The Punt: your ultimate ticket to winning big this weekend with TAB

NOT often this season has St Kilda been the banker for the round but they do appear to have the edge over the struggling Blues in their Friday night mockbuster. But does $1.35 seem value?

NOT often this season has St Kilda been the banker for the round but they do appear to have the edge over the struggling Blues in their Friday night mockbuster.

The rebounding Saints are $1.35 with TAB to register their fourth win of the season against the bottom-placed Blues.

ST KILDA ($1.35) V CARLTON ($3.25)

ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 7.50PM

St Kilda has won the past three matches against Carlton with Tim Membrey kicking 11.4 in those games.

The last time the teams played Jack Billings produced the best match of his career, amassing 30 disposals, 12 marks and five goals straight to become just third Saint behind Leigh Montagna in 2010 and Darrel Baldock in 1965 to kick five goals and have 30 possessions in same game.

For the Blues, Patrick Cripps averages 30 touches, including 19 contested, seven tackles, eight clearances and a goal in his four matches against the Saints.

Carlton is the $1.35 favourite to have the most losses this season after their defeat at the hands of Brisbane last week.

Check out all the odds on the big AFL matches this weekend and across the sporting landscape both nationally and overseas in the latest edition of The Punt betting guide.

THE EARLY OIL: CAULFIELD

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

Tim Membrey has been in stunning form in recent weeks. Picture: AAP

GWS ($2.60) V RICHMOND ($1.50)

SPOTLESS STADIUM, SATURDAY, 7.25PM

RICHMOND as favourite this season is the AFL’s equivalent of the West Indies playing at home during the 1980s — they are unbeatable.

The Tigers are still yet to be involved in an upset in 2018 and they remain on track to become just the second team since 1995, alongside GWS in 2013, that TAB bookmakers correctly picked the result for in every match of the season.

The Tigers are now $2.75 to win the premiership which is only the fifth time a team has been that short to the flag after round 16 in the past 11 seasons.

Geelong were $1.70 in 2008, the Cats were $2.40 in 2009, despite St Kilda being unbeaten at that stage, Collingwood was $2 in 2011 and Hawthorn were $2 in 2015.

Richmond lost its last match at Spotless Stadium, in round nine last season, despite leading by 25 points at three quarter time with Jeremy Cameron kicking a heartbreaking goal for Tigers fans in the last minute.

PREMIERSHIP FAVOURITES AFTER ROUND 16

2007 — Geelong $2.90 — Premiership

2008 — Geelong $1.70 — Runners Up

2009 — Geelong $2.40 — Premiership

2010 — Geelong $3 — Third

2011 — Collingwood $2 — Runners Up

2012 — Hawthorn $3.25 — Runners Up

2013 — Geelong and Hawthorn $3.50 — Third and Premiership

2014 — Sydney $3.25 — Runners Up

2015 — Hawthorn $2 — Premiership

2016 — Geelong $3.75 — Third

2017 — Adelaide $3.75 — Runners Up

UPSETS INVOLVING EACH TEAM THIS SEASON

8: Essendon

7: Geelong

6: Hawthorn, Sydney

5: Port Adelaide, Adelaide, North Melbourne

4: Melbourne, Fremantle

3: GWS, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane

2: Gold Coast, Carlton, Collingwood, St Kilda

1:

0: Richmond

THE PUNT SPECIAL

FIFA World Cup final to go into extra time: $3.50

Rillito is TAB tipster Nick Quinn’s best bet at Caulfield.

NICK QUINN’S BEST BETS

HORSE RACING

RILLITO ($1.95)

Race 5, Number 3

Caulfield, Saturday, 2.10pm

Brilliant win at Caulfield last start is building a lovely record with five wins from 10 career starts. Should again be too good and make Craig Williams a step closer towards claiming the premiership.

AL PASSEM ($6.50)

Race 8, Number 3

Caulfield, Saturday, 4.10pm

Won over this track and distance last start at big odds and with a nice draw and in well at the weights after the claim for Ben Thompson is worth sticking with on an each-way basis.

FOOTY

SYDNEY ($1.75)

Sydney has won 10 of their past 12 games at Etihad Stadium and have a great record at the ground against the Kangaroos with four wins and a draw in six clashes between the sides at the ground. Stick with the Swans.

PORT ADELAIDE -24.5 ($1.90)

The Power are sitting pretty in fourth place and should be way too good for an injury ravaged Fremantle side desperate for the end of the season. The Power look a lovely way to round out the weekend betting activity.

Melbourne Storm will be eager to continue their stunning form this weekend.

RUGBY LEAGUE

MELBOURNE STORM ($1.47) V MANLY SEA EAGLES ($2.75)

BROOKVALE OVAL, SATURDAY, 5.30PM

MELBOURNE Storm has unfinished business with Manly Sea Eagles, just as the purple juggernaut had against St George-Illawarra last week when the premier scored nine tries in a rollicking display.

Storm ($1.47) will need to be at their best to silence the Sea Eagles ($2.75) at Brookvale Oval, traditionally a happy hunting ground for Craig Bellamy’s men.

Storm boats a 4-2 recent record at the venue, including the past two matches.

But Manly stunned Storm in Melbourne 24-4 in Round 11, before the best-of-three State of Origin series began.

