The Punt: your ultimate ticket to winning big this weekend with TAB

THEY say history does repeat, but are the Saints value at long odds to do a job on the reigning premiers like last year or could it be argued that backing them is throwing money away?

THEY say history does repeat, but are the Saints value at long odds to do a job on the reigning premiers like last year or could it be argued that backing them is throwing money away?

Last year in Maddie’s Match, the Saints buried Richmond in the first half and never looked back as they recorded a surprise victory to the tune of 67 points at Etihad Stadium.

It was a season-defining result on many levels, with Richmond regrouping against the Brisbane Lions before going on to win the premiership, while the Saints returned to the same venue next week to be pumped by Essendon.

Check out all the odds on the big AFL matches this weekend and across the sporting landscape both nationally and overseas in the latest edition of The Punt betting guide.

THE PUNT SPECIAL

$6 — Jack Riewoldt to kick at least three goals and take eight marks.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

SATURDAY BEST: WITH RAY AND SHAYNE

THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK

NICK QUINN’S BEST BETS

RACING

FUN FACT ($3.90)

Race 5, No.1

FLEMINGTON, SATURDAY, 2.15PM

Waterhouse/Bott trained colt who was a gutsy winner at Newcastle last start and should get an easy lead here and rack up a second straight win. The step up to 1800 metres looks ideal.

SIXTIES GROOVE ($2.60)

Race 8, No. 6

FLEMINGTON, SATURDAY, 4.15PM

Former import who finally broke through for his first Australian win last start after being heavily backed at his first three runs for Darren Weir. He looks progressive and is worth sticking with as he races through the grades.

FOOTY

COLLINGWOOD ($1.53)

The Magpies have had a magnificent season and despite a slip up against West Coast last Sunday they should bounce back with a win at a backable price.

PORT ADELAIDE ($1.75)

Port was horrible last Sunday in losing a game against Fremantle that has seriously dented their top four aspirations. Port should bounce back and beat a GWS side who was flattered by the scoreboard last Saturday night against Richmond.

St Kilda’s Sebastian Ross gathers the ball from Trent Cotchin (left) at Etihad Stadium last year. Picture: Getty Images

AFL

ST KILDA ($6.50) V RICHMOND ($1.11)

ETIHAD, FRIDAY 7.50PM

ST KILDA fans will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s Maddie’s Match when the side clashes with Richmond on Friday night.

The last time the Saints donned the purple jumper they stunned the eventual premiers, at one stage leading by 95 points in the third quarter at Etihad Stadium before the Tigers rallied to cut the final margin 67 points.

It was a night where nothing, save for Josh Bruce’s goalkicking, could go wrong for the Saints.

Gun midfielder Seb Ross claimed the three Brownlow Medal votes after he picked up 33 disposals and kept Tigers superstar Dustin Martin to 19 touches.

The Tigers won the most recent encounter between the two sides, in Round 10, by 28 points at the MCG. Jade Gresham and Josh Caddy both kicked six goals.

Gresham has kicked 68 per cent of his goals this season against the current top eight sides and the 20-year-old has notched 21 goals and 13 goal assists since Round 8.

Richmond is $2.75 with TAB to go back-to-back for the third time in its history and the first since 1974.

By Dylan Atkinson

Max Gawn (left) will prove quite a handful against Geelong on Friday. Picture: Getty Images

GEELONG ($1.60) V MELBOURNE ($2.35)

GMHBA STADIUM, SATURDAY 7.25PM

GEELONG will be hoping for a happy homecoming to GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night after four weeks away from its home ground.

The Cats have won 93 per cent of their matches at Kardinia Park when they have been favourite over the past decade, the highest success rate in the competition.

The last time Melbourne travelled down the highway they lost by 111 points in the final round of 2016 but they did win the previous match there in 2015 in what many Demon supporters remember as the day ruckman Max Gawn announced himself as a star of the competition.

TAB’s $6 second favourite to win the Brownlow Medal hauled down six contested marks while racking up 44 hit-outs and 19 disposals in the 24-point victory.

The match was the first time that Gawn had polled Brownlow votes, with the umpires awarding him best-on-ground honours.

By Dylan Atkinson

HOME TRUTHS

Win percentage as favourite at home ground since 2008

93% — Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

80% — West Coast at Subiaco Oval and Perth Stadium

79% — Hawthorn at the MCG

78% — GWS at Spotless Stadium

78% — St Kilda at Etihad Stadium

STATS AGAINST SUNS

SYDNEY ($1.02) V GOLD COAST ($14)

SCG, SATURDAY 2.10PM

GOLD Coast will be trying to pull off the biggest upset of the season against Sydney on Saturday.

The Suns are $12 to win. St Kilda’s victory against Melbourne a fortnight ago at $7 is the biggest win by an outsider so far in 2018.

If Stuart Dew’s side can pull off a miracle, it would be the equal fourth biggest upset since 1995.

