‘We will hit them very hard’: Trump’s controversial plan for drug cartels smuggling narcotics
In a shocking new promise, Donald Trump has shared exactly how he plans to take down drug cartels from Venezuela and Colombia.
ANALYSIS
Special forces troops. Stealth fighters. Guided missile destroyers. Are the US forces massing off the coast of Venezuela there for a war on drugs? Or regime change?
“We have the greatest military in the world,” US President Donald Trump boasted to reporters Thursday, Australian time.
“We have the greatest weapons in the world, and you see a little bit of it there; One shot, everyone dead centre,” he added, pointing to video footage of an air strike against an alleged narcotics-carrying speedboat.
“And the only way you won’t feel badly about it is if you realise that every time you see that happen, you’re saving 25,000 American lives. Every one of those boats that gets knocked out is saving 25,000 American lives.”
This claim is the crux of the Trump Administration’s argument: The drug crisis poses a threat to the United States’ civilian population. That makes it a national security crisis. And that gives the Commander in Chief unilateral powers to protect the nation.
His White House lieutenants are even less diplomatic.
US Vice President James Vance has declared he “doesn’t give a s**t” if such killings are a war crime. “Hell, I wouldn’t go fishing right now in that area of that world!”
“We also don’t fight with stupid rules of engagement,” added US Secretary of the Department of War Peter Hegseth. “We untie the hands of our warfighters to intimidate, demoralise, hunt and kill the enemies of our country. No more politically correct and overbearing rules of engagement, just common sense, maximum lethality and authority for warfighters.”
The heated rhetoric comes amid a large-scale build-up of US forces in the Caribbean.
Some 10,000 marines, including a dedicated special-forces deployment ship, are active.
The CIA has sent in its espionage agents. A squadron of F-35 Stealth Fighters with accompanying strike drones has been moved to a decommissioned Puerto Rico airfield. And an assembly of guided-missile cruisers and destroyers has been assigned to protect them.
President Trump refused to answer if his intention was to overthrow Venezuela’s illegitimate President, Nicolás Maduro, calling it “a ridiculous question for me to answer”.
But opposition leader (and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner) Maria Corina Machado is hopeful her appeals for help are finally being heeded.
And indications are a “decapitation strike” against Venezuela’s president is on the cards.
“If Trump is not careful, unilateral US military action in Venezuela could see the country collapse into chaos, potentially fuelling a Libya-style meltdown just a three-hour flight from Miami,” warns Atlantic Council think-tank analyst Geoff Ramsey.
Force posture
“We will hit them very hard when they come in by land. And they haven’t experienced that yet, but now we’re totally prepared to do that. We’ll probably go back to Congress and explain exactly what we’re doing when [they] come to the land,” President Trump said during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte this week.
It’s his first concession to US legislative war oversight.
The US military has been attacking boats it claims are ferrying drugs in the Caribbean Sea since early September. So far, at least eight boats have been hit, and more than 30 people have been killed.
“We have legal authority. We’re allowed to do that,” Trump added. “This is a national security problem. They killed 300,000 people last year. Drugs, these drugs coming in. They killed 300,000 Americans last year, and that gives you legal authority.”
Venezuela is not a major drug producer.
But it is a significant distribution centre, funnelling cocaine towards the US, Central America, Africa and Europe.
“I will say that there are very few boats travelling on the water right now,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “Actually, that includes fishing boats. That includes any other kind of boat. But there are very few boats travelling on the water. So now they’ll come in by land to a lesser extent, and they will be hit on land also.”
The extent of this “hit” is the subject of much speculation.
“There are not enough assets for an invasion,” Ambassador to Venezuela for the first Trump administration, James Story, told US media. “But there are enough ‘exquisite assets’ on site that could overwhelm the air defences of the country, take out the Air Force, take out the navy, potentially decapitate the government if that were a decision that he decided to take.”
President Trump earlier this month declared he has authorised CIA operatives to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela. A day later, US Navy Admiral Alvin Holsey – who was responsible for operations in Central and South America – suddenly retired.
Confusion surrounds the US military’s mission.
Is it targeted strikes against “narco-terrorists”? Or is it regime change?
“The US is at a turning point; Washington needs to decide what it wants,” says Ramsey. “The president came to office campaigning to end endless wars, but he’s found himself now championing what may be America’s longest war, which is the war on drugs.”
Above the law
President Trump declared drug cartels to be foreign terrorist organisations on the very first day of his second term in office. Then, in March, he proclaimed: “It’s time for America to wage war on the cartels”.