Storm has not lost since, remaining undefeated throughout the tricky Origin block despite losing a host of players to representative duties, with wins over North Queensland, Brisbane, Newcastle, Sydney and Dragons.

For the first time this season Storm could unleash the same line-up in back-to-back games, having escaped the seesawing 52-30 win over St George-Illawarra without any new injuries.

Storm shortened $6 to $5 with TAB in NRL premiership betting after slaying the Dragons.

RUGBY

HIGHLANDERS ($1.16) V MELBOURNE REBELS ($5.25)

FORSYTH BARR STADIUM, SATURDAY, 3.15PM

IT IS crunch time for the Melbourne Rebels.

The Rebels ($5.25) can book their place in the Super Rugby finals — a first for the Victorian franchise — with a win over the Highlanders ($1.16) in New Zealand on Saturday.

Wallabies Will Genia (broken arm) and lock Adam Coleman (adductor muscle) could be welcome inclusions for the Rebels, pummelled 37-23 last week against Queensland Reds, for the high stakes clash across the ditch.

A loss for the Rebels will pave the way for South Africa’s Sharks to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot.

The Rebels scored a drought-breaking win in New Zealand last month, defeating the Blues 20-10 at Eden Park.

The Highlanders, currently sixth in the overall standings, have dropped their past two games.

TAB has installed the Rebels $501 to win the Super Rugby crown, while the Highlanders ($19) command the sixth-line of betting, behind short-priced favourites Crusaders ($1.50).

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING

Season begins October

$1.55 Golden State

$7 Boston, Houston

$10 LA Lakers

$14 Philadelphia

$51+ Others Quoted

LeBron James’ move to Los Angeles Lakers has resulted in their odds firming into $5.50 for the title fight.

BASKETBALL

NBA

HEY JAMES, GIVE US A RING

THE 2018-19 NBA season might be three months away still but that hasn’t stopped TAB punters from rallying behind LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

James’ sensational off-season move to Hollywood has resulted in the Lakers firming into outright fourth favourites — on the third line of betting — to win the 2018-19 NBA crown.

When James announced his move last week, the Lakers firmed into $5.50 after being $51 when the market opened, while his former franchise, Cleveland Cavaliers, went from $13 to $201.

All-conquering Golden State Warriors opened $2.40 to win their third-straight championship, but firmed dramatically when big man DeMarcus Cousins declared his intention to move to the Bay Area.

The Warriors are now $1.55 favourites to complete the three-peat, with the Lakers drifting back out to $10.

While the Lakers looks set to be the sharp improvers with James at the helm, the Sixers ($14) and Celtics ($7) could benefit from a clean bill of health in the 2018-19 campaign.

The Celtics surprised all-comers last year to surge into playoff calculations despite losing Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward to season-ending injuries.

Manny Pacquiao (right) has attracted 96 per cent of all money wagered with TAB.

BOXING

MANNY PACQUIAO ($1.50) V LUCAS MATTHYSSE ($2.60)

KUALA LUMPUR, SUNDAY 10AM

BOXING great Manny Pacquiao ($1.50) is all the rage ahead of his bout with Lucas Matthysse ($2.60) on July 15.

The Filipino legend, who will challenge Matthysse for his secondary welterweight title in Kuala Lumpur, has attracted 96 per cent of all money wagered with Australian bookmaker TAB.

The eight division world champion Pacquiao has not fought since going down in controversial circumstances against Australian Jeff Horn in Brisbane in July last year.

Pacquiao owns a career record of 68 fights, for 59 wins, including 38 by knock-out, seven losses and two draws.

While the 39-year-old “Pac Man” surged through the different weight divisions early in his career, the southpaw has lost four of his past nine bouts.

Pacquiao parted with long-time trainer Freddie Roach, ending a 15-year association, after losing his welterweight title to Horn, replacing the veteran with cornerman Restituto Fernandez.

Matthysse has won 39 of 44 bouts, including 36 by knockout.

HORSE RACING

CAULFIELD

SIR JOHN MONASH STAKES

SATURDAY, 3.30PM

SMART colt Jukebox could have punters dancing all the way to the betting ring at Caulfield with victory in the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m).

The Ciaron Maher-trained speed machine, who is TAB’s $4 equal favourite, should relish track and trip, having won twice and placed once in three appearances at Caulfield.

Ultra-consistent four-year-old gelding Ashlor ($6) looks the testing material over the short course, while equal favourite Crystal Dreamer performs well fresh for astute Ellerton-Zahra yard, having never missed a place when first-up, including twice a winner.

The Darren Weir trained gelding Voodoo Lad, who has been good enough for two group one second placings, sits on the second line of betting at $5.

Suspect noted mud lark Inn Keeper ($6) to be saved for another day with good conditions expected while connections for $700,000 Snitzel colt Ducimus ($8.50) would be desperate for a collect.

HARNESS TIP

TEE CEE BEE MACRAY ($4.20)

Race 5, Number 10

Tabcorp Park Melton, Saturday, 7.02pm

Missed narrowly in a stronger race last start after making up a stack of ground over the concluding stages. Should settle slightly closer this week and looks a good chance given a decent tempo.

GREYHOUND TIP

TORNADO TEARS ($1.95)

Race 6, Box 4

Sandown Park, Thursday, 7.52pm

Up against a quality field in the Group 2 McKenna Memorial, he just needs an ounce of luck early. Has the potential to become an all-time great.