How the South Australia election result could affect Scott Morrison

As South Australians are set to head to the polls, many are wondering how the vote could impact Scott Morrison come the federal election.

Both Scott Morrison and Steven Marshall are trying to beat the odds, with their leadership seemingly following a similar trajectory.

The South Australian Premier is set to become just the second state Liberal leader in half a century to survive a full term and face re-election.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is the first federal Liberal to hold onto the Lodge for a full term since John Howard.

It’s quite the feat for both leaders. But neither are coming to their respective elections unscathed.

Scott Morrison and Steven Marshall are both hoping voters stick with the status quo Picture: Anna Rogers

A year ago, incumbency was considered to be a government’s strongest weapon.

But as the daily news cycle shifts from Covid, both men are faced with the real prospect that voters are confident enough to now vote against the status quo.

If polls are to be believed, Mr Marshall is facing an uphill battle.

He not only has to retain the seats the government already holds, but wrestle those seats back from three Liberal defectors.

That is a much tougher task than the reality faced by the Prime Minister in May.

But the similarities are there.

State Labor has been leading the two-party vote in published polls. Leader Peter Malinauskas has also pulled ahead of Mr Marshall as preferred premier.

The final Newspoll of the election campaign, published by The Australian on Saturday, shows Labor has a 54-46 two-party preferred lead, up from 53-47 three weeks ago.

Mr Malinauskas continues to be preferred Premier and also has a higher satisfaction rating with voters.

Speaking candidly to reporters on election day, Mr Marshall batted away questions about his underdog status.

“There’s a little bit of uncertainty in the world at the moment, some people have been concerned about the coronavirus pandemic, and we see polls moving around all the time,” he said.

“I’m quite confident that when people get into that booth today, they will be voting for what’s in their best interest – a continuing Liberal government in South Australia.”

Premier Steven Marshall on Saturday batted away questions about his “underdog” status. Picture: Tom Huntley

He further criticised Mr Malinauskas over his union ties and claimed his competitor had never held an economic portfolio.

“It seems to me that Peter Malinauskas hasn’t met one person he’s not promising money to. That’s no way to run an economy, that’s no way to run a state,” Mr Marshall said.

“I think we’ve been very clear with the people of South Australia, this is not a time to just be spraying money around like confetti.”

Recent polls suggest opposition leader Peter Malinauskas is in pole position. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Mr Malinauskas also downplayed the latest polling figures on election day.

“This election will be close. It is unwise for politicians to try and presume results or predict results. That is a mug’s game,” he told reporters.

“I am confident I have done all the work and my team has done all the work that we can to put ourselves in a position to offer a credible alternative for the future of our state.

“That gives me confidence but it will be up to South Australians to decide and I am entirely comfortable with that. Wouldn’t have it any other way.”

Recent polling suggests federal Labor is also in the box seat.

Even Anthony Albanese – who has struggled to define himself with voters – has levelled Mr Morrison as preferred Prime Minister.

However, either way the state result falls, it will have little implication beyond Mr Morrison losing a Liberal ally at the national cabinet table and the trend of incumbency during Covid falling.

Federally, the only seat considered at play in the state is Boothby.

Labor has been claiming for years the seat in Adelaide’s south can be turned red, but it has yet to yield a result.

However, with incumbent Liberal MP Nicolle Flint retiring, it opens the door for a three-way contest between nominated successor Rachel Swift, Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost and independent Jo Dyer.

Anthony Albanese with the federal Labor candidate for Boothby, Louise Miller-Frost, and Peter Malinauskas on the election trail. Picture NCA NewsWire/Emma Brasier

But that won’t stop the federal campaigns for both sides sifting through the results looking for clues to how the May poll should be run.

Mr Marshall’s campaign has been based around the economy and jobs in defence and space industries.

But Labor’s message on health has cut through – helped by the Liberal premier’s decision to reopen the borders as Omicron spread across the country late last year.

Likewise, the Prime Minister has been eager to wrestle the national agenda away from Covid and onto national security – challenging the opposition to sway from bipartisanship as a wedge.

Mr Morrison could lose his ally at the national cabinet table. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dean Martin.

But the biggest lesson for Labor could be about the importance of peaking at the right time.

Mr Malinauskas has run a slick presidential style campaign, and in the final week came out on top of his opponent in the last debate before voters head to the polls.

It's the same style Mr Morrison himself used in his 2019 “miracle” election win.

If Mr Malinauskas pulls off a victory on Saturday, it won’t be the start of a death spiral for the Prime Minister.

But it will be a sign there is rough terrain ahead.