Bernie Sanders’ rivals are finally attacking him – but is it already too late?
The last 48 hours have brought a dramatic shift in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, as the party descends into panic.
There has been an unmistakeable shift in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in the last 48 hours.
Bernie Sanders’ most formidable rivals have finally launched a focused, sustained effort to take him down. But it might already be too late to stop his momentum.
Mr Sanders’ dominant win in the Nevada caucuses two days ago confirmed his position as the overwhelming favourite for the nomination. He more than doubled the vote share of his nearest competitor, former vice president Joe Biden.
RELATED: Sanders seizes control with massive win in Nevada
According to Politico, the scale of that victory “sent already worried Democrats” from the party’s more moderate wing “into a full-blown panic”.
“It’s this incredible sense that we’re hurtling to the abyss,” said veteran operative Matt Bennett, who revealed he was inundated with texts, calls and emails from colleagues worried by the Nevada result.
Their concern is that Mr Sanders, a left-wing senator who describes himself as a “democratic socialist”, will lose to President Donald Trump in November’s general election, should he become the Democratic nominee.
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Mr Sanders would obviously dispute that assessment.
Meanwhile, his fellow candidates are worried about a more immediate threat – the risk that he’s about to run away with the nomination.
THE STATE OF THE RACE
Before we go further, let’s quickly touch on how the primary process works.
Over a period of a few months, every American state votes for its preferred presidential nominee. Candidates who perform well are awarded delegates to the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for July.
That convention is where the delegates – not the voters – will officially choose the party’s nominee.
If anyone goes to the convention with a majority of the delegates already pledged to support them, it will be a simple coronation. That is what usually ends up happening.
Should every candidate fall short of a majority, however, things will get messy.
So, where do things stand at the moment?
Three states have voted so far. Mr Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa, won New Hampshire and easily won Nevada. He’s also in serious contention to win South Carolina, which votes on Sunday, Australian time.
Relatively few delegates have been awarded. Mr Sanders has won 45, ahead of Pete Buttigieg with 25. They need 1991 for a majority.
But things will change drastically on Super Tuesday – March 4, Australian time – when 14 states vote at once, awarding a whole third of the delegates on offer.
Which brings us back to the panic among Democratic moderates.
Mr Sanders is leading national polls, and he has all the momentum. Unless something changes, he will rack up a huge number of delegates on Super Tuesday, making him virtually impossible to stop.
FINALLY GANGING UP
Mr Sanders’ closest rivals have spent months attacking each other, and largely ignoring him.
We wrote about this at some length before the New Hampshire primary two weeks ago. Mr Sanders was the overwhelming favourite to win the state, and yet his opponents focused their fire on former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg instead.
Mr Sanders ended up winning New Hampshire by a surprisingly narrow margin, with Mr Buttigieg in second.
Afterwards, Mr Sanders’ campaign admitted the other candidates’ attacks on Mr Buttigieg, particularly at the New Hampshire debate, had been the decisive factor.
RELATED: History repeats as Democrats ignore frontrunner Bernie Sanders
RELATED: Sanders squeaks out narrow win in New Hampshire
The same thing happened in Nevada. Polls showed Mr Sanders way ahead of everyone else, but at last week’s debate, he was barely targeted.
This time the punching bag was former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, who got thoroughly eviscerated – particularly by Elizabeth Warren – in his debut on stage.
You know what happened next. Mr Sanders won Nevada, and this time it wasn’t close.
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Now, with five days to go until the primary in South Carolina, the other candidates are finally ganging up on the frontrunner.
Mr Buttigieg changed his tone quite abruptly on the same night as the Nevada results, explicitly arguing Mr Sanders was a poor choice to go up against Mr Trump and warning the party against “rushing” to nominate him.
“I congratulate Senator Sanders on a strong showing today, knowing that we share many of the same ideals,” he said.
“But before we rush to nominate Senator Sanders, let us take a sober look at what is at stake, for our party, our values and those with the most to lose.
“We absolutely must defeat Donald Trump and everything that he represents in November.
