Omicron set to become ‘dominant Covid-19 strain within 48 hours’, say UK officials
It’s taken just a few weeks but ominouly, Omicron is set to outpace Delta cases within just hours across many parts of the globe.
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 is surging through the UK at such a rate it could be the “dominant” form of the virus in London within 48 hours displacing Delta, Britain’s Health Secretary has said.
The warning from Sajid Javid comes as the UK recorded its first death in a person infected with Omicron, the first fatality globally.
But the doctor who first brought the world’s attention to Omicron has repeated her assertion that the variant is “mild” and out-competing Delta might be no bad thing as the former variant appeared to make people sicker.
A month after Omicron was first discovered, in South Africa’s bustling Gauteng province and linked back to Botswana, cases are rising worldwide and restrictions are being reimposed in some nations.
But whereas, South Africa has few Delta cases before Omicron came along, other nations are also seeing the huge rise of the new variant suggesting it will defeat Delta and become the major global strain.
‘This feels like a lockdown’
Yesterday, the Norwegian Government announced a ban on serving alcohol in bars and restaurants, the closing of gyms, stricter rules in schools and other measures.
“The new variant changes the rules,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told reporters.
“That’s why we need to act fast and we need to act again.
“For many this will feel like a lockdown, if not of society then of their lives and of their livelihoods.”
The Scandinavian country is seeing a record uptick in cases, partly blamed on Omicron. Although deaths remain low.
In NSW, 804 new cases were reported on Tuesday which is a 10-week high. Relatively few of these are Omicron – the rise could be also be down to pre-Christmas socialising – but health officials expect cases of the new variant to rise after several probable super spreader events.
Only one person infected with Omicron is in hospital, however.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is reluctant to impose further restrictions and has said vaccination is the key.
Daily cases in the UK are now exceeding 50,000 of which fewer than 5000 are Omicron, but Health Secretary Mr Javid said there could in reality be as many as 200,000 new cases of Omicron popping up every day.
Omicron set to become ‘dominant variant’ in 48 hours
Omicron now accounted for 20 per cent of recorded new Covid cases in England and 44 per cent of cases in London and was expected to become the dominant strain in the city within the next 48 hours, the BBC reported him as saying.
In Denmark too, Omicron could be in the majority of cases by the end of the week.
“The speed of it is surprising. If it can overcome Delta in the UK, then it will do elsewhere,” Linda Bauld, a professor at the University of Edinburgh's College of Medicine told The Washington Post.
Deaths remain relatively steady in the UK and are far below where they were with either the Delta or Alpha variants.
Nonetheless, authorities are concerned. The Guardian has reported that England’s National Health Service is on a “crisis footing” with many patients being discharged to free up space in case of Omicron hospitalisations.
One person has now died with Omicron in the UK and 10 are in hospital – most double jabbed.
Mr Javid said as Omicron cases grew, the country could expect hospitalisation “numbers to dramatically increase in the days and weeks that lie ahead”.
He said Britain was in a “race between the virus and the vaccine”.
British PM Boris Johnson has said he wants all adults in England to be offered a booster by New Year’s Eve.
The British Medical Association has said newly imposed restrictions, such as working from home, may not be enough.
South Africa doctor; ‘Trust us, it’s mild’
But amid the panic, the doctor who was one of the first to identify Omicron has urged people and nations to put the variant into perspective.
Talking to UK radio station LBC on Sunday, Dr Angelique Coetzee of the South African Medical Association said Omicron had not caused the level of hospitalisations as seen in Delta despite it circulating in the country for at least four weeks.
“With Delta, the cytokine storm (a potentially life threatening condition where the immune system goes into overdrive to fight off an infection) normally happens from day 10 and we had to prepare for that. But that is not happening (with Omicron).
“This is the real life experience that we’re having.
“Yes it’s highly contagious and you can have a million cases but the severity of the diseases is not Delta.”
That didn’t mean people weren’t going to get sick, said Dr Coetzee, “but it will be the minority and at this stage our ICUs are not full.
“There’s no reason why you can’t trust us when we say to you, it’s a mild disease.”
Dr Coetzee’s confidence that Omicron will remain a milder variant to Delta is not shared by all with many in the health field urging caution and stating that it could still be too early to truly understand its effects.
South Africa, for instance, has a double vaccinated rate of only around 20 per cent meaning its population is less protected against Covid. However, it also has a relatively young population who may be better a fighting off Omicron.
Once the variant gets into older groups, the outcome might not be so rosy.
There are also concerns that a milder variant could still cause pressure on the health system. Even if only a small percentage of people who catch Omicron need hospitalisations, if it spreads far more widely that’s still a lot of beds being filled.
Omicron dominance could be positive
However, a less harmful variant that can kick Delta to the kerb, as appears to be occurring in London, might be no bad thing.
“If this is milder than Delta, you actually want it to spread as quickly as possible. You want it to out-compete Delta and become the predominant circulating virus,” former Australian chief health office Dr Nick Coatsworth said late last month.
That point was echoed by Dr Rob Grenfell, a special health Adviser at the CSIRO, who told the AFR that Omicron could be an exit route from the yo-yo-ing of lockdowns.
“If this is less serious and becomes the dominant variant then it could be the next step in living with Covid-19.”
With Omicron becoming top Covid dog in London in a matter of days, we may soon find out if it’s a step forward out of restrictions and the reason for more to come.
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