Sign NSW may lift some covid restrictions in Sydney next week

Has NSW done it again? It’s unclear whether the state will definitely be able to avoid lockdown, but the numbers are looking promising.

NSW is sticking to its decision not to go into lockdown and experts say it’s possible the state will be able to lift some restrictions next week.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced restrictions on Wednesday include limits to travel for some Sydneysiders and mandatory masks indoors, which are due to lift in one week.

The state has so far resisted going into a strict lockdown but the rules have meant many people are working from home and will be unable to travel outside of metropolitan Sydney during the first week of school holidays.

Whether residents will be able to enjoy more freedom after next week depends on several factors.

University of NSW Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said the restrictions did need to stay in place until next week.

She said authorities should know more on Sunday, which is one week — and one incubation period — after a man who got Covid-19 from “fleeting contact” with the original limousine driver case at Westfield Bondi Junction, passed it to a household contact in Wollongong.

Prof McLaws said this would be enough time to see whether cases had spread the virus outside their households.

“I think by this coming Sunday we’ll know whether or not further community spread has occurred,” she told news.com.au.

“But because we have Delta, we won’t be out of the woods until we start getting zero (case days).”

Infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon of Australian National University said it was possible restrictions could ease next week, although it was too early to predict.

He agreed that cases in the next three or four days would be crucial.

“If we see the epidemic curve turning, there are less cases per day and no mystery cases, if cases are in isolation, then we are likely to see lower levels of restriction,” he told news.com.au.

The first restrictions that could be eased include allowing people in Sydney to travel further, and possibly increasing the number of visitors allowed in people’s homes — potentially up to 10 people.

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NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has resisted calls for a lockdown in Sydney. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

“Masks indoors will probably stay for longer as they are less of an interruption to people’s lives than not being able to travel as far, and limiting household numbers,” Prof Collignon said.

He said Thursday’s case numbers were promising as even though the epidemic curve was not turning yet, it was also not exponentially rising.

“The next few days will be critical to know where the trajectory is going,” he said.

“At the moment it doesn’t seem out of control — I’m still optimistic it may level off.

“We may see cases for another week or two.”

Prof McLaws said the cases emerging now were all likely related to the limo driver who was diagnosed around June 16.

“So anyone who he came into contact with, it’s still within an incubation period that we’re experiencing,” she said.

Moving forward, cases that are not directly related to the limo driver will emerge and any mystery cases where a link cannot be established to a cluster may have potentially caused a second generation of cases.

“Some found positive today probably acquired the infection around the 18th or 19th” she said.

“If they haven’t been isolated for the last four or five days then they can become a second generation source in the community.”

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A number of people have become infected at Westfield Bondi Junction. Picture: Jenny Evans/Getty Images

NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant told reporters on Thursday there were three unlinked cases that contact tracers were still investigating. These were a Double Bay hairdresser, a nine-year-old child and a person in a health facility.

However, authorities do often discover links once they go through people’s movements thoroughly.

Prof McLaws said it was very difficult to know whether NSW will be able to avoid going into lockdown.

“This is a highly infectious disease and there are a number of missing links so this means there’s more likely to be more infections,” she said.

She supports the current restrictions, which she describes as “lockdown lite”, but believes the state should have introduced a short stay-at-home order earlier when there were only about six cases. The so-called Bondi cluster has now grown to 36 cases.

“The horse has bolted — they’ve called it too late but there doesn’t seem to be any way around this,” she said.

“The cases are concerning but may be expected, (however) this doesn’t excuse the slowness in response because some of these cases may have been able to be identified earlier and moved to a safe place away from households,” she said.

“We need to learn rapidly from experience in Victoria that it takes a very long time to get out of a cluster from a variant of concern.”

The NSW Premier acknowledged the state was going through perhaps “the scariest period” it had experienced since the pandemic began, but said she felt comfortable with the current level of restrictions.

“I do want to stress that my level of concern is medium to high across NSW,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“It is a very contagious variant but at this time, we are at this stage, comfortable that the settings that are in place, are the appropriate settings.”

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