017 election.

The ALP are also out to retain the neighbouring seats of Thuringowa, held by 4.1 per cent, and Mundingburra, held by 1.1 per cent.

The three seats are widely considered to be vital electorates in deciding which party will form government, with Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams saying they “could decide the election”.

“The three Townsville seats are critical as they are so often marginal – two this time are very marginal – and because they’re sensitive to economic downturn,” Dr Williams told news.com.au.

“They’re also indicative of regional politics more generally: if a government is travelling poorly around Townsville, it’s unlikely to be doing well elsewhere in the regions.”

Dr Williams said the seats had been “volatile” since 1998, with “huge numbers of voters departing the major parties for One Nation, and more recently the Katter’s Australian Party and a few votes to the United Australia Party”.

“This makes preferences critical in these seats,” he explained. “Any party hoping to form government in Queensland should win over Townsville.”

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Just 214 votes could decide if Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is re-elected. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Dan Peled

Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington, speaking in Townsville earlier this month. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Sarah Marshall

The seat of Townsville could be the decider in the state election. Picture: Electoral Commission Queensland

The latest YouGov poll, published in the The Courier Mail on October 5, and The Australian’s Newspoll survey, put the ALP ahead 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis.

But if the LNP pinches all three marginal seats, the Labor Party is in real danger of losing any hopes of a majority government. Preferences for Clive Palmer’s UAP in both Townsville and the neighbouring seat of Thuringowa could help tip the balance to the LNP, having racked up $2.1 million in donations since early August.

One Opposition MP, however, has told the ABC a LNP majority government is “a big ask”, with Deputy Premier Steven Miles told reporters yesterday the “campaign is between us – a united majority Palaszczuk Labor government – and Deb Frecklington and all of the freaks and weirdos who she hopes to elect and govern in minority government”.

“Look who Deb Frecklington is preferencing ahead of Labor – the Greens, One Nation, Clive Palmer – the only line she drew was on anti-vaxxers,” Mr Miles said.

The Labor preference strategy appeared to provide a simple and consistent message but a number of party members have muddied the waters after being spotted actively advocating for voters to preference the Liberal-National Party last.

This allowed senior LNP Senator Matt Canavan to step in and question Mr Miles’, saying the deputy premier had “as much punch as a pensioner”.

“It’s pretty disappointing that he’s so inconsistent,” Mr Canavan told Today. “He seems so unsure of himself and then you have his own candidates out there contradicting him.

“On the same day he was saying that, Labor candidates are running around saying ‘Put the LNP last’. The Labor Party has lost all credibility on this issue. Their rhetoric is completely empty because they’ve been caught red handed saying one thing but doing the complete opposite.”

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WHAT EACH PARTY HAS PROMISED SO FAR

Crime and tourism are the major issues concerning Townsville – neither of which had been a huge focus in any announcements made by the two leaders during their campaigns until a few weeks ago.

Ms Frecklington announced the LNP will trial a curfew in both Townsville and Cairns to control youth crime.

“We need to make sure this community is kept safe,” she told reporters.

“Under Labor, there is no plan to be tough on crime … business as usual won’t cut it. If you are on the streets doing the wrong thing, you’ll be taken off the streets.”

Under the plan, children aged 14 and under will be picked up by police if they are out past 8pm, and those between the ages of 15 and 17 who aren’t off the streets by 10pm. Parents will be fined $250 if their children are unable to provide a reasonable excuse as to why they’re out after these hours.

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The Premier said Ms Frecklington’s explanation of how the curfew would be implemented into practice “doesn’t cut the mustard”, though refused to comment on whether she believes it is a humane approach to fighting crime.

Instead, Ms Palaszczuk told reporters today that the main problem in the region in unemployment.

“The number one issue here is jobs,” she said, leaning on the ALP’s plan to boost the number of law enforcement officers to combat crime in North Queensland.

“We have made the biggest investment in police up here that has ever been in Queensland.”

With NCA NewsWire