Queensland voters to decide who they want to run the state at the October 26 election
Queensland voters are likely to tell Labor to hit the road as cost-of-living pressures continue to mount and an election bloodbath looms.
Labor is facing the possibility of a bloodbath when Queenslanders go to the polls within weeks, with one expert expecting the LNP to take power with “99.9 per cent certainty”.
It’ll be the first time Queenslanders have an official say on whether Premier Steven Miles has been doing a good enough job to hold onto power.
His ascent to the top job came after his predecessor Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in December.
The former Labor leader shocked everyone to topple Campbell Newman’s LNP government in 2015, going from a miserable seven seats to 42 to form minority government. Ms Palaszczuk went on to win the next two elections.
Now it’s up to Mr Miles to try to win Labor a fourth term in a battle against Opposition Leader David Crisafulli, who is tipped to win.
It’s a concerning thought for Labor, with the latest Newspoll, conducted from September 12-18 from a sample of 1047 people, having the Liberal National Party (LNP) ahead by 10 points with a 55-45 lead.
That figure, if reproduced on October 26, would give the LNP a majority of 55 of the 93 seats in parliament and represent an 8.2 per cent swing against Labor from the 2020 election.
It also suggests Labor could lose at least 20 seats, including five held by ministers, at the state election.
Griffith University politic lecturer Paul Williams said he expected the LNP to secure 58 to 60 seats at the election.
“The LNP will win with 99.9 per cent certainty and win comfortably,” he said.
“The Labor Party will be reduced to a seat total in the 20s.”
Dr Williams said this would also be reflective of the electorate recorrecting the swing from the 2020 Covid election, where Labor won seats they probably shouldn’t have otherwise.
“Voters were grateful for the strength of government (during Covid),” he said.
“The swing (in this election) isn’t going to be the usual, the swing is going to be very large.”
In order to secure victory, the LNP must win 14 seats off Labor to form a majority government.
These seats are Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Redlands, Aspley, Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel and Redcliffe.
How voter ‘fatigue’ could impact the election
The latest Newspoll revealed 57 per cent of respondents said it was time for a change in government, while 29 per cent said Labor deserved to be re-elected.
With Labor having held power for 30 of the past 35 years, political scientist and University of Queensland lecturer Adam Hannah said voters could simply be looking to switch things up.
“It’s certainly the dynamics of a ‘time for a change’ election,” Dr Hannah said.
“With three terms, or nine years in government, quite often you start to see that dynamic to emerge.
“Once that happens to a government, it’s quite difficult to shift.”
But Dr Williams dismissed this, saying there’s “no such thing as the tired factor”.
“There’s too many other variables at play,” Dr Williams said.
Dr Williams said people could get “fatigued” by the government of the day but that was generally because they felt the government was not performing.
However, even if that’s the sentiment, Dr Williams said fatigue might not be enough for people to vote the government out of office.
He said instead it would depend on whether voters believed the opposition would make a better government.
“It’s very rare for a poor opposition to beat a better government,” he said.
“We know that the No.1 issue is cost of living and No.2 is crime, particularly youth crime.”
Dr Williams said “either one of those would be enough to cripple the Miles government”, but coupling those issues with Labor’s leadership problems of the past, voters would likely turn to the LNP.
“Voters are looking at a Labor Party who has suffered a poor image because of the leadership change and that’s exacerbated by costs of living and crime,” he said.
“Youth crime would have been enough to tip the balance.
“Throw in cost of living, throw in what looked like clumsiness over Olympic infrastructure, you can even throw back to the 2022 allegations of impropriety in the Coaldrake Report that there’s too close a relationship between Labor and lobbyists, and you throw in two unpopular leaders … it becomes a perfect storm.
“That’s why we’re seeing such a big swing.”
Chance to ‘take risks’
Dr Hannah believes this is why the Miles government has been “willing to take a few risks” in the lead-up to the election.
The government, and the opposition, have both committed to continuing the 50c travel fares only weeks after Labor launched the six-month trial in August.
Another proposal slated by the government should they win a fourth term was to invest in state-operated petrol stations.
“These a proposals you might not necessarily see in the normal course of a government,” Dr Hannah said.
“But from the polling, it doesn’t seem that any of those have made a substantial shift.”
Dr Hannah said voters would likely be thinking about cost-of-living pressures when they head to the polls.
“Voters are really focused on cost of living, it’s the single issue at the moment,” he said.
“It would makes sense they (Labor) put into the narrative that they’re pulling out all stops supporting people, but because they’ve been in power for so long they have to take ownership of these problems.
“The other two big issue are housing and health.
“Those are also quite challenging because you think about health care as a traditional Labor issue and something they’d want to campaign on.
“But given we have a healthcare shortage, that becomes a really difficult issue.
“They’ve been the ones managing the health system being in government for nine years.
“It mitigates to play to traditional Labor issues when you have sustained issues in that area.”
Dr Williams said while Labor had recently improved in the polls, it might only be temporary.
“We can attribute that improvement to Labor’s generous budget,” he said.
“The 50 cent fares are very popular, the $1000 (energy) rebate is very popular, but it was never going to turn it around completely, but it slowed the LNP juggernaut a bit.”
Dr Hannah said the LNP campaign response had also shifted traditional dynamics of how the party would normally act during an election cycle.
He compared the LNP strategy of focusing on crime prevention to the “local led” strategy used by the Albanese government during the 2022 election.
“We’re only at the official start of the campaign but we’ve been in campaign mode for some time now,” Dr Hannah said.
“The LNP have been focusing on a small number of issues which they feel like is good turf for them; crime and community safety, law and order is safe for them.
“But with cost of living, what they seem to be doing is that they’re ready to match the government policies.
“Take the 50c fares, it’s not the policy that you normally see from a Liberal government, but this will neutralise any of the effect from the government’s cost-of-living measures.
“Aside from maybe potentially crime and law and order, voters are not necessarily moving towards to the LNP because they see a distinction.
“It’s perhaps frustration and time for a change.”
It comes as 51 per cent polled were dissatisfied with Miles as state leader, compared to the 41 per cent satisfied.
The Miles government also suffered a big scare in March, when it suffered big swings in the by-elections for two Labor heartland seats, including Ms Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala West.
Seats to keep an eye on
Meanwhile, Labor will be hoping to retain the seat of Redcliffe following long-serving MP and Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath’s decision to retire at this election.
Hoping to take her spot for Labor is former high school teacher Kass Hall, while the LNP’s Kerri-Anne Dooley has thrown her hat in the ring for the sixth time.
Grieving father and LNP candidate Russell Field is running for the seat of Capalaba against Labor’s incumbent Don Brown.
In 2021, Mr Field’s son, daughter-in-law and unborn grandchild died in a shocking Australia Day crash when they were struck by a stolen car.
.The 17-year-old driver in the crash was sentenced to six years in prison.
Mr Field’s decision to run for parliament stems from his disapproval of the Labor government’s stance on youth crime.
In a social media ad, Mr Field said he was “sick of excuses” from Labor.
The government enters caretaker mode on Tuesday, when the election campaign officially starts.
To win majority, the ALP or LNP needs to win 47 seats in the 93-seat parliament. Currently, Labor has 51, the LNP 35, Katter’s Australia Party four, the Greens two, with one independent.
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