“We share these ideals, but I believe the best way to defeat Donald Trump is to broaden and galvanise the majority that supports us.”
Mr Buttigieg said Mr Sanders would “go beyond reform” and instead “reorder the economy” in a way most of the country would not support.
Mr Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire, has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads spruiking his own record as mayor and ridiculing Mr Trump.
CNBC reports he is now planning to shift his strategy and unleash a deluge of negative ads against Mr Sanders.
In fact, it has already begun. Today the Bloomberg campaign posted a biting ad online attacking Mr Sanders’ record on gun control, and accusing him of being beholden to the National Rifle Association.
Given Mr Bloomberg has virtually limitless wealth, he can make and then air as many of these ads as he likes in the coming weeks. Soon the airwaves will be flooded with them.
The NRA paved the road to Washington for Bernie Sanders.
— Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) February 24, 2020
He spent the next three decades making sure they got a return on their investment.
We deserve a president who is not beholden to the gun lobby.#NotMeNRA pic.twitter.com/HLYZe4J5PM
Finally, the rest of the Democratic field has noticeably started to focus more on Mr Sanders’ more controversial opinions.
Mr Sanders took a lot of heat today over comments he made about the former dictator of Cuba, Fidel Castro.
“We’re very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba, but you know, it’s unfair to simply say everything is bad,” Mr Sanders told 60 Minutes.
“You know, when Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing, even though Fidel Castro did it?”
Mr Bloomberg, Mr Buttigieg and Mr Biden all pounced on the comment, accusing Mr Sanders of minimising the crimes of left-wing authoritarian governments.
“Bernie Sanders’ comments on Fidel Castro are a part of a larger pattern throughout his life to embrace autocratic leaders and governments across the globe. He seems to have found more inspiration in the Soviets, Sandinistas, Chavistas and Castro than in America,” senior Biden adviser Cristobal Alex said in a statement.
“His admiration for elements of Castro’s dictatorship, or at least willingness to look past Cuba’s human rights violations is not just dangerous, it is deeply offensive to the many people in Florida, New Jersey and across the country that have fled political persecution and sought refuge in the United States.
“Bernie’s comments indicate he either fails to understand the pain and suffering that Fidel Castro, Nicolas Maduro and Daniel Ortega have caused to so many people, including Americans now living here, or worse, that his ideology blinds him to the realities of life in these countries.
“We already have one President who praises dictators and their mob-like tendencies. We don’t need another one.”
The other campaigns responded on Twitter.
Fidel Castro left a dark legacy of forced labor camps, religious repression, widespread poverty, firing squads, and the murder of thousands of his own people.
— Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) February 24, 2020
But sure, Bernie, let’s talk about his literacy program. pic.twitter.com/3Xqu435uoA
After four years of looking on in horror as Trump cozied up to dictators, we need a president who will be extremely clear in standing against regimes that violate human rights abroad. We can't risk nominating someone who doesn't recognize this. pic.twitter.com/N2JHGzns93
— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) February 24, 2020
Some Democrats worry Mr Sanders’ opinions will be a problem in the key swing state of Florida, which has a large and politically active population of Cuban Americans whose families fled the Castro regime.
“I’m hoping that in the future, Senator Sanders will take time to speak to some of my constituents before he decides to sing the praises of a murderous tyrant like Fidel Castro,” said Congresswoman Donna Shalala, for example.
“Saying a murderous dictator wasn’t so bad because of a literacy program is like saying ‘there were very fine people on both sides’,” said Florida state Senator Annette Taddeo, comparing Mr Sanders’ stance to Mr Trump’s after Charlottesville.
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OTHER NAGGING CONCERNS
Mr Sanders has several other potential weaknesses his rivals are seeking to exploit.
There is the self-bestowed “democratic socialist” label, which Mr Trump would be sure to hammer during the general election campaign. A new poll this week found just 28 per cent of American adults had a favourable view of socialism, compared to 58 who had a negative view of it. That’s in line with other data on the subject.
