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Independent Kerryn Phelps claims victory over Liberal candidate Dave Sharma for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth

A COUNTING error has been found during a checking of the votes in the Wentworth by-election as Dr Phelps widens her lead.

Sam Clench, Charis Chang, Phoebe Loomes and Nick Whigham
32 min read
October 23, 2018 - 9:28AM
Kerryn Phelps claims victory over Liberal Dave Sharma

Live Wentworth by-election blog

Welcome to our live Wentworth by-election blog.

IT WAS a horror night on Saturday for the Liberal Party with the Wentworth by-election called in favour of independent Kerryn Phelps less than 90 minutes after the polls closed.

But the result was thrown into doubt yesterday, with postal votes shaving the margin between Dr Phelps and Dave Sharma to fewer than 1000 ballots.

However, experts still believe the independent candidate will secure the victory, saving her from an awkward concession speech following jubiliant celebrations on Saturday night.

Sunday 7:30pm

According to the ABC’s election specialist Antony Green, the revised vote count this afternoon, which saw a slight boost in the numbers for Dr Phelps, resulted from preferences being tallied in the wrong column.

It is the sort of error check counting is designed to find, he said.

Dr Phelps has secured 51.10 per cent of the vote in two-party terms. Despite Mr Sharma getting a boost from postal votes, many experts predict the independent candidate will still win.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday rejected calls for an early election despite the likelihood of his coalition government losing its majority.

“We have been at 75 (seats), not 76, since the former prime minister resigned,” Morrison told reporters. “In that time we had been able to legislate, run the Parliament and we haven’t lost a single vote.”

Earlier, Labor’s Manager of Opposition Business Tony Burke said Mr Morrison should call an election before the next one is due in May, saying the Coalition had said strongly in the Wentworth campaign that an independent victory would bring more uncertainty to Australia.

7pm

The Australian Electoral Commission has updated the number of postal votes that have been counted. The result has seen Dr Kerryn Phelps’ lead slightly reduced to 1626.

5:45pm

After the gap got nervously close for Kerryn Phelps, the independent candidate has increased her lead in the vote count.

Dr Phelps now leads by 1862 votes after getting a bump in her numbers after a counting error was picked up.

A check in the vote count in Bellevue Hill, Bondi and Vaucluse saw Dr Phelps boost her lead. There are still more than 4000 postal votes expected to be counted in the coming days but it appears the independent candidate should hold on.

3:30pm

Kerryn Phelps has given her first public indication that she believes the result is now in doubt.

3:05pm

The checking of results at the Bellevue polling station has led to a crucial shift in the voting tally.

Dr Phelps has gained 126 votes, and Mr Sharma has lost 155, pushing her total lead back above a thousand to 1165.

2:50pm

Emboldened by Dr Phelps’ strong showing in Wentworth, media commentator Jane Caro is seriously considering running against former prime minister Tony Abbott as an independent in Warringah.

“It’s been nagging at me for a while,” Ms Caro told The Guardian.

“I’ve got grandchildren. I worry about climate change and our lack of action.”

Ms Caro acknowledged she would need to renounce her British citizenship first. She has lived in Australia since she was six.

“Grew up there. Went to school there. Sent kids to school there. Live in neighbouring electorate,” she said of Warringah.

“I may not win. Not the point. I feel duty bound to do what I can to stop the climate deniers and the far right destroy my granchildren’s future. If I could help I ought to at least try.”

Mr Abbott holds Warringah with a comfortable margin, having racked up 61.6 per cent of the two-party vote against the Greens at the last election. He did suffer a swing against of him of almost four per cent in 2016.

2:00pm

Just to complicate things even further, there are suspicions Dr Phelps received too few preferences from two polling places.

An analysis by The Tally Room found Bondi Beach and Bellevue both returned unusually low preference flows for the independent candidate when their results were compared to other booths.

That may simply be because people voted differently in those areas - or it could be a counting error.

If it’s the latter, the mistake will be rectified, as the Electoral Commission re-scrutinises the results in question.

It could shift hundreds of votes from Mr Sharma’s column to Dr Phelps’.

1:20pm

So, here’s a summary of where we’re at in the vote count.

• The result hinges on postal votes;

• There were 12,788 envelopes issued to voters before the election, and so far 6890 have been returned;

• The Liberals have won 64 per cent of the 5463 postal votes that have been counted;

• There are 1266 that we know still need to be counted. That will start happening from 3pm;

• The maths nerds among you will note that 5463+1266 does not equal 6890. That gap is due to envelopes that were returned without ballot papers;

• In total, Dr Phelps currently leads Mr Sharma by 884 votes;

• On top of all that, more postal votes could still come in - the cut-off isn’t until the second of November.

If the Liberals continue to claim about two-thirds of the postal votes, there will not be enough in the remaining 1266 we currently know about for Mr Sharma to catch up.

But thousands more could arrive in the coming weeks, potentially propelling him to a comeback victory.

12:45pm

The Australian Electoral Commission has announced a new postal vote count will happen this afternoon. More votes have yet to arrive — so if the margin stays close, we might have to wait days to confirm the result beyond any doubt.

12:30pm

Peta Credlin has warned people not to assume the result in Wentworth will be reflected across the country at the next federal election.

“It’s dangerous to see Wentworth as a generalised or uniform Coalition seat. It’s quite an extraordinary seat,” she told Sky News.