The Suns feature twice on that list, with their inaugural victory in the AFL, against Port Adelaide in 2011, at $14, while they were $15 when they defeated Carlton in Round 22, 2012.

Gold Coast has never beaten Sydney and 35 points in 2014 is its nearest margin.

Given the Swans’ dominance against the Suns, it is surprising Gold Coast is the only team against which Lance Franklin has never polled a Brownlow Medal vote.

By Dylan Atkinson

HARNESS RACING

PUNTERS ARE ON FOR THE RIDE

THE BLACKS A FAKE

ALBION PARK, SATURDAY 8.40PM

KIWI pacer Let It Ride ($6) has been best backed with TAB to win Saturday’s $200,000 Group 1 Blacks A Fake Queensland Championship at Albion Park.

Soho Tribeca was the $2.20 favourite before he was injured last Saturday night in the Sunshine Sprint.

Since the final field was announced, Let It Ride has scooped up the punters, attracting more than half the money wagered.

Long shot Bodhi tree has drawn specking at $81.

Atomic Red ($3) was installed favourite after drawing barrier four and Tact Tate ($4.80) will start from barrier six.

Cruz Bromac and My Field Marshal (both $6.50) should be thereabouts, having drawn nicely, while Carla’s Pixel ($19) and Ultimate Art ($13) could be the best of the roughies.

Let It Ride is looking for six straight wins.

By Dylan Atkinson

HARNESS TIP

PROFESSOR TOM ($2.50)

RACE 7, No. 2

Tabcorp Park Melton, Saturday 8pm

Notched up an impressive victory in the heats last week when working across from a wide gate and from a better draw he should be repeating last week’s success.

Billy Slater is expected to return for the Melbourne Storm this weekend. Picture: Getty Images

NRL

STORM READY FOR RAIDING MISSION

MELBOURNE STORM ($1.65) V WARRIORS ($2.25)

MT SMART STADIUM, AUCKLAND, SUNDAY, 2PM

MELBOURNE Storm will ride a wave of momentum across the Tasman for Sunday’s blockbuster against New Zealand Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium.

Storm ($1.65) has won its past six matches to surge back into NRL premiership consideration, while the Warriors ($2.30) snapped a two-game losing streak last week against Brisbane Broncos.

Despite mixed success in recent weeks, the Warriors have won six of seven matches this season as underdogs.

But Melbourne appears set to regain a host of State of Origin stars, including Billy Slater, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster and Will Chambers.

Storm pummelled New Zealand 50-10 in Round 8, the traditional Anzac night game at AAMI Park.

MOTORSPORT

KIWI ONE TO BEAT

IPSWICH SUPERSPRINT

QUEENSLAND RACEWAY, SATURDAY 4.15PM

SUPERCARS frontrunner Scott McLaughlin ($2.75) can consolidate his lead at the top of the championship table with victory in the Ipswich SuperSprint this weekend.

The Kiwi flyer had a win and second at Ipswich last year.

Holden ace Jamie Whincup and championship contender Shane van Gisbergen (both $3.50) sit on the second line of TAB betting, with David Reynolds ($7.50), Fabian Coulthard ($15) and veteran Craig Lowndes ($15) the next best-rated chances.

McLaughlin, a winner at Phillip Island (twice), Melbourne, Perth and Darwin this season, will look to put his stamp on the race weekend during qualifying.

The 25-year-old holds a 131-point margin on countryman Van Gisbergen with eight rounds left.

Germany’s Sebastian Vettel celebrates with his Ferrari crew after winning the British Grand Prix at Silverstone. Picture: Getty Images

SEB RIGHT AT HOME

GERMAN GRAND PRIX

HOCKENHEIMRING, SUNDAY 11.10PM

FORMULA 1 aces Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel share top billing for the German Grand Prix.

Valtteri Bottas sits on the second line of betting, with Max Verstappen, Australian Red Bull flyer Daniel Ricciardo and Kimi Raikkonen the next best.

Hamilton won the race in 2016, but Ricciardo, who finished second, posted the fastest lap.

The German Grand Prix was dropped from the F1 calendar last year, but this time around the fast Hockenheim circuit, which is good for overtaking, should ensure a competitive race.

Ferrari flyer Vettel (171 points) holds an eight-point lead over Hamilton (163) in the drivers’ championship standings, with Raikkonen (116) and Ricciardo (106) well back.

YOU BETCHA WITH ELIZA SEWELL

STORM FRONT

Let’s go short and then really long this week. Storm got us the cash against Manly last week and should go well in New Zealand.

While the Warriors are looking OK, they’re inconsistent and, with the Origin stars back, let’s take Storm at the line (-3.5 points).

Odds $1.90

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Think! About your choices. Call Gambler’s Help Gambling Help or the ACT Gambling Counselling and Support Service on 1800 858 858 www.gamblinghelp.nsw.gov.au or www.gamblinghelponline.org.au Don’t chase your losses. Walk away. Gamble responsibly.

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