Jacinda Ardern risks losing support by moving NZ election date

Jacinda Ardern’s announcement today that the NZ election will be delayed by a month could have negative consequences for the PM.

A month-long delay to New Zealand’s election day could be bad news for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern as it could give time for the opposition to claw back some ground if “bungles” in the handling of the pandemic are revealed.

But Ms Ardern had little choice but to move polling day until October given the unfolding coronavirus outbreak in Auckland, commentators have said.

On Monday morning, Ms Ardern announced the upcoming general election, which had been expected to be called for September 19, would now be held on October 17.

“I have thought about every single element of this and there are many, many knock-on effects,” the PM, who leads the Labour Party, said.

“Ultimately, I do need to provide certainty, a sense of fairness and a sense of comfort to voters that this will be a safe election.”

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New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern arrives at a press conference this morning to announce a delay in the election that was scheduled for September 19. Picture: Marty Melville/AFP.

On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, who is the leader of Labour’s coalition partner New Zealand First, called for the election to be delayed.

With Ms Ardern’s Labour-led coalition only having a slim majority in New Zealand’s House of Representatives, Mr Peters’ wishes carry a lot of weight. If his party had voted with the opposition Nationals that could have forced a delay to the poll anyway.

Nine new COVID-19 infections were reported in New Zealand on Monday with 78 active cases. Mystery continues to surround how the virus began circulating again 102 days after the previous case of community transmission.

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Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters had said the election should be delayed. Picture: Kevin Stent/Getty Images.

MISTAKES AND BUNGLES
Last week, before the new Auckland cases emerged, Ms Ardern had said it would be a “COVID election”. Opinion polls had shown a commanding lead for Labour with widespread plaudits for its handling of the pandemic.

Speaking to news.com.au last week, politics professor at New Zealand’s Massey University, Richard Shaw, said the risk for Labour and Ms Ardern was if the virus came back, exactly what has now happened.

Delaying the election might give the impression Labour’s management of the crisis was not as professional as it first seemed.

“There might be a hope (from the Opposition) that there will be a softening of Labour’s figures that people won’t be bothered to lockdown and they’ll blame Ardern,” Prof Shaw said.

“If it transpires there was a breakdown, that might bounce back on Labour. But the Opposition are basically just waiting for something to go wrong now.”

Political editor of New Zealand news website Stuff, Luke Malpass, said the delay was “the call Jacinda Ardern had to make”.

“In pushing it back, the PM has reached a sensible compromise that takes into account both the practical undertaking of an election and, even more importantly, the appearance and reality of fairness.”

But Mr Malpass said the election delay would give time for insecurities around lifestyle, jobs and incomes to “bubble away” in the minds of voters.

That on its own still might not push enough voters to the National Party to have a fundamental effect on the election outcome, he added.

“It is hard to see that this month’s delay will materially change the polling – unless new and significant mistakes and bungles are revealed”.

Unfortunately for the Government, mistakes and bungles are now coming to the fore.

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Kiwis will now go to the polls on October 17. Picture: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images.

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Last week, Ms Ardern had said border staff that processed quarantined travellers were being tested weekly.

It has since been revealed that only 60 per cent of staff were being swabbed for COVID-19 with that level of regularity. That raised concerns this might be the weak point in New Zealand’s coronavirus strategy and staff could have been bringing the virus home to their families.

This comes on top of earlier errors in quarantine with hundreds of travellers not being tested for the virus. Two British visitors were also allowed to depart their hotel early on compassionate grounds, only to soon afterwards test positive for COVID-19.

On Sunday, National Party Leader Judith Collins said the lack of testing of border staff was “staggeringly unacceptable”.

“It’s unthinkable that such incompetence has been allowed to go on, when we all, as five million, underwent weeks of lockdown,” she told the New Zealand Herald.

Prof Shaw told news.com.au it was still likely Ms Ardern would remain as PM after the October 17 election.

“I’m detecting almost no blow back on Ardern. There is a general sense that we did (lockdown) once, we can do it again, and we don’t want to let it get out of control and be buggered like our Australian friends.”

This morning, Ms Ardern said moving the election would give all parties a “fair shot” at campaigning as well as enabling arrangements to be made by the country’s Electoral Commission to ensure polling day was safe and accessible.

She warned, however, that the election would not be delayed again.