The one thing that could stop Donald Trump
THE anti-Trump faction in the Republican Party could still turn to one ultimate act of desperation to stop him.
WHEN Donald Trump was making outrageous statement after outrageous statement early in his presidential campaign, the Republican Party’s elder statesmen maintained an uneasy silence.
In December they were briefly forced to speak up, as Trump proposed that all foreign Muslims be banned from the US. Senior figures moved to distance the party from his remarks.
Now, after three more months of Trump doing and saying whatever he pleases, they’re in full-blown panic mode, as the rest of the world watches his seemingly unstoppable rise with grim fascination.
The businessman’s candidacy started out as a bad joke, but his bombastic style has resonated with disenfranchised voters and is threatening to leave the Grand Old Party in tatters.
Republican stalwarts are now desperately seeking any way to stop Trump - even if it means handing victory to Hillary Clinton in November. Meanwhile, Trump keeps picking up votes. He notched up wins in Louisiana and Kentucky over the weekend, though his momentum appears to be slowing.
This situation is virtually unprecedented, and it’s prompted a surge in speculation that a “brokered convention” could be the only chance to stop Trump.
Among those backing the tactic is 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who condemned Trump in a speech on Friday.
“Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud. His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump Univesity. He’s playing the American public for suckers,” Romney said.
“Let me put it plainly. If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, the prospects for a safe and prosperous future are greatly diminished.”
Romney called on Republican supporters to cast tactical votes for whichever candidate is most likely to beat Trump in each state. The end result of that strategy would almost certainly be a brokered convention.
WHAT IS A BROKERED CONVENTION?
American elections are notoriously complex. To understand how a brokered convention works, we need to look at how the winning candidate is chosen.
From July 18-21 this year, 2472 Republican delegates from every state in America will gather in Cleveland, Ohio to officially choose the nominee at the Republican National Convention. These delegates are each assigned a candidate based on the results of the primary or caucus in their state.
To win the nomination outright, a candidate needs to have a majority of the delegates - at least 1237 of them. Here’s the current delegate count:
Donald Trump: 391
Ted Cruz: 304
Marco Rubio: 148
John Kasich: 37
Other: 26
Trump is sitting pretty with 43 per cent of the delegates that have been assigned so far, but he’s below the 50 percent threshold he’ll require at the convention.
Ordinarily the party would encourage the also-rans - looking at you, Kasich - to drop out of the race and throw their support behind one of the two remaining candidates. Instead, Romney’s call for a tactical vote is aimed at denying any candidate a majority of delegates, which would lead to a brokered convention.
At that point, all bets are off, and delegates can switch their support to whoever they like. In theory, the party will then rally round a single unifying figure who will take the fight to the Democrats in the November.
SO, WHO COULD STEP UP AND SAVE THE PARTY?
The name on many pundits’ lips is a familiar one: Mitt Romney.
Romney himself has dismissed that talk, claiming the scenario is ‘‘as likely as Barack Obama asking me to step in as President”. But he has also refused to rule himself out, in case his party needs him. Unsurprisingly, this hasn’t gone down well with the candidates actually campaigning for the nomination.
Donald Trump’s supporters are accusing the Republican establishment of trying to steal the nomination from them. Ted Cruz has also condemned the idea, calling it a huge mistake that would prompt a massive voter revolt.
It’s hard to argue with this. The Republican Party only need to look at Australia to see how well the electorate responds to the perceived subjugation of its democratic rights. It would risk leaving the GOP split in two, handing the presidency to the Democrats in November.
ARE THERE ANY ALTERNATIVES?
A softer option for the Republicans could be for Cruz and Rubio to put aside their differences and run together on the same ticket, with Cruz in the hot seat and Rubio settling for nomination as vice president - or vice versa, depending on which candidate ends up with more delegates.
It would be an odd pairing, but not without precedent. In 1980 Ronald Reagan joined forces with opponent George H.W. Bush before going on to win that year’s general election. Such a move would surely give Cruz and Rubio the best chance of beating Trump fair and square.
As for Trump, what are his options if the Republicans make good on their threats to block his nomination? In theory, he could run as an independent, but he’s pledged not to. There’s also a more technical question mark over his ability to meet key state ballot requirements if he waits until after the convention.
But if the 2016 campaign has taught us anything, it’s to avoid underestimating Donald Trump.
Whatever the outcome, the crass-talking, billionaire everyman won’t be going quietly.
‘All become victims’: China’s threat to world
China has issued a stark warning to the rest of the world, saying “all will become victims” if they come between it and the US in their trade war.
‘Lot to lose’: Pundits divided on debate winner
With no official winner in the second leaders’ debate, pundits were keen to have their say - but there was no consensus on who emerged the victor.
‘$23m’: Musk’s wild birth demands emerge
Behind Elon Musk’s mission to “repopulate” the earth lies an alleged web of secrecy and financial coercion, particularly when it comes to the mothers of his children.