“It had a high personal following there for Malcolm Turnbull. In fact when Kevin Rudd was elected in 2007, everybody else went backwards — remember, the then-prime minister John Howard lost his seat — while Malcolm Turnbull had an uptick in his vote.

She said the issues that had helped Dr Phelps win, such as the ABC, climate change and the treatment of refugees on Nauru, would not necessarily resonate elsewhere.

“I think in the seats that change government, those true marginals, Scott Morrison would run better than Malcolm Turnbull. But this is a big hit for them. It’s absolutely a big hit.”

Ms Credlin said Mr Morrison’s job would now be infinitely harder and his government would struggle to seem legitimate.

“Every MP on the government’s side now, and on the crossbench, becomes a kingmaker. Everyone has the right now to walk into the Prime Minister’s office and demand this and demand this for their seat as a blood price,” she said.

“The government is almost seen as in exile, and the opposition gets a lot more currency out there in the community.

“The government has got to be careful from hereon in that they are not seen as illegitimate.”

She brought up the example of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s eligibility to sit in parliament. Previous attempts to refer Mr Dutton to the High Court were defeated by just one vote. Now the government will struggle to protect him.

Peta Credlin on Sky News.
Peta Credlin on Sky News.

11:30am

At that press conference just now, Scott Morrison acknowledged voters’ anger.

“Yesterday Liberal voters expressed their anger at the parliamentary Liberal Party. There is no doubt about that. And we copped that fairly on the chin,” Mr Morrison said.

“The event of two months ago angered and outraged many Liberals and particularly those in the seat of Wentworth. That’s on us, the parliamentary Liberal Party. That’s not on Dave Sharma.”

However he also warned Bill Shorten not to get carried away with the result.

“I know the Labor Party will be all cocky about this. Bill Shorten is always cocky. He hasn’t got a lot to be cocky about from yesterday. The Labor Party vote fell by one third,” he said.

“Bill Shorten may be cocky and he may think he is already there, but I assure him that from my point of view he is in for the fight of his life.”

10:45am

We’re still keeping a close eye on that vote tally, which keeps tightening.

The latest update has Mr Sharma trailing Dr Phelps by just 884 votes — a fair way off changing the result, but close enough to catch the attention of the Prime Minister.

“Things are tighter today than they were last night. It is down to less than 900 votes now, in what I always said, and Joshua (Frydenberg) said, would be a very tight by-election,” Mr Morrison told reporters.

“It is proving to be tighter by the minute, literally. In the 10-15 minutes before coming to speak to you, the gap closed by several hundred votes again. There are still many postal votes to be counted. We will simply wait for this normal, democratic, robust, credible process to follow its course before we are in a position to know who the successful candidate will be.”

The Twitterati are starting to get antsy.

Meanwhile, ABC guru Antony Green has popped up again to say the result “could still be turned around”.

“It’s much narrower than we were expecting last night,” he said, stressing Dr Phelps was still the favourite.

10:30am

We brought you one interpretation of the Wentworth result — that it was Malcolm Turnbull’s fault for staying silent throughout the campaign.

Here is the opposing opinion.

“He didn’t campaign because they said, ‘Yes, we dumped you as leader because we thought you were a bad campaigner — but you should have campaigned in Wentworth.’

“As far as the hard right of the Liberal Party are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull could walk on water across Sydney Harbour and they would have accused him of not paying the toll,” Peter van Onselen told Insiders.

“You had a prime minister who was slightly behind in the polls but well ahead of his Labor counterpart, and he got tossed out by his party. He then did what he said he was always going to do, which was leave the parliament,” said the Courier-Mail’s Denis Atkins.

“Imagine if he had ridden in on the white horse and had dared to say something about the week of madness. In fact, my understanding is they tried to get him to write a letter, but they wouldn’t let him. He said, ‘I would have to address the issue that brought us to this,’ and it was not negotiable, so it didn’t happen,” added ABC radio host Fran Kelly.

The trio pointed out that Dr Phelps was a “particularly strong independent” in Wentworth, given she was a strong and well-known local, and any intervention from Mr Turnbull was unlikely to overturn such a massive swing against the government.

10:20am

As expected, the conservative side of politics is splitting between those who blame Malcolm Turnbull for the government’s defeat and those who blame the plotters who overthrew him.

“Malcolm Turnbull has been toxic for the Liberal Party,” Sky News host Rowan Dean, who sits firmly in the former camp, said.

“Wiped out Abbott’s majority. He had a 14-seat majority. Then created the circumstances for the by-election, which was unnecessary.

“Talk about bad sportsmanship. Australians love good sports. When you lose, you take it on the chin.

“This bloke is the underarm bowler of the political world. He loses the leadership, so rather than playing for the team, he picks up his bat and ball and rushes home and has a little sob down in New York with his wife, and then tries to spoil.

“That’s disgraceful. You know, had this bloke just stayed until May next year he would have done a favour for the team. Let’s not forget, the Liberal Party gave him the greatest honour in this country, which is to be the prime minister. And he’s spat all over them.”

10:00am

Sooooo .... votes are still being counted in Wentworth and all of a sudden, the result is looking a lot closer.

Boosted by a surge of postal votes, Dave Sharma is quickly narrowing the gap to Kerryn Phelps.

According to the Australian Electoral Commission’s tally, the margin had shrunk to just over a thousand votes at 10am, and Dr Phelp’s share of the two-party vote was down to 50.75 per cent.

“I don’t think he’ll quite get there, but boy, this could get super close,” Peter van Onselen told Insiders.

