Census 2021: Big issue facing this year’s survey
The last Census has been characterised as a “cluster bomb of disaster” but some very difficult issues are also set to face next week’s Census.
It’s Census day on Tuesday August 10 – the first since the infamous “Census fail” of 2016 when millions of Australians went online to fill out the survey, only to find the website had crashed.
A demographer has told news.com.au that the 2016 episode was a “cluster bomb of disaster” but she is confident the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has learned its lesson and the census was now “pandemic proof”.
Over the coming days every household should receive a letter from the ABS with a unique password allowing them to log into the Census website. You can be fined for not filling in the Census.
But even if the website doesn’t crash this year, there is another huge issue facing the ABS: just how useful the data it gathers will actually be.
Census 2021 conducted during huge lockdowns
The Census is designed to be a snapshot of a single, average day in Australia. That data helps to inform many decisions for the next five years including governmental funding.
However, Tuesday will be no average day in Australia. It’s likely 60 per cent of the nation will be in a very abnormal situation hunkering in lockdown.
While that won’t affect questions on religion, population size, education and the like, it will make a very big difference in some other key areas.
A number of countries have cancelled their census due to pandemic concerns.
“The suite of information that will likely see the greatest impact due to the pandemic will be employment, hours worked, income and journey to work,” said Australian National University demographer Dr Liz Allen.
For instance, the 2016 Census asked people the address of where they went to work that day and if they get there by walking, driving or public transport.
“Information about where people work and how they get to work helps to inform the policy and planning of road infrastructure and public transportation,” the ABS stated in 2016.
“This helps ensure public services are available where people are most likely to access them during the day.”
RELATED: Everything you need to know about Census 2021
The 2016 Census found of those who used one method of transport to get to work, car was king with 81 per cent of journeys, and buses, trams and trains were used by 11 per cent. Of those who used two modes, 27 per cent went by car and train.
However at least in Victoria, southeast Queensland, Greater Sydney and Newcastle, it’s likely the vast majority of people on Census day won’t have travelled anywhere to get to work except maybe from the kitchen to the spare room.
That won’t give useful data in planning what new roads or rail lines are needed in the future.
Hours worked by individuals also won’t be helpful if someone working in hospitality has had their roster temporarily cut due to a one week lockdown. And few, if any, tourists or foreign students will be filling out the Census, meaning that data will be absent too.
Census occurring in ‘unusual circumstances’
The ABS told news.com.au that censuses had been conducted under unusual circumstances before, “including during the Spanish flu, immediately post the Great Depression and World War Two”.
“The Census does provide a snapshot of Australia at a point in time and life in Australia in August 2021 which is quite different to life at the time of the last Census in 2016,” a spokeswoman said.
“When releasing the data, it will be accompanied by data usage notes to assist users understand potential Covid-19 related impacts on the data.”
Dr Allen said other statistics might have to be drawn upon to get a more accurate information in some areas.
“Transportation data is valuable particularly at suburb and street level but there are other means to achieve information around travel to work,” she said.
RELATED: Census slammed for excluding important group
Census could provide unique Covid snapshot
Yet the holes in the Census data might be balanced out by the fact that more people will fill it in, according to Dr Allen.
“The risk of people being away from home drives up the potential for under or over counts on Census night,” she said.
“But a large proportion of Australians will be in lockdown this year and as a result more people (will fill it in) so that actually increases the accuracy.”
And while the Census snapshot won’t be an entirely accurate one of Australia in normal times, Dr Allen said that could actually be a bonus.
“A strength of this Census is how we can evaluate the impacts of Covid in Australia on employment, hours worked, income and even housing,” she said.
“That data is crucial to then informing the future – where are the needs, where are the greater impacts and by doing that I’m hopeful we can narrow the gap of inequality we’ve seen in New South Wales particularly as Covid transmission has followed inequality.”
RELATED: Census answer that can trigger $2200 fine
Census 2016 a ‘cluster bomb of disaster’
The shadow hanging over Census 2021 is the omnishambles that was Census 2016.
The website was hit by “denial of service” attacks at least three times that prevented many people from filling out the legally required document. The website was then shut down for 48 hours. The ABS later blamed the bungle on tech firm IBM.
However, Dr Allen said the incident, dubbed “Census fail”, had led the ABS to be better prepared this year.
“It was such a cluster bomb of disaster that there was an inquiry and that made a range of recommendations,” she said.
“It’s serendipitous because the Census fail led to the ABS putting in a range of improvements and safeguards and we now have a pandemic-proof Census.”
Dr Allen said those “pandemic proof” changes were a more robust online system and fewer ABS staff on the street potentially exposing themselves or others to Covid.
Households can also complete the Census at any time after receiving their letter which should spread out the load on the ABS website.
The form can be filled in prior to Tuesday August 10 if it’s known who will be at home on that day.
However, it should be filled in by Tuesday.
If it’s not, ABS staff will still come knocking. The pandemic won’t change that.
Aussie workers who fear AI the most
The Australian workers most concerned about artificial intelligence have been revealed in a new global survey.
‘It’s on’: Major bank expects Feb rate cut
In welcome news for mortgage holders, a third major bank is now expecting a rate cut in February following lower-than-expected inflation data.
Aussie economy’s major breakthrough
Australia’s economy might be hitting a turning point on the back of better household spending – but economists are warning more work needs to be done.