Voice to Parliament poll exposes huge class divide

The latest Newspoll is bad news for the ‘Yes’ campaign as a massive divide forms between Gen Z and Baby Boomers.

The latest Newspoll shows the Yes campaign appears on shaky ground with support continuing to erode along class lines.

The poll, published in The Australian on Sunday night, shows only 46 per cent of voters approve of altering the Constitution to give effect to an Indigenous Voice to Parliament as proposed by the federal government.

With opinion almost equally divided, 43 per cent of voters said they would vote no, while 11 per cent said they didn’t know.

But it is the breakdown of the figures that is particularly telling.

The Yes campaign is being underpinned by tertiary educated Millennials and Gen Zers in capital cities and the No campaign by non-tertiary educated Boomers, mostly in the outer suburbs and regions.

Fifty-six per cent of university educated Australians are supporting the Voice to Parliament compared to 35 per cent supporting the No case.

That vote is highest among the young – 65 per cent between 18-34 voting Yes with only 21 per cent voting No.

Australians last voted at a referendum in 1999, which asked whether or not Australia should become a republic, with the majority opting to remain as a constitutional monarchy.

The No vote received a majority nationally and in all states and territories except the ACT.

For a referendum to be successful, the Yes vote must receive a majority of voters across a majority of states.

Anthony Albanese. Picture: Getty Images

Troubling signs for the Yes campaign

This is the first Newspoll survey to present voters with the precise question they will be asked at the ballot box when the referendum is held this year, making it the most significant poll to date.

The Newspoll question asked voters: Later this year, Australians will decide at a referendum whether to alter the Australian Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?

Former Labor strategist and director of strategy and analytics at RedBridge Kosmos Samaras told news.com.au polls by RedBridge back up a similar trends around class.

“Our own research has also identified similar trends where support for the Voice is strong among highly educated Millennials in urban areas, while the No proposition enjoys greater support among less educated cohorts,” he said.

“There is also an age dynamic to Newspoll findings which we have identified. The Baby Boomer versus Millennial divide is evident, with over 65 per cent of respondents under 40 supporting a Yes vote versus over 60 per cent of Baby Boomer respondents supporting a No vote.”

Mr Samaras described it as a “very Brexit type of dynamic at play” and warned the general downward trend of the Yes vote needed to be addressed if it is to secure a majority of votes in four states.

Indigenous leader and key Voice to Parliament architect Noel Pearson.

Attack on Dutton

The poll comes after Noel Pearson accused Peter Dutton of being “duplicitous” over comments made that the Voice to Parliament will “re-racialise” the Constitution.

In the House of Representatives last month, when the legislation enabling the referendum was being discussed, Mr Dutton said some Australians will be more equal than others if it succeeds.

But speaking to Sky News Australia on Sunday, Mr Pearson said the Opposition leader confided to him that he did not want the Voice to Parliament to become a racial proposition.

“The disappointing thing about the position taken by Peter Dutton is that I met with him two or three times with Julian Leeser, when Julian was the spokesman for Aboriginal affairs,” he said.

Peter Dutton doesn’t agree with the Voice to Parliament model.

“At those meetings Peter was very clear in what he said to me. He said, ‘I do not agree with the race argument, don’t take me to be making a race argument’.

“He assured me that he did not take the Voice to be a racial proposition.”

The House of Representatives passed legislation to set up the referendum, likely to be held between October and December.