Home price shock: You’ll need to earn $180k to buy in 2026
Homehunters looking to buy in Brisbane in the next year will need a $13,000 pay rise to keep up with property price growth. FIND YOUR SUBURB.
Homehunters looking to buy in Brisbane in the next year will need a $13,000 pay rise to keep up with property price growth in the lead-up to the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
The shock modelling of forecasts from SQM Research by Finder.com.au reveals households will need to earn an annual income of $180,732 to afford an average home at the start of 2026 if prices rise at the forecast rate — that jumps to $633,000 in some suburbs.
It comes hot on the heels of the Queensland Premier announcing the venue and infrastructure blueprint for the Games, with experts predicting significant price rises in surrounding suburbs such as Bowen Hills, Kelvin Grove, Herston, Fortitude Valley, and Woolloongabba.
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The data reveals the current average annual household income of $167,351 would need to increase $13,381 by the start of 2026 to afford a median priced dwelling in Brisbane, with predictions of a 14 per cent rise in home prices between the start of 2025 and then.
In Adelaide, the average increase in income needed is nearly $11,000, but it’s a different story for Sydney and Melbourne, where the property analytics firm predicts income requirements to buy a home will actually drop next year.
Separate price growth predictions from PRD reveal how much house prices in suburbs close to Olympic venues and infrastructure could increase by in 2026.
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The research forecasts price growth of 16 per cent in Fortitude Valley, 14 per cent in Bowen Hills, and 13.5 per cent in Chandler, meaning even higher incomes could be needed to afford a home in these suburbs by next year.
Going by these predictions, aspiring homeowners would need to earn an extra $45,500 to buy a house in Fortitude Valley ($510,900) in 2026, $32,000 more in Bowen Hills ($441,800), and $44,000 more in Chandler ($633,696).
HOW MUCH YOU NEED TO EARN TO AFFORD TO BUY IN 2026
| How much you'd need to earn at start of 2025 (gross annual household income) | How much you'll need at start of 2026 (gross annual household income) | Increase from start of 2025 | |
| Herston (4006) | $263,728.93 | $267,974.74 | $4,245.81 |
| Kelvin Grove (4059) | $257,911.38 | $263,160.56 | $5,249.18 |
| Fortitude Valley (4006) | $465,404.00 | $510,912.84 | $45,508.85 |
| Bowen Hills (4006) | $409,167.68 | $441,861.70 | $32,694.02 |
| Woolloongabba (4102) | $255,972.20 | $261,549.28 | $5,577.08 |
| Kangaroo Point (4169) | $319,965.25 | $330,929.99 | $10,964.74 |
| East Brisbane (4169) | $279,242.40 | $285,112.42 | $5,870.02 |
| Tennyson (4105) | $209,431.80 | $217,180.78 | $7,748.99 |
| Belmont (4153) | $246,276.28 | $251,167.91 | $4,891.63 |
| Chandler (4155) | $589,511.73 | $633,696.85 | $44,185.13 |
| Boondall (4034) | $174,526.50 | $178,875.29 | $4,348.80 |
| Cairns Regional Council | $126,434.75 | $126,360.39 | -$74.37 |
| Rockhampton Regional Council | $93,080.80 | $92,732.22 | -$348.58 |
| Sunshine Coast Regional Council | $207,492.61 | $213,272.82 | $5,780.21 |
| Moreton Bay City Council | $160,952.22 | $164,065.89 | $3,113.68 |
| Redland City Council | $176,465.68 | $178,829.74 | $2,364.05 |
| Toowoomba Regional Council | $125,853.00 | $127,005.74 | $1,152.75 |
| Brisbane City Council | $242,397.91 | $248,410.13 | $6,012.21 |
| Logan City Council | $149,317.12 | $152,495.58 | $3,178.47 |
| Gold Coast City Council | $228,823.63 | $235,686.15 | $6,862.52 |
Source: PRD and Finder.com.au
Finder.com.au insights manager Graham Cooke said the extra annual income needed to keep pace with average price rises in Brisbane would push more would-be homebuyers out of the market.