“This might not be over. I don’t think he’ll quite get there, but we’ll see.”

Well well well, this is starting to look interesting.
Well well well, this is starting to look interesting.

9:20am

Kerryn Phelps has been doing the rounds on morning TV, soaking up the aftermath of her victory. She told the ABC’s Insiders program a “sequence of events” had sealed the government’s fate in Wentworth.

“There was a sequence of events that happened that people just became utterly exasperated with the Liberal Party,” Dr Phelps said.

“They seemed to be only interested in their own self-interest. They only seem to want to talk about their leadership challenges and their factional battles and it’s like, ‘Hang on a second, we’re out here, we are the Australian people, we want you to focus on our issues.”

She said the government’s refusal to release its report into religious freedom, and the subsequent suggestion that gay children could be thrown out of their schools, was the first great blow to Mr Sharma’s campaign.

The other killer issue was the government’s apparently accidental support for Pauline Hanson’s ‘It’s OK to be white’ motion in the Senate. Ms Phelps mocked its explanation for the screw-up.

“The next excuse was, ‘Oops, we didn’t mean to, we didn’t actually read the motion.’ That’s shambolic government, that is poor governance and people were saying, ‘How can you possibly explain that? How can you call yourself a responsible government and do that sort of thing?’”

In the lead-up to the by-election, Mr Sharma and Scott Morrison argued Dr Phelps would destabilise the parliament and might even bring down the government.

She told Insiders she believed “all governments should go full term unless there are exceptional circumstances,” and she would not vote rashly for a motion of no confidence.

“We saw that kind of recklessness last week with people voting on motions that they hadn’t read and didn’t understand, and that’s not how I operate. I need to have evidence. I need to see a full brief. I need to know what I’m voting on,” Dr Phelps said.

She admitted she had been “torn” about running for the seat and always thought her candidacy was a “longshot”.

“It was the furthest thing from my mind until Malcolm Turbull was dumped, and then everywhere I went in the streets in the eastern suburbs, somebody would come up to me and say, ‘Would you please have a run in Wentworth?’” she said.

“Jackie and I had to sit down and as a family we had to talk about what that would mean, what the implications would be to our lives, and the fact that I would have to be spending so much time in Canberra.

“I wasn’t prepared to actually make the decision and announce I would do it until we knew we could do it properly.”

She certainly did do it properly.

Kerryn Phelps on Insiders this morning.
Kerryn Phelps on Insiders this morning.

8:50am

Just how bad is it for the Liberals?

Here’s the dire assessment of The Australian’s editor-at-large Paul Kelly, a man who is not prone to hyperbole.

“The Liberal Party and the government is facing the prospect of a really significant election defeat, possibly the worst election defeat in the history of the Liberals,” Mr Kelly told Sky News.

“Well that’s a real worry for them,” said host David Speers, a master of understatement.

8:15am

The sassy informal vote might not be counted in the final tally, but it is nevertheless a great Australian tradition.

This one from yesterday’s by-election sums up the sentiment in Wentworth pretty well.

“Bring back Malcolm Turnbull you muppets,” the voter wrote

They also filled in the boxes to read, “I liked M. Turnbull,” just to make sure we got the point.

Mr Turnbull’s knifing was, of course, a key factor in the anger Wentworth’s voters felt towards the government. He was a popular local member, holding the seat by a whopping 17.7 per cent before resigning from parliament.

This cheeky informal vote says it all.
This cheeky informal vote says it all.

Sunday 7.30am

Morning update: The biggest by-election swing in Australia’s political history
The biggest by-election swing against a government in Australia’s political history has left the nation with its second minority government in just over eight years.

Independent Kerryn Phelps achieved an unprecedented swing of more than 20 per cent against Liberal candidate Dave Sharma in Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth on Saturday.

As counting continued, Dr Phelps was on 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote thanks to preferences from Labor and minor parties.

When Dr Phelps takes up her seat, there will be a crossbench of six members in the House of Representatives with Labor holding 69 seats and the Coalition one short of a majority with 75.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison described it as a “tough day” and pledged to “listen, learn and accept the blows”.

However he appeared unfazed about having to negotiate a minority parliament, as Julia Gillard was forced to after the 2010 election.

“We will work constructively with all of those who sit on the cross bench as we always have,” he said.

Disgruntled Liberal MPs pointed the finger at failed leadership contender Peter Dutton’s boosters for the by-election loss.

“The blame for this lies squarely at the feet of anybody who felt it was a good idea to get rid of Malcolm Turnbull,” an angry Liberal backbencher Craig Laundy said.

— Paul Osborne, AAP

10.15pm

Update on the vote

Here’s one last update on the results with 50.50 per cent of the vote counted and 36 of 41 polling places returned.

Independent Kerryn Phelps is ahead on the two-candidate preferred vote by 54.39 per cent compared to Liberal candidate Dave Sharma on 45.61 per cent.

Dr Phelps has 17,500 primary votes compared to Mr Sharma’s 20,712 votes.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said about 80 per cent of preferences from other candidates were going to Dr Phelps and so she should win easily. He called the by-election in her favour about 7.15pm, not long after polling booths closed at 6pm.

It’s the first time in its 117-year history that the Liberals have lost the Wentworth seat and commentators are already predicting it will spell chaos within the party, and Malcolm Turnbull will be blamed.

There was a 27 per cent swing away from the Liberal Party, the biggest swing against a government in a by-election in the history of federal parliament.