“These cartels are the al-Qaeda of the Western Hemisphere, using violence, murder and terrorism to impose their will, threaten our national security and poison our people,” Secretary of War Hegseth added.
War, however, is the opposite of law. And that comes with consequences.
“While most Americans might agree that the cartels represent a real threat and need to be dealt with, most will have little understanding of the costs and time required to fight the cartels,” warns a briefing from the Soufan Centre think tank.
“Nor are they likely to expect the potential for horizontal escalation that the cartels can undertake inside the United States.”
Venezuela may be the main talking point. But Colombia and Mexico are also in the Trump Administration’s sights.
President Trump earlier this month called Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro a “drug trafficking leader”.
President Petro responded, calling the boat attacks “murder” and declaring “the US government’s strategy breaks the norms of international law”.
But the likelihood of military action remains high.
“Further US strikes could target more alleged drug shipments, or they could include drug flights, many of which take off from clandestine airstrips along the Venezuelan-Colombian border,” says Ramsey.
And that could lead to violent retaliation.
The international drug cartels are well-positioned to turn their heavily armed drug distribution networks within the US into active terror cells. And any such violence would likely further motivate Trump to follow through with his threat to use the Insurrection Act to impose martial law on major Democrat-held cities.
Meanwhile, the role of the US as a bastion of international law is being denigrated, says Harvard Professor of International Law Michael Schmitt.
“The lethal operations against suspected cartel-affiliated individuals to date stretch applicable international law beyond recognition, whereas consensual law enforcement operations to counter illicit drug trafficking activity are solidly grounded in law,” he argues.
At the heart of the problem is the lack of legal due process.
No evidence has been presented to suggest that those killed in the boat strikes were guilty drug smugglers or innocent fishers.
And guilty until proven innocent is a problematic position for the dead.
“This is not legally complicated,” Professor Schmitt adds. “The proper approach to the threat posed by transnational drug trafficking is consent-based cooperative law enforcement.
“But what I can say with confidence is that the United States is violating international law by continuing to conduct these operations.”
Regime change
“President Maduro’s illegal regime will not co-operate with the United States in any effort to reduce gang or cartel activity on Venezuelan soil,” the Soufan Centre concedes. “He has proven resilient in the face of longstanding American sanctions. When it comes to financial and physical isolation, the situation may have reached a place where the law of diminishing returns is in play.”
The global “war on drugs” has been fighting a losing battle for more than half a century.
Widespread corruption and the civilian nature of its highly distributed criminal network have successfully stymied law enforcement efforts.
Venezuelan President Maduro has become a symbol of that failed campaign.
Now President Trump has put a bounty on Maduro’s head. He’s offering $US50 million for information leading to an arrest.
Maduro’s been accused of leading the Venezuelan drug distribution network, Cartel de los Soles.
Under the Trump Administration’s logic, this makes the President the leader of a terrorist group.
And therefore a legitimate target.
Ramsay says there are several possible scenarios for the coming weeks and months.
One involves the US assisting an opposition-led civilian uprising or a coup from within the Venezuelan military. “(Opposition leader) Machado herself has called for security forces to engage in a campaign of ‘disobedience’ against Maduro in recognition of the opposition’s election win,” Ramsay explains.
This, he adds, is unlikely.
Another involves direct US military action. This could entail “decapitation strikes” on Venezuelan leaders, destruction of its military assets, and “perhaps even tasking special forces with apprehending Maduro to bring him to justice,” Ramsay adds.
This, however, may not be as easy as it sounds.
Venezuela has a balanced air-defence network. How effective it is remains to be seen.
“Direct, open conflict with the Venezuelan military would be risky,” Ramsay warns. “It could devolve into a chain of violence that could last for years and potentially spill over into neighbouring countries.”
And if President Trump gets his man?
Venezuela’s troubles stem from a long struggle for power between drug cartels, oil-rich family clans and its long-suffering populace. It extends far beyond one political figurehead.
“Even if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is overthrown, there would be a panoply of armed actors vying for control of the spoils — remnants of Venezuela’s military, Colombian guerillas, paramilitary gangs, and other violent non-state actors,” the Soufan Centre warns.
“Therefore, the best course of action against Tren de Aragua and other Venezuelan gangs and cartels is increased multinational air, land, and sea law-enforcement action. That will be a dissatisfying approach to some, but it remains the most logical, practical, legal, ethical, and moral way to address this problem.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @jamieseidel.bsky.social
Originally published as ‘We will hit them very hard’: Trump’s controversial plan for drug cartels smuggling narcotics
