The real losers in NSW election

The Liberal Party held off disaster in the NSW election on Saturday but there was one clear loser that could have bigger implications.

Charis Chang

@CharisChang2

4 min read

March 24, 2019 - 12:19PM

NSW election: Gladys Berejiklian will remain Premier

As Gladys Berejiklian stepped up to claim victory in Saturday’s NSW election it wasn’t the loss the party the polls were suggesting but there was a collapse in key votes that has left its majority hanging in the balance.

At the close of counting last night, the Liberal-Nationals were still one seat short of the 47 seats they needed to govern in their own right.

The numbers were too close to call on a number of seats but the Liberal Party looked to have held on to all their seats except one: the Sydney seat of Coogee.

It’s the National Party vote that has left the government’s majority hanging in the balance.

So far the Nationals looks to have lost three seats: the seat of Lismore to Labor’s Janelle Saffin and two other seats — in Barwon and Murray — to the Shooters Fishers and Farmers (SFF) party.

The Nationals is also under pressure in Dubbo, where there has been a 19.9 per cent swing away from the party. Dugald Saunders, who is replacing retiring MP Troy Grant, is ahead of independent Mathew Dickerson but the seat is too close to call.

However, the party does look to have held on to Upper Hunter.

Last night the SFF candidate for Barwon, Roy Butler, said the huge swing against the Nationals in country areas was the “price they pay for regional neglect”.

Barwon is a massive electorate that makes up 44 per cent of NSW’s land mass and has been held by the Nationals for almost 70 years.

The vegetarian cattle farmer said these areas had experienced a “massive decline in the quality of life”, that health services had been stripped away, there were water supply problems and life expectancy had gone backwards.

Residents have complained of bathing in brown-tinged water, driving hours to see a doctor and suffering through a crippling drought. That’s not to mention the mass fish kill in the Darling River and the mismanagement of the Murray Darling Basin.

“If we had the problems that are occurring out here in the city, people would be knocking down the door of their local member’s office,” Mr Butler told ABC.

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Roy Butler. Picture: Gavin Schmidt

The strong result for the SFF at the NSW election raises concerns for the Nationals vote at the next federal election due in May.

Former Labor upper house member Meredith Burgmann noted the dramatic increase in support for the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party, since it had changed its name from the Shooters Party.

“They have moderated their views on guns,” she told ABC. “They’ve had a very sophisticated leadership and so they are presenting themselves to country voters who are very angry with the Nationals.”

Ms Burgmann predicted that Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, whose federal electorate of New England neighbours the state electorate of Barwon “would move”.

“What will happen is the federal Nationals will see this as a bit of a disaster and they will be keen to really distinguish themselves from the Liberal Party,” she said.

Meanwhile Labor leader Michael Daley’s leadership is also under pressure after the disappointing result for his party.

While the Labor Party looks to have picked up two extra seats, its overall vote was down by 1 per cent, according to the ABC.

The swing against the Liberal Party was 2.1 per cent and the Nationals was 1.1 per cent.

Interestingly, the Christian Democrats vote also fell by 2.5 per cent.

Voters instead chose to give their votes to small parties like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Sustainable Australia, Animal Justice, Keep Sydney Open and One Nation.

NSW Labor leader Michael Daley has only been in the top job for four months but after Saturday’s poor showing his days could well be numbered.

New South Wales Labor leader Michael Daley. Picture: Lukas Coch/AAP

He vowed on Saturday night “it is my intention to remain the leader of the party” but admitted he was only “hopeful” of being in the role when parliament returns.

Labor frontbencher Jodi McKay — a potential leadership contender along with Chris Minns — backed Mr Daley to stay in the top job before adding: “In saying that, last week we had a bad week”.

“We had two incidents there which I think all of us wish hadn’t happened,” she said, referring to a video of Mr Daley saying Asian migrants were taking local jobs and his inability to recall, during a TV debate, how much the opposition had committed to schools and TAFE.

It’s not yet clear if the government will maintain its majority but even if it falls short Ms Berejiklian will be able to rely on the three returning independents — Wagga Wagga’s Joe McGirr, Sydney’s Alex Greenwich and Port Macquarie’s Greg Piper.

The Liberal-Nationals went into Saturday’s election with 52 seats in the lower house.

With almost 66 per cent of the vote counted the Liberal party and Nationals had won 46 seats of the 93 seats.

Ms Berejiklian, who was the first woman premier to be elected in NSW, told the party faithful she was incredibly proud of NSW where “someone with a long surname — and a woman — can be the premier”.