It means the Morrison Government will lose its one-seat majority and Australia now has a hung parliament. The Liberal Party will have to work with crossbenchers to get its legislation passed.

10.03pm

Tony Abbott’s sister plays down future tilt at Wentworth

Christine Forster has downplayed comments she made to Sky News that she is considering Liberal preselection in Wentworth, saying “for now, let’s just get votes counted and congratulate @DaveSharma and @drkerrynphelps”.

9.35pm

Loss will be blamed on Malcolm Turnbull

The disastrous by-election result for the Liberal Party is already being blamed on the former prime minister and Wentworth MP.

Mr Turnbull was noticeably absent from the campaign and his son was openly encouraging people to vote for Kerryn Phelps.

Australian associate editor Chris Kenny said he thought the repercussions of the loss would be extraordinary.

“There’s going to be incredible turmoil within the Liberal Party as the blame game plays out,” he told Sky News.

“I think Malcolm Turnbull’s reputation is going to be absolutely trashed.

“We’ve had leaders of course take down other leaders in the past but we’ve never seen a leader take down his own party’s majority.”

Kenny said conservatives would blame Mr Turnbull for the loss while moderates in the party would say the problem started with the former PM being dumped.

“It’s going to be chaotic,” Kenny said.

9.20pm

Scott Morrison’s speech slammed

While the Prime Minister’s speech to Liberal supporters at Dave Sharma’s election party was heartily cheered, it has not gone down well on social media.

Many said it showed a lack of humility and that Mr Morrison had not understood the message from voters.

In contrast, Mr Sharma’s speech was praised for being gracious and respectful.

9pm

Talk about a rock star reception

Kerryn Phelps was greeted by a roar of jubilation as she arrived at her victory party at North Bondi Surf Life Savers club, and the noise didn’t die down for five minutes.

Dr Phelps took her time moving to the front of the room, stopping to hug and high five supporters. At several points she even broke out dancing, and an impromptu moshpit promptly formed around her.

The booming lyrics of the Macklemore song Glorious — “I feel glorious, glorious,” — perfectly summed up the mood.

There were howls of laughter as she started her speech with a verbal slip, thanking “the people of Warringah — Wentworth!”

Warringah, of course, is Tony Abbott’s seat.

Cheers and the occasional spontaneous outbreak of the chant “Kerryn, Kerryn!” greeted virtually every sentence she spoke.

“I am humbled by this privilege and I just want to say thank you, thank you, thank you,” she said, before descending back into the crowd.

The mood shifted shortly afterwards as a group of Dr Phelps’ supporters watched Prime Minister Scott Morrison take the stage at the Liberal Party’s function.

Mr Morrison’s defiant speech drew frequent heckles from the rowdier attendees.

“There will be tough days and there will be good days,” Mr Morrison said.

“It’ll be a great day when we kick you out!” one supporter shouted back at the TV.

Beaten Liberal candidate Dave Sharma got a more respectful reception, perhaps because his speech was notably magnanimous — not only towards Dr Phelps, but towards the old member of Wentworth, Malcolm Turnbull.

— Political reporter Sam Clench

Kerryn Phelps (centre) is congratulated by supporters. Picture: Chris Pavlich/AAP
Kerryn Phelps (centre) is congratulated by supporters. Picture: Chris Pavlich/AAP
Supporters were in a jubilant mood at North Bondi Surf Lifesaving Club. Picture: Cole Bennetts/Getty Images
Supporters were in a jubilant mood at North Bondi Surf Lifesaving Club. Picture: Cole Bennetts/Getty Images
Huge victory for Kerryn Phelps. Picture: Cole Bennetts/Getty Images
Huge victory for Kerryn Phelps. Picture: Cole Bennetts/Getty Images

8.40pm

Dave Sharma reflects on “bruising campaign”

The Liberal candidate acknowledged that tonight’s result came “a little sooner than I expected”, joking “I’m certainly glad I kept my day job”.

Mr Sharma noted that it had been the first time he had run for elected office.

“It has been a little bruising, no doubt about it, and it certainly has had some surprises, too. It has also been, though, a very humbling and enlightening experience,” he said.

“I’m sorry I wasn’t able to earn the trust of the voters of Wentworth tonight, but I have deeply enjoyed getting a window into their lives and a window into their concerns and a window into the priorities of literally thousands of Australians.”

He praised his rival Dr Phelps as “formidable” and said he would do whatever he could to support her in her role.

Mr Sharma also thanked previous Liberal member Malcolm Turnbull, saying he had been a fine Australian and made a fine contribution as Prime Minister.

“I’m sorry Malcolm couldn’t be here tonight, but he has been in touch with me to pass on his best wishes and I do appreciate all the support he has been able to provide during this campaign,” he said.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison addresses the Liberal Party Wentworth by-election function ahead of candidate Dave Sharma's (right) concession speech. Picture: Dan Himbrechts/AAP
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison addresses the Liberal Party Wentworth by-election function ahead of candidate Dave Sharma's (right) concession speech. Picture: Dan Himbrechts/AAP

8.25pm

PM invokes Invictus Games in Liberal Party praise

Mr Morrison took time out from his Invictus Games responsibilities to make a stop at Dave Sharma’s election party in Double Bay.

He said the result in Wentworth was not unexpected and said “Liberals are angry and they’ve expressed that”.

But Mr Morrison said he wanted to make something really clear: “The result today is on us, the Liberals, not on Dave Sharma”.

