Voice to parliament ‘Yes’ campaign made ‘critical mistake’

As Australia edges closer to the voice referendum — one of the key players behind the idea has highlighted a “critical mistake” from the Yes side.

An Aussie pollster has given short shrift to a social user engaging in some subtle misinformation about the proposed Indigenous Voice referendum.

After a Twitter user suggested voting Yes would lead to Australia becoming “more racially divided” and a No vote would bring a “sudden end to racism”, Kosmos Samaras the director of Strategy and Analytics at RedBridge — and a former Labor campaign strategist — claimed the Yes vote was actually being driven by multicultural communities.

Mr Samaras told news.com.au there are three main demographic traits currently aligning with the Yes vote - a university degree, urban-rural divide and diversity.

Whites like you Kos? Or is this another racial group you’d like to see is divided into.

I am hoping the NO vote will bring to a sudden end racism like this.

If not then we will have to do whatever is necessary to push the southeast woke into the ocean.

— Daryl… (@MatherDaryl) June 11, 2023

“A state like Victoria where 78 per cent of its population live in Melbourne, is the most diverse city in the country – next to Sydney is recording a high Yes vote,” he said.

Mr Kosmos said multicultural communities are more likely to vote Yes because “they are more likely to have experienced some level of racism”

“This is especially the case with our two largest ethnic groups, Indian and Chinese. Hence Hindu and Buddhist respondents are the least likely to support the proposition that the Voice will racially divide us.”

RedBridge polling from May looking at reasons Australians are voting Yes. Picture: RedBridge

Kosmos Samaras broke down what the findings meant. Picture: RedBridge

He argued the Yes campaign has made a “critical mistake” by waiting so long to call a referendum.

“Not providing detail has increased levels of suspicion among voters and even angered voters who would normally have supported the proposition,” he said.

“Over the next few months, the economic headwinds will increase as over 600k households move from fixed interest rate repayments to variable. Voters will be far more preoccupied with their own economic survival than the Voice.”

Yes campaign ‘snookered’

The social media stoush comes as one of the architects of the voice, Noel Pearson, told The Sydney Morning Herald there needs to be a radical rethink of the Yes campaign.

He said the Yes movement lacks a clear message and had been snookered by arguments of its opponents.

In a significant intervention months out from a tightly contested referendum, Mr Pearson also said there was an urgent need to elevate the goal of recognising Indigenous Australians in the Constitution above the creation of the Voice advisory body.

“I think that message has got to be even more prominent than the voice. The voice is just the means; the core of the reform is recognition,” he said in an interview, “and our argument is that the Voice is the best means.”

Voice architect Noel Pearson. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Mr Pearson also was also adamnent the Yes campaign needs to simplify its message: “I think that’s a challenge we face at this stage of the campaign: we don’t have a clear message.”

No vote gaining momentum

The latest Newspoll shows the Yes campaign appears on shaky ground with support continuing to fall along class lines.

The poll, published in The Australian last week, shows only 46 per cent of voters approve of altering the Constitution to give effect to an Indigenous voice to parliament as proposed by the federal government.

With opinion almost equally divided, 43 per cent of voters said they would vote no, while 11 per cent said they didn’t know.

But it is the breakdown of the figures that is particularly telling.

The Yes campaign is being underpinned by tertiary educated Millennials and Gen Zers in capital cities and the No campaign by non-tertiary educated Boomers, mostly in the outer suburbs and regions.

Fifty-six per cent of university educated Australians are supporting the Voice to parliament compared to 35 per cent supporting the No case.

Assistant Minister indigenous Australians Senator Malarndirri McCarthy, Pat Anderson, Minister indigenous Australians Linda Burney and Lingiari MP Marion Scrymgour arrive to address the media earlier this year.

That vote is highest among the young – with 65 per cent between 18-34 voting Yes with only 21 per cent voting No.

For a referendum to be successful, the Yes vote must receive a majority of voters across a majority of states.

This is the first Newspoll survey to present voters with the precise question they will be asked at the ballot box when the referendum is held this year, making it the most significant poll to date.

The Newspoll question asked voters: Later this year, Australians will decide at a referendum whether to alter the Australian Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?