Of course, polls also show Mr Sanders comfortably ahead of Mr Trump in a head-to-head match-up. He performs almost as well as Mr Biden, and better than the other candidates.
We should note that last time we did this, in 2016, the same polls showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by more than 10 per cent in mid-March.
Ms Clinton did end up winning the popular vote, but by a much narrower margin.
Elections are unpredictable, and no one really knows how one between Mr Sanders and Mr Trump would play out.
On policy matters, Mr Biden, Mr Bloomberg and Mr Buttigieg have all argued Mr Sanders’ “Medicare for All” scheme – which would end private health insurance and put every American on a public plan – risks alienating voters.
And Mr Biden in particular has questioned how Mr Sanders will pay for his enormous increase in government spending.
That subject also came up during Mr Sanders’ 60 Minutes interview.
“Do you have a price tag for all of this?” interviewer Anderson Cooper asked, referring to Mr Sanders’ entire suite of policies.
“We do. I mean, you know, and the price tag is – it will be substantially less than letting the current system go. I think it’s about $30 trillion,” Mr Sanders said.
That appeared to be an attempt to dodge the question. Mr Sanders was only talking about the cost of his Medicare for All plan, whereas Cooper was asking for the price of all his proposals. The anchor quickly followed up.
“Do you have a price tag for all of these things?” he asked.
“No, I don’t. We try to – you mentioned making public colleges and universities tuition free and cancelling all student debt. That’s correct. That’s what I want to do. We pay for that through a modest tax on Wall Street speculation,” said Mr Sanders.
Again, he was trying to turn away from the broader question by focusing on a specific policy. So Cooper tried once more.
“You say you don’t know what the total price is, but you know how it’s going to be paid for. How do you know it’s going to be paid for if you don’t know how much the price is?” he pressed.
“Well I can’t, you know, I can’t rattle off to you every nickel and every dime. But we have accounted for – you talked about Medicare for All. We have options out there that will pay for it,” Mr Sanders said.
The unknown total cost of his policies could pave the way for a formidable scare campaign from Mr Trump.
Anderson Cooper: "Do you have a price tag for all of these things?"
— Edward Hardy (@EdwardTHardy) February 24, 2020
Bernie Sanders: "No, I don't. No"
AC: "How do you know it’s going to be paid for if you don’t know what the price is?"
BS: "I can't rattle off for you every nickel and every dime" pic.twitter.com/C55G8rj3Xg
STILL ON THE SIDELINES
Despite the clear shift in recent days, not everyone is on board with the “stop Bernie” movement.
Asked about the risks associated with nominating Mr Sanders yesterday, Ms Warren refused to bite, immediately pivoting back to attacking Mr Bloomberg.
“I think Michael Bloomberg is the riskiest candidate,” she said.
When another reporter interjected to point out the question was about Mr Sanders, she simply replied, “I heard you,” before continuing.
Elsewhere, the biggest names in the Democratic Party – the Obamas and the Clintons, for example – have refrained from interfering in the race.
That is particularly noteworthy because Mr Biden served as Mr Obama’s vice president for eight years.
“Basically every major Democrat who a normal primary voter would know and whose endorsement could command a news cycle is sitting around to see how things shake out,” Tim Miller, who served as communications director for Jeb Bush’s failed presidential campaign four years ago, wrote last week.
“And I promise you that every one of them who is right now weighing when to put their thumb on the scale will quickly decide after Super Tuesday that they don’t want to be fighting a lonely battle against an inevitable Bernie.”
Mr Obama has stayed silent for most of the primary campaign, despite reports late last year that he would consider speaking out if Mr Sanders’ looked like becoming the nominee.
“The average American doesn’t think we have to completely tear down the system and remake it,” the former president said in November, in comments widely interpreted as a subtle rebuke of Mr Sanders’ platform.
He has offered no criticism of the Democratic frontrunner since then.
The party establishment might be freaking out behind the scenes, but at least for now, its most powerful figure is still watching – and waiting.
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