“When I decided to step up when the party called on me to lead this great party, I knew there would be tough days and there would be great days. Today is a tough day, but the great days are coming,” he said.

He added: “When you attract the quality, the crystal quality of a man like Dave Sharma, you know your party is heading in the right direction.”

Mr Morrison also said he didn’t want to make a political point about the Invictus Games but then said he thought the games was “all about the indomitable spirit”.

“We pay tribute to all of those who are there this evening and will contest over the next week, but we’ve got an indomitable spirit in this party.”

8.12pm

Kerryn Phelps claims victory: ‘We have made history today’

The independent danced her way through supporters and took to the stage amid chants of “Kerryn! Kerryn!”.

Dr Phelps accidentally thanked the people of Warringah first before correcting herself and saying “Wentworth” instead. She also thanked her amazing team of “purple people”.

“Just a few short weeks ago I was told this was an impossible task and if we actually managed to win the seat of Wentworth, that it would be a miracle,” she said.

“It was said if we won the seat of Wentworth, it would make history and my friends, we have made history today.

Dr Phelps said her win was a great moment for Australian democracy and should signal the return of “decency, integrity and humanity” to the Australian Government.

“And let’s hope for a bit of commonsense on climate change,” she said.

8.01pm

Labor concedes

Tim Murray has told his supporters: “The results show I will not be the next member of Wentworth”.

But he said it was the largest swing recorded at a by-election in the history of the federal parliament.

“This is the beginning of the end of the Morrison Government,” he said.

7.54pm

Exit poll shows climate change a key issue

The interim results of an exit poll commissioned by the Australia Institute and undertaken by Lonergan Research, shows concern about the government’s support for coal and inaction on climate change influenced many people’s vote.

According to the poll of 1049 voters in Wentworth, 78 per cent said climate change and replacing coal with renewables had some influence on their vote. 33 per cent named it as the most important issue.

Among former Liberal voters who switched to Phelps, Malcolm Turnbull’s toppling was the top concern (44 per cent), followed by climate change (28 per cent) but about 81 per cent of these voters said climate change had some influence on how they voted.

“Prime Minister Scott Morrison once brought a lump of coal into Parliament, but his government’s climate-wrecking, anti-science stance has gone down like a lead balloon with the voters of Wentworth,” Australia Institute deputy director Ebony Bennett said.

7.43pm

Phelps supporters in shock

Kerryn Phelps’ supporters are no less stunned by the result in Wentworth tonight than the rest of Australia.

Cheers are erupting frequently at Dr Phelps’ victory party at the North Bondi Surf Life Saving Club, where an air of jubilant disbelief reigns.

It isn’t the result per se that has surprised them, but the whopping margin, which led the race to be called early in the night.

“Wow. Wow,” was the simple reaction of a voice in the room as ABC analyst Antony Green called the by-election for Dr Phelps. I think that sums it up pretty well.

The atmosphere reminds me of how I felt as a Roosters fan when they somehow dominated the Melbourne Storm in the NRL grand final this year, which is appropriate, because the Roosters are the local team here.

Little analogy for the sports fans there. If you didn’t understand a word of it, don’t worry. The point is they’re really damn happy.

— Political reporter Sam Clench

There’s a party atmosphere at North Bondi Surf Lifesaving Club after the ABC called the Wentworth by-election for Kerryn Phelps.
There’s a party atmosphere at North Bondi Surf Lifesaving Club after the ABC called the Wentworth by-election for Kerryn Phelps.

7.38pm

Malcolm Turnbull’s son tweets his ‘hearty congratulations’ to Phelps

7.27pm

‘A monumental wipe-out’

Australia will have a hung parliament once the victory of Kerryn Phelps is confirmed and it will be the first time the Liberal Party has lost the seat since federation.

Labor MP Linda Burney told the ABC that it was an unprecedented result for the Liberal Party and Prime Minister Scott Morrison needs to think about calling a general election.

“This is such a monumental wipe-out in one of the safest Liberal seats in the country,” she said.

“You would have to be thinking, surely within the Liberal Party, what does this mean across the country?”

7.20pm

Liberal Party won’t concede yet

While election analyst Antony Green has declared Kerryn Phelps the winner, North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman said the Liberal Party would wait for some more results before conceding.

But as Mr Green said: “This has been a very bad result for the Liberal Party”.

7.15pm

Antony Green calls it for Kerryn Phelps

The ABC election analyst has declared the independent will win the Wentworth by-election.

7.10pm

Kerryn Phelps is ahead of Liberal candidate

With five of the 41 polling places returned, the AEC shows Kerryn Phelps has 1248 votes and is ahead of Liberal candidate Dave Sharma on 1120 votes.

7pm

‘Terrible’ result for Liberals

After seeing the results for four polling booths ABC election analyst Antony Green says he’s already close to calling the election for Kerryn Phelps if the swing against the Liberals continues to hold.

6.50pm

Early results show strong vote for Kerryn Phelps

Initial counting in the Wentworth by-election shows a 27 per cent swing against the Liberals, pointing to a likely win for independent Kerryn Phelps.

With 0.3 per cent of the vote counted, Australian Electoral Commission figures showed a 27.3 per cent swing against Liberal candidate Dave Sharma. Former member Malcolm Turnbull held the seat with a 17.75 per cent margin.

6.30pm

Result could hinge on preferences

If the polls are right and the primary vote is close, the outcome of the by-election could come down to preferences. Certainly Labor’s low profile campaign supports the theory it’s aiming to get its candidate Tim Murray to come in third rather than second.

