Expert reveals five lessons from the ‘weirdest North Korea crisis yet’

THE never-ending crisis with North Korea could lead to a $10 trillion catastrophe. Here are five ways we can solve the problems with Kim Jong-un.

INTERNATIONAL relations expert Robert Kelly is probably most famous for the time his adorable kids crashed his Skype interview with the BBC.

However, he also knows an incredible amount about politics.

Professor Kelly is an American who has been based in South Korea for the past decade, and he said he’s never seen a North Korean crisis like the one the world is currently experiencing.

In an article written for the Lowy Institute, he said historically crises surrounding the rogue state have followed a predictable pattern.

First, he said, the North provokes someone, then the UN Security Council applies sanctions, then there’s a “demoralisingly head-in-the-sand call from China for ‘calm’ on all sides”, then North Korea unleashes propaganda about aggression against its sovereignty, then the Western media falls into hysteria about imminent war.

Rinse, and repeat.

However, that’s no longer the case.

In fact, he’s labelled this the “weirdest ever North Korean crisis” — and he said there’s five lessons the West can take away.

1. US LEADERSHIP IS THE DEFINING VARIABLE

There’s a huge difference between Donald Trump and his predecessor, Barack Obama. Picture: Mandel Ngan

It’s perhaps unsurprising that Prof Kelly begins by resolutely pointing the finger at US President Donald Trump.

“Usually US presidents have been admirably responsible in dealing with North Korea given how dangerous it is,” he wrote for The Interpreter.

“But Trump, with his own KCNA-style rhetoric, is adding a whole new variable, or rather, activating one we never really thought to consider before.”

Even former president Barack Obama, who is currently attending a forum in Brazil, told the Associated Press on Wednesday that diplomacy, rather than military might, was the best way to deal with North Korea’s threats.

Prof Kelly noted it’s very difficult to explain Mr Trump’s belligerence, particularly through his notoriously aggressive Twitter account.

He said it’s possible the president is trying to divert attention away from domestic challenges; he could be genuinely trying to bait Kim Jong-un; or perhaps he’s mentally overwhelmed by the responsibilities of his office.

“Whatever your choice, the recklessness of Trump’s nuclear threats is astonishing. It is no longer an exaggeration to say that the biggest variable in this crisis going forward is Trump’s own psychology.”

2. NORTH KOREA HAS INSULTS FOR DAYS

Kim Jong-un schooled everyone when he labelled Donald Trump a “dotard”. Picture: KCNA

North Korea’s propaganda department is well-versed in over-the-top commentary, which is why experts have discouraged Mr Trump from engaging in a war of words.

“Most knew it would turn into an undignified food fight,” said Prof Kelly.

He said Trump cannot win, as North Korea isn’t restrained by the diplomatic niceties most countries prefer — for example, it called Barack Obama a “monkey”, and the female former South Korean president a “prostitute”.

Kim Jong-un has already come out swinging, mocking Donald Trump with a slapdown that labelled him a “dotard”.

(If you’re like me, and you had to quickly Google that, it means “an old person, especially one who has become weak or senile”.)

“This would all be childish and irrelevant, except that psychology, like Trump or Kim’s own anger, paranoia, anxiety, and so on, is increasingly driving this contest.”

3. WESTERN MEDIA IS PLAYING WITH FIRE

Interesting, Prof Kelly observes South Korean media coverage is far less alarming than the commentary coming from Western countries.

“I also continue to notice the large gap between Korea experts brought onto the networks and the networks’ own in-house panels of generalist journalists and commentators. The latter are almost always more alarmist and hawkish than the former, who almost uniformly seem to think this crisis need not tip into a conflict,” he said.

“The run-up to the Iraq War similarly failed to tap the expert community deeply enough, and this crisis involves nuclear weapons.”

4. CHINA IS THE ANSWER

Regardless of how “great” Trump makes America, he cannot win without China. Picture: Saul Loeb

According to Prof Kelly, China holds the key to a peaceful resolution.

“Probably the smartest thing Trump has done on North Korea to date is push China hard. Yes, it has not worked out well, but the alternatives are all so poor, I find all the criticism of this track curious,” he said.

China’s economic leverage is well established, because it controls North Korea’s oil and buys 92 per cent of its exports.

Prof Kelly things it provides an avenue vastly preferable to a military option — which could spiral into regional conflict — or more unproductive talks.

“The North Koreans will demand huge concessions now. They have nuclear weapons and have endured months of Trump’s taunts,” he explained.

“They will ask for so much, that the South and the US will almost certainly demur.

“I see little alternative beyond going back to the Chinese yet again.”

5. SOUTH KOREA CAN’T BE SIDELINED

“Trump may not be able to help make all events about himself but his shenanigans are nonetheless pushing South Korea out of the loop,” he wrote.

He said that’s “obviously bad all around” as South Korea has a lot to lose.

Aside from being directly in North Korea’s firing line, South Korea would be charged with cleaning up the mess should the conflict descend into war.

Some experts predict reunification could be a $10 trillion economic catastrophe, which could drag the technology powerhouse back into the third world.

“Support for unification has declined over the years, and anxiety over its costs is high. North Korea’s weirdness and backwardness is deeply off-putting for a country that wants to join the modern world,” said Prof Kelly.

If nuclear weapons are used, the could also inherit a radioactive wasteland.

There’s clearly no easy way out — but Prof Kelly believes everything Trump says and does is simply making it worse.

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