Kristina Keneally’s gamble in Fowler blows up in her face

Three nights before the election, Anthony Albanese popped up in a seemingly safe Labor seat, burning valuable time. Now we all know why.

Three nights before the election, amid his last-minute blitz of marginal seats across the country, Anthony Albanese did something curious: he spent the evening in what was supposed to be an ultra-safe Labor seat, Fowler.

The western Sydney electorate had never been held by anyone other than Labor. Retiring MP Chris Hayes won it with 64 per cent of the two-party vote in 2019. So why was Mr Albanese burning valuable time there in the dying days of the campaign?

We now know that Labor’s high profile candidate for the seat, Kristina Keneally, was in serious trouble.

Ms Keneally ended up losing Fowler to independent Dai Le. At the time of writing, it’s the only seat Labor already held that it has failed to retain.

The party gambled by parachuting Ms Keneally, who lived in Sydney’s northern beaches, into the electorate, pushing aside a good local candidate in the process. In its hubris, Labor thought it could impose an outsider on the seat and voters wouldn’t care.

That gamble blew up in its face.

Ms Keneally speaking to reporters at Club Marconi in Fowler on Wednesday night. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

The event Mr Albanese attended on Wednesday night was a gathering of the Italian-Australian community. Speaking to the Labor leader’s travelling press pack, Ms Keneally kept insisting it was a “national” event, i.e. not aimed at saving her skin.

“This is an event planned by the Italian-Australian community to welcome what they hope will be the first Italian-Australian prime minister,” she said.

News.com.au asked her about the impression among many locals that she was using the electorate for her own political advancement, as opposed to running out of a genuine concern for the issues affecting the community.

Her answer was not particularly compelling.

“With the retirement of Chris Hayes, many branch members in Fowler asked me to consider running,” said Ms Keneally.

“Many branch members would have preferred a local person, someone who’s actually from the community,” we put to her.

She said she was “delighted and honoured” to have won the preselection contest.

Ms Keneally was also asked about the fact that Mr Hayes, the outgoing MP, had advocated for a different Labor candidate, local lawyer Tu Le.

“Upon (Hayes’) retirement, there’s a great opportunity to give Fowler something they’ve never had before, which is a senior minister representing them in the House of Representatives,” Ms Keneally responded.

Ms Keneally was set to become home affairs minister in a Labor government.

It turned out the people of Fowler were more interested in being represented by someone who would actually ... you know, represent them.

Kristina Keneally campaigning with the Labor bus in Homebush. Picture: Liam Kidston

Dai Le speaking to voters at a pro-poll location in Cabramatta. Picture: Damian Shaw/NCA NewsWire

On Sky News last night – before Fowler had been called, but when it was clear Ms Keneally was in deep trouble – host Kieran Gilbert asked what had “gone wrong” in her campaign.

Again, her answer was less than compelling.

“I think in the days ahead, whether we win or lose here in Fowler, we’ll need to have a look at that. Because while I’m the candidate and I do take responsibility, we’re a party, we are a collective, and I have to say I don’t think the party saw this result either,” she responded.

“Fowler is not unusual in this election night, Kieran. We’re seeing some pretty unpredictable results right around the country.

“I think what we’re seeing here is a real rise of independents that I think both sides of politics are now having to consider. What we’ve seen in this campaign is people are interested in putting their votes somewhere other than the two major parties.

“I do think this is a question that both major parties are going to have to consider.”

That’s not entirely wrong. The Liberals certainly need to consider why they lost a series of previously safe seats to local independents. But Fowler actually was unusual – no other safe Labor seats fell. Ms Keneally was easily her party’s biggest loser of the night.

Looking back on her electoral history, you’ll notice a lot of losing. She lost more than half her party’s seats at a single wipe-out election as New South Wales premier, then lost a by-election in Bennelong, then got parachuted into the Senate without facing an election, then failed to win support from her party for a prime Senate ticket spot, and has now been parachuted into an apparently unlosable Labor seat – only to lose it.

Perhaps it’s time for a little less hubris, and a lot more introspection.