If Mr Murray is placed third, this would give independent Dr Kerryn Phelps a chance to secure the seat on preferences against the Liberal Party.

Despite Mr Murray’s comments that he was planning to win the seat, it’s interesting that Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has been conspicuously absent from campaigning and did not make an appearance in the electorate today.

Labor candidate Tim Murray speaks to the media at Bronte Public School today. Picture: Cole Bennetts/Getty Images
Labor candidate Tim Murray speaks to the media at Bronte Public School today. Picture: Cole Bennetts/Getty Images

6.20pm

Is it a sign?

There was a biblical ending to the close of polls tonight with the electorate being drenched by a huge storm.

6pm

Polls have closed

Well it’s in the hands of the voters now as counting begins.

The Australian Electoral Commission says 103,000 people were enrolled to vote in Wentworth and just over 18,700 votes were cast early. About 12,500 postal votes were also received.

4.30pm

The people of Wentworth are going to be just fine

Our political reporter Sam Clench has been out on the hustings and filed this report.

There is one thing I have learned for sure about the people of Wentworth in my travels around the seat today — they are going to be just fine, whoever wins tonight.

Wherever I go, whether it’s the trendy markets of Paddington or the idyllic coastline of Bondi, the overwhelming vibe is one of people thoroughly enjoying their lives without being all that worried about politics.

A clear majority of the voters I saw were not bothering to take how to vote cards from the volunteers outside polling stations.

Many of them had already made up their minds and needed no instruction. Others seemed to be treating the occasion like a particularly nasty chore — and I’m not talking about washing the dishes here. More like clearing a blocked toilet.

Grim-looking posters, warning about all sorts of dire consequences should voters choose the wrong candidate, framed the footpaths outside polling places.

They were particularly jarring at Bondi Beach, where their dark messages contrasted with the sun-soaked sand and blue sky.

It’s hard to convince voters disaster is just around the corner with such a gorgeous backdrop.

Anti-Liberal signs reminded voters of the treatment of their former member and prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and implied Dave Sharma was under the control of the coal lobby.

The Liberals themselves had brought along posters suggesting a victory for Dr Phelps would only help the Labor Party, and destabilise parliament.

There was also the occasional, lonely sign alerting voters to the existence of a Labor candidate, named Tim Murray. This was undoubtedly a shock to many of them.

I was left with the unmistakeable impression that these last-ditch efforts to sway people were not going to change anyone’s mind.

4.05pm

Labor candidate here to win

Tim Murray predicts voters will savage the coalition on Saturday.

“The queues are huge which usually means they’ve got their cricket bats out for the incumbent, so I’m expecting to see quite a large swing here today,” he told ABC TV at Bondi Beach.

Mr Murray said while the media had focused on Dr Phelps and Mr Sharma “I’m planning to win”.

“This is the one time your vote is really going to count in this electorate,” he told AAP.

Mr Murray’s upbeat attitude comes despite many commentators considering the Labor candidate a “third option”. More on this below.

— Reporting by Angus Livingston and Julian Drape for AAP

3.40pm

Where’s Bill?

While this could be a historic day for federal politics, the Leader of the Opposition is so far nowhere to be seen.

For Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has been heavily involved in the Liberals campaign, it’s been a different story. He has been in and around Sydney all week, fitting in interviews around his appointments with Harry and Meghan Markle.

The loss of the seat of Wentworth in the House would have drastic effects for the government — it would signal an end to the Liberal’s majority in the House of Representatives.

Many have labelled this a two-horse race between the independent Dr Kerryn Phelps and the Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.

3.30pm

Historic defeat tipped for Liberals

Dave Sharma takes a moment. Photo: Tim Pascoe
Dave Sharma takes a moment. Photo: Tim Pascoe

Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps was campaigning early in Bellevue Hill when she told AAP the result would be close. She claims the outcome may not even be known on Saturday night.

“I don’t think anyone can be confident — we don’t really know how this is going to turn out,” the local GP said.

“I’m trying to turn around a massive majority and I’m doing that by focusing on the issues that are important to the future of Australia.”

— Reporting by Angus Livingston and Julian Drape for AAP.

3.20pm

“We’re competitive”: Dave Sharma

Liberal candidate Dave Sharma has been accosted by protesters and confronted with leaked internal polling suggesting the party’s heading for a historic by-election defeat in Wentworth, but he still insists “we’re competitive”.

Dave Sharma has insisted the Liberals remain competitive in the race for Wentworth. Photo: Tim Pascoe
Dave Sharma has insisted the Liberals remain competitive in the race for Wentworth. Photo: Tim Pascoe

The key candidates are predicting a close race but new Liberal Party polling indicates the federal government will likely lose its one-seat majority on Saturday with independent Kerryn Phelps tipped to win.

3.15pm

Biggest gamble of my life: Dr Kerryn Phelps

Dr. Kerryn Phelps was most recently reported as being in Vaucluse. When talking to a supporter, she said taking part in the race was, “the biggest gamble” of her life and said she was taking “no bets”.

Liberal candidate Dave Sharma with opponent Kerryn Phelps. Photo: Hollie Adams
Liberal candidate Dave Sharma with opponent Kerryn Phelps. Photo: Hollie Adams

The independent candidate has been jetting around different polling places in the Wentworth division in the Eastern suburbs of Sydney, greeting voters and handing out how to vote cards on the final day of the campaign.

