Bill English or Jacinda Ardern — who will be New Zealand Prime Minister?

KIWIS are heading to the polls and all signs point to a close result after a dramatic campaign, with the potential for a huge upset.

The race to become NZ Prime Minister is almost over.

IT has been billed as a real cliffhanger — will New Zealand voters stick with the familiar and re-elect Prime Minister Bill English or leap into the unknown and pick his young and popular rival Jacinda Ardern?

For the first time in almost a decade voters across the Tasman will go into a General Election with the result far from a sure thing.

That’s largely due to the sudden rise of Ms Ardern who, until seven weeks ago, was the deputy leader of the main opposition party Labour.

Since then the 37-year-old has been able to bring Labour back from the political death. Her predecessor Andrew Little quit on August 1 as polls plunged to 23 per cent, but when she took over polls showed Labour overtook National for the first time in 12 years.

Mr English has only been Prime Minister since December after replacing the mega-popular John Key who stepped down with a sky high approval rating.

His National party has won three elections in a row and have dominated politics to such an extent it seemed they would win a rare fourth term.

Jacinda Ardern and Bill English debated three times on television.

The latest polls have National with a comfortable lead over Labour, but they have swung so wildly throughout the five week campaign no one can be sure of what might happen next.

And as we have seen with the Trump victory in the US and Brexit result in the UK upsets can and do happen.

Results from advance voting will be released by about 5.30pm (AEST) and by 7.30pm-8pm (AEST) we should have a good idea about the state of the parties.

JACINDAMANIA

Local media have dubbed the huge support for Ms Ardern as “Jacindamania” and have likened her rise to that of Canada’s Justin Trudeau and France’s Emmanuel Macron.

The only problem with that comparison is Ms Ardern is yet to win.

Her supporters hope the massive following she has with under-30s will help push her across the line in a “youthquake” that saw UK Prime Minister Theresa May lose her majority earlier this year.

She has certainly drawn big crowds across the country and appears to have stirred genuine excitement among Kiwis.

Within days of becoming leader hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations had rolled in and so did the volunteers.

New Zealand Labour leader Jacinda Ardern.

Supporters say she has the same star quality that made Mr Key so popular, but others have pointed to her relative inexperience — she has never served in government — as evidence she is not ready to take control.

Ms Ardern made international headlines when she faced questions about her plans to have children, which she firmly shutdown, saying the questions were “unacceptable”.

If Labour wins, Ms Ardern will be the third woman to be Prime Minister and she will be the youngest since 1856.

BILL ENGLISH: TAKE TWO

Mr English has been in Parliament since 1990 and led National from 2001-2003.

His first stint included a devastating loss in 2002 where he led the party to its worst ever defeat.

He reinvented himself as the finance spokesman and once Mr Key swept to power in 2008 became his Finance Minister [Treasurer] and Deputy Prime Minister. He also served in both roles until he became Prime Minister last December.

NZ PM Bill English is seeking a rare fourth term for his National party.

Considered to be far less charismatic than Ardern, he has still managed to overcome her initial burst of popularity with solid performances during leaders debates and by campaigning heavily on the notion of stability.

He has urged Kiwis not to take a risk with Labour, as doing so would harm the good economic recovery that has seen the country dubbed “the rock star economy” by international commentators.

HUNG PARLIAMENT MOST LIKELY

There’s a good chance we won’t know who the Government will be even after tonight’s vote. New Zealand has the Mixed Member Proportional voting system which usually means no one party can command a majority in the 120 seat House of Representatives without forming a coalition or minority government.

Unlike in Australia — where the thought of a hung parliament can give politicians and the public nightmares — it is quite normal across the Tasman. In fact, the last majority government was elected there in 1993.

Jacinda Ardern is hoping to become New Zealand’s third female Prime Minister.

But what this does mean is some negotiating and deal-making to get to the 61 seats needed to be able to be allowed to form a government.

Current polls suggest either National or Labour could govern with the help of the nationalist New Zealand First led by political veteran Winston Peters.

On the left, the Greens could play a major role in helping Labour win government. But that is only if they win at least five per cent of the vote.

Under MMP, voters get two votes. One vote is for a local member, elected by simple majority or ‘first past the post’ voting. The second vote is for a party list.

The party vote is the more important of the two because party vote is used to determine the proportional make-up of the parliament.

But here’s the twist. A party has to get five per cent of the party vote to get into parliament if they don’t have an electorate seat.

And for a party like the Greens who don’t have an electorate getting to the all important five per cent is a life or death [or at least life away from parliament] moment.

Bill English once led National to its worst ever defeat — but signs are there he may overpower a late Labour challenge.