Most aspiring homeowners would probably not pocket that kind of pay increase and would be watching prices rise at a much faster rate than their wages, Mr Cooke said.
“Needing to earn that much more in a single year will make buying a home even more of a struggle,” Mr Cooke said. “It’s already a challenge and this will make it even more so.
“It’s already impossible in most places to buy a house on a single income. The (notion) of one job being enough to get into the market is long gone, unless it’s an apartment.”
Mr Cooke said the benefits of small cuts in interest rates would be mitigated by rises in prices.
“As long as the increases in prices remain bigger than wage increases property will continue to get more unaffordable, even if buyers get a little bit of rate relief,” he said.
PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo said the projected increase in property prices — particularly around Olympic infrastructure in Brisbane — would price many people out of the house market.
“Local Brisbane wage growth will struggle to keep up with the price growth,” Dr Mardiasmo said.
“Already, most of these places are considered a premium market. For example, Herston, with a median house price of $1.3m and Greater Brisbane at just under $1m, which means that it is already considered not the most affordable option.
“What we may see is an increase in interstate and international buyers who view million-dollar prices as something more affordable relative to their original hometown.
“Brisbane local buyers may then need to look at units, as opposed to houses, to get their foot in the market in these areas.”
From an investment perspective, Dr Mardiasmo said history showed it would be wise to buy in some of these suburbs now.
“There is merit looking into these areas now, not only before prices go up further (as it historically has done for other key Olympics suburbs), but also because new stock may be limited in the near future,” she said.
“We know it takes time to build, and with the added infrastructure projects taking up more of our construction industry, plus Brisbane’s new dwelling costs rising in the past three months, new residential builds may be delayed longer than anticipated.”
But not everyone is predicting such strong growth in home prices in Brisbane.
More restrained forecasting from KPMG reveals a $5400 pay increase will be needed to keep up with the pace of house price growth in Brisbane by the end of 2026, and about $2200 more a year to keep pace with projected moves in the apartment market.
Finder.com.au used median price and interest rate data modelled on two different independent property forecasts from SQM Research and KPMG to determine what one would need to earn to keep up with the market.
This modelling was compared with how much money one would need to earn annually to purchase a home at median prices recorded in January without going into mortgage stress.
Both KPMG and SQM Research hinged their annual forecasts on the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2025 and the salary analysis factored in two 0.25 per cent interest rate cuts over the year.
The analysis assumed a 30-year mortgage with a 20 per cent deposit. Income requirements for the start of 2025 were modelled with the average 6.1 per cent interest rate. The 2026 figures were calculated with a 5.6 per cent rate.
Property was deemed “affordable” if the repayments were no more than 30 per cent of gross annual income.
Place Estate Agents CEO Damian Hackett said the Brisbane 2032 Games would result in billions of dollars being invested into key areas of the city, which were predicted to increase property values and attract long-term growth.
Mr Hackett identified eight inner city suburbs to see “strong growth over the next seven to 10 years”, including Herston, Kelvin Grove, Spring Hill, Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Woolloongabba, East Brisbane and Kangaroo Point.
“These infrastructure developments will enhance connectivity across Brisbane, creating prime residential opportunities that will transform the city’s real estate landscape,” he said.
Also predicted to surge in price as a result of their proximity to Olympic infrastructure are Tennyson, Boondall, Belmont and parts of the Redlands.
Several regional areas are also in line to see prices lift including parts of the Gold Coast, Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, lower Sunshine Coast like Maroochydore, the Whitsundays, Rockhampton and Maryborough.
Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO Antonia Mercorella said the announcement of the new venues and accompanying infrastructure would “significantly enhance the liveability and connectivity of Brisbane and are likely to create long-term lifts in real estate values”, especially in inner-city suburbs.
“The announcement of this plan marks a turning point, sparking renewed optimism and excitement in Queensland and Brisbane as an Olympic host city, and we expect this momentum will be reflected in growing interest in our local real estate market,” she said.
Originally published as Home price shock: You’ll need to earn $180k to buy in 2026
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