2.30pm

Liberal candidate feeling positive

Dave Sharma said he’s been pleased with the response his team has been getting.

The Liberal candidate for Wentworth had a tough day today, being harassed by environmental protesters this morning, who disrupted an interview.

When asked if he identified with members of his electorate who may be more progressive, he responded that there was a number of key issues he considered important to local voters, including national security and “money in the pocket”.

“I’m not going to identify with a particular wing of the party.”

2.10pm

Opponents shake hands

Dr. Kerryn Phelps and Dave Sharma have shaken hands as they met at a polling place in Bondi Beach. The two smiled and shook hands, and the Liberal candidate reportedly wished the independent luck with the remainder of her campaign.

1.20pm

Wentworth “democracy sausages” and cake report

It’s time to take a breath to honour the wonderful Australian tradition of eating sausages and cakes while we vote. Controversially, however, we have heard that some sausages are being sold for the somewhat undemocratic price of $5.

George Sabados and Anna Darby serving up democracy sausages in Bondi. Photo: Bob Barker
George Sabados and Anna Darby serving up democracy sausages in Bondi. Photo: Bob Barker

1.15pm

The ghost of Malcolm

While Mr Turnbull was nowhere to be seen, his image was thoroughly used today in campaigning.

1.10pm

“Momentous”: Magda Szubanski vents about Libs

Magda Szubanski has thrown her support behind independent candidate Dr Kerryn Phelps.

1.00pm

Sharma pleads with locals to vote for Australia

In a campaign video posted late yesterday, Liberal candidate Dave Sharma outlined his political position as the potential member for Wentworth.

It’s a move that signals the dual significance this election holds for the local area for Wentworth and the greater significance of the seat in the house. If the Liberals lose Wentworth, they will lose their majority.

12.30pm

“A joke”: voters in Paddington irate at Canberra

— Our political reporter Sam Clench is in Paddington

There was a vibrant atmosphere in the affluent suburb in Sydney’s east this morning, but it had little to do with the by-election.

Most voters were quickly getting the chore of casting their ballots out of the way before enjoying the far more interesting Saturday markets at Paddington Public School.

In true Australian fashion, there were lots of sighs and a general sense of tiredness with the state of politics among the voters trickling in to the polling stations.

The Liberal Party’s campaign message that Dr Phelps was a threat to the stability of the parliament did not appear to have resonated — at least, not among the chattier voters.

“That’s a joke, isn’t it? After what they did to Malcolm?” Kim, a 67-year-old former teacher said.

“Go a full term without knifing your prime minister, then we’ll talk about stability.”

The Phelps campaign was trying to capitalise on that sentiment with well-placed signs bearing cardboard cutouts of Mr Turnbull, which asked, “Where’s Malcolm?”

The Liberals, meanwhile, warned voters a victory for Dr Phelps would only help the Labor Party.

“Labor + Phelps, don’t risk it,” warned large signs plastered along the footpaths of Oxford Street.

12.15pm

Labor candidate pleased with renewed support

Labor candidate Tim Murray has spoken this morning of renewed support for his party. Despite many considering the Wentworth election a two horse race, Murray has called Wentworth “the Liberals seat to lose”.

Speaking to ABC News Breakfast yesterday, he explained the depth of voter turnaround in the once Liberal stronghold. “They had the margin and now it’s being covered as if it’s a marginal seat.”

“I think it’s going to be a very interesting race.”

11.30am

Dr Kerryn Phelps in the lead, could bring down the government

Although official counting won’t begin until polls close, reports are beginning to refer to Dr Phelps as being “in the lead”. Polls are open for just over five more hours.

Speaking at Bondi Beach yesterday, Scott Morrison said the independent candidate, Dr. Kerryn Phelps, had “said that she could not guarantee not bringing down the government”.

“Now that's serious stuff,” Mr Morrison said. “They’re her own comments”, he added before going on to say it was the definition of instability. Morrison also said it was clearly the expectation that the Liberals would lose today’s by-election.

A lot is at stake for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Liberal Party candidate Dave Sharma. Photo: Monique Harmer
A lot is at stake for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Liberal Party candidate Dave Sharma. Photo: Monique Harmer
Dr Phelps is handing out how-to-vote cards in Bellevue Hill. Photo: Dan Himbrechts
Dr Phelps is handing out how-to-vote cards in Bellevue Hill. Photo: Dan Himbrechts

Internal Liberal Party polling this week favoured the independent candidate to win.

Sharma has received support from prominent local figure Anthony “Harries” Carrol, a lifeguard whom Sharma assisted in raising funds for local surf clubs. Picture: Bob Barker
Sharma has received support from prominent local figure Anthony “Harries” Carrol, a lifeguard whom Sharma assisted in raising funds for local surf clubs. Picture: Bob Barker
Liberal candidate Dave Sharma began his campaigning this morning at Rose Bay Public School, flanked by supporters. Photo: Tim Pascoe
Liberal candidate Dave Sharma began his campaigning this morning at Rose Bay Public School, flanked by supporters. Photo: Tim Pascoe

10.30am

Phelps rejects ScoMo as “the underdog”

Dr Phelps is currently at Double Bay Public school as she continues to campaign and greet voters. She is currently the favourite to win the by-election, but some commentators have suggested the government is managing expectations.

In an interview yesterday, PM Scott Morrison claimed the government was “the underdog”, but Dr Phelps was not in agreeance with the PM’s opinion.

