Concern over Australia’s vaccination targets as expert says the country ‘must do better’

Australians have now been given a vaccination target to aim for but one expert is concerned it may not be high enough.

Australians finally have a vaccination goal to work towards that will end lockdowns but there’s already concern the targets are too low.

On Friday, National Cabinet agreed in-principle to a four-step Covid-19 transition plan, based on modelling by the Doherty Institute and Department of Treasury economic analysis.

It sets 70 per cent and 80 per cent vaccination targets that will see the phasing out of lockdowns and the return of more international travellers.

But University of NSW Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an adviser to the World Health Organisations, noted that the government’s targets were only for adults over the age of 16 years old.

They only equate to about 56 per cent and 64 per cent of the total population of Australia when children are included.

“Australia must do better than these,” Prof McLaws tweeted.

She said she had calculated Australia needed at least 68 per cent of the total population (and preferably 80 per cent) to be vaccinated.

The United Kingdom has opened up with about 57 per cent of its total population fully vaccinated but there has been about 5.9 million cases of covid in the country (around 8 per cent of the population) so it benefits more from the natural immunity in the community among those who’ve had the disease.

In Australia, there have been 33,909 confirmed covid cases – equivalent to about 0.1 per cent of the population.

The Grattan Institute has also recommended fully vaccinating 80 per cent of all Australians and 95 per cent of the over 70s, before ending lockdowns and beginning to reopen the border.

“Opening up too early – for example, at 50 per cent or 70 per cent – would risk rampant spread of the virus and hospitals being overwhelmed,” it said.

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Residents queue up outside a pharmacy for a Covid-19 vaccination in western Sydney on July 30. Picture: Saeed Khan/AFP

Grattan suggests lockdowns can be avoided and quarantine requirements removed for the fully vaccinated once 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated.

Once 85 per cent are vaccinated, all international border restrictions could be removed for those who are vaccinated and vaccine passports could be scrapped.

The government’s four-point plan would see vaccinated Australians benefit from reduced quarantine requirements once 56 per cent of the total population is vaccinated in Phase B. There would also be a phasing out of lockdowns.

Metropolitan-wide lockdowns would be a thing of the past once 64 per cent of the population was vaccinated as part of Phase C, with vaccinated residents able to live without restrictions.

There would still be some restrictions on international travel but caps on vaccinated Australians returning from overseas would be removed, travel bubbles expanded, and more student, economic and humanitarian visa holders allowed into the country.

All restrictions wouldn’t be lifted until Australia gets to “Phase D” and there is no target set for this yet.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said there was no recommendation from the Doherty Institute about this because it was too difficult to predict what the situation would be that far into the future.

Until the Phase B vaccination target is achieved, Mr Morrison said Australians should expect to live with “early and stringent and short lockdowns” in order to deal with Delta outbreaks.

“That is a clear learning of the events of recent weeks and months in terms of the activity of the Delta strain and the work we have looked at around the world to inform that decision,” he told reporters on Friday.

More than 12 million vaccine doses have now been delivered in Australia, with 19 per cent of people fully vaccinated with two doses.

Mr Morrison said states and territories would move to each phase once the national average had reached each vaccination target and once each state had itself reached those targets.

“So, it’s like a two key process,” he said.

“This plan, I should also stress, as we’ve learnt all the way through Covid-19, is subject to the rules that indeed Covid-19 writes itself. New variants that can emerge.

“If this were to occur, then of course, we would look at those very carefully.”

Data analyst Anthony Macali, who manages the website covidlive.com.au estimates that it could take until early December to reach the Phase B target, and early January to reach Phase C, at the current rate of vaccination. However, vaccinations are expected to ramp up further so these targets may be reached earlier.

Grattan has estimated that 80 per cent of Australia’s total population could be vaccinated as early as the end of this year if a vaccine becomes available in coming months for children under 12.

“If a vaccine is not approved for children under 12, a target date of March next year would be more realistic,” it states.

Australia’s Phase B

Australia’s national plan sees the country transitioning to “Phase B” once 70 per cent of the country’s adult population over 16 years old (56 per cent of the total population) is vaccinated. • Lockdowns will be unlikely but possible and targeted

• Caps on inbound passenger arrivals will be restored to previous levels

• Larger caps for vaccinated returning Australians will be introduced, although details are still to be worked out

• Reduced quarantine requirements for vaccinated residents

• Capped entry of student and economic visa holders, subject to quarantine, will be allowed.

Phase C

This phase will come into effect once 80 per cent of adults are vaccinated (64 per cent of total population).

• Should not be broad metropolitan-wide lockdowns, although highly targeted lockdowns may still be possible

• Those who are vaccinated won’t have to follow any domestic restrictions

• The caps on vaccinated returning Australians will be removed and people will also be allowed to leave the country without restrictions. Capped entry of student, economic and humanitarian visa holders will be increased.

The travel bubble for unrestricted travel will be extended to more safe countries, with the government already working with Singapore and Pacific countries about this.

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