Independent candidate Dr Phelps disagreed the Liberals were “the underdog”, a position championed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: John Feder.
Independent candidate Dr Phelps disagreed the Liberals were “the underdog”, a position championed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: John Feder.

Photos have emerged of Mr Sharma being mobbed by environmental protesters as he attempted to answer questions with Sky News this morning. The interview was halted by Mr Sharma, as protesters chanted “Stop Adani!”.

Protesters interrupted Sharma this morning as he attempted to conduct an interview, chanting “Stop Adani”. Photo: Tim Pascoe
Protesters interrupted Sharma this morning as he attempted to conduct an interview, chanting “Stop Adani”. Photo: Tim Pascoe

9.30am

Instability ahead for Australia as a hung parliament looks likely

“That’s the definition of instability,” said PM Scott Morrison, while angrily explaining Dr. Phelps refusal to back the government if she is to be elected today.

While voters stream into the polls in Wentworth, the feeling on the ground is one of anger. Voters have expressed their disappointment in the Liberal government and how many are changing their vote for the first time.

Wentworth is a Liberal stronghold, but all that is set to change, with a massive shift taking place, precipitated by the knifing of ex-PM Malcolm Turnbull.

In the lead up to the election, Turnbull’s son Alex called for voters in Wentworth to harness their displeasure at the government by not voting Liberal in today’s election.

One of Alex Turnbull’s main gripes was the Liberal’s lack of action on climate policy.

As Liberal candidate Dave Sharma tried to give an interview to Sky News in the last few minutes, protesters started chanting anti-Adani slogans and forced the interview to halt.

9.00am

Dave Sharma remains upbeat as Libs face defeat

Dave Sharma has continued campaigning this morning, maintaining that the by-election in the Wentworth will be “close”. He said voters faced an important choice, with the vote carrying both local and national significance.

Mr Sharma’s campaign straddled both local and national issues, with a message of “keeping the economy strong and keeping Australians safe”.

8am

Kerryn Phelps calls government campaign “reprehensible”

“I am hearing from the people that they want a strong, local independent who can represent the issues that they care about in Wentworth,” Dr Phelps said.

“What’s been missing in this campaign is a discussion about the issues. I’ve been talking about climate change, I’ve been talking about getting kids off Nauru.”

Dr Phelps went on to mention her plans to build a new state high school in the area. She said the Liberal Party had been focused on personal attacks, and labelled the smear campaign based around falsified emails which claimed she had been diagnosed with HIV as “reprehensible.”

“It just shows there is still a stigma around HIV”, said Dr Phelps, who is a practising GP.

In an interesting twist, Sky News revealed neither leading candidates will be eligible to vote in today’s election as they both live outside of the electorate.

7.30am

Polls open in the Wentworth Division for cliffhanger by-election

The polls are now open across the Wentworth divisions, which includes Sydney’s affluent Eastern suburbs, including many of Sydney’s iconic beaches like Bondi and Clovelly.

7.00am

Liberals facing defeat, big fallout for PM Scott Morrison

The Liberals are facing the prospect of an embarrassing defeat on Saturday as voters head to the polls in the Wentworth by-election.

The poll in Malcolm Turnbull’s old electorate looks set to be a close one with the Liberals’ replacement Dave Sharma struggling to pull ahead of independent Dr Kerryn Phelps.

Internal Liberal polling reportedly showed the Coalition is facing a disaster result in what would be a devastating blow to new prime minister Scott Morrison.

On Friday Nationals MP Darren Chester all but conceded defeat when he stated bluntly: “I don’t think the result is going to be good for us in Wentworth”.

Sportsbet also has Dr Phelps as the favourite to win the seat.

Despite reportedly securing Mr Turnbull’s support for his preselection run, the former PM has been very quiet in his public support of Mr Sharma and does not intend to be in the electorate this weekend. On Thursday, Mr Turnbull even liked a tweet posted by a supporter of Dr Phelps.

Meanwhile, Mr Turnbull’s son Alex has been openly urging voters not to vote for the Liberals to send the party a message. He previously tweeted support for Labor rival Tim Murray and more recently has been urging voters to vote for Dr Phelps.

ELECTION GUIDE: Everything you need to know about Wentworth by-election

Rivals: Liberals’ Dave Sharma and independent Kerryn Phelps at Bondi Surf Club. Picture: Hollie Adams/The Australian
Rivals: Liberals’ Dave Sharma and independent Kerryn Phelps at Bondi Surf Club. Picture: Hollie Adams/The Australian

6.30am

‘Despicable’ emails and HIV: Week of controversy

This week has been filled with controversy as it emerged a “despicable” email was being distributed falsely claiming Dr Phelps had HIV and was withdrawing from the contest. It has been slammed by both Dr Phelps and Mr Sharma.

The potential relocation of Australia’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem has also been criticised as being a desperate move to win the by-election, as about 12 per cent of the electorate is Jewish.

It was later reported that Australia’s spy agency warned government ministers that the shift could “provoke protest, unrest and possibly some violence in Gaza and the West Bank”, according to The Guardian.

RELATED: Morrison considers massive policy shift on Israel

RELATED: The battle for Wentworth gets dirty

The stakes are clearly very high for the government with its one-seat majority at risk. If the Liberals lose the seat of Wentworth, the government will need to get support from the crossbench for legislation it wants to pass.

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/voters-head-to-the-polls-in-the-wentworth-byelection/news-story/714dfe30f8ef84d5cb14cd8b89e9edfc