The Early Oil: Michael Manley previews Flemington

SIXTIES Groove strikes that perfect beat with leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley heading into the Flemington meeting.

YOU could argue Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley has been stuck in the Sixties Groove for some time, so it probably comes as no surprise that he stuck thick with Darren Weir five-year-old this weekend.

Michael says Sixties Groove could not have been more impressive winning this track and distance last start.

But it was the excellent closing sectionals that Sixties Groove produced despite being eased down that proved the catalyst in Michael making Sixties Groove his best for Flemington.

Check out what else he likes this week’s edition of The Early Oil.

BEST BET

SIXTIES GROOVE (R8, No. 6)

VALUE BET

CASA DE LAGO (R7, No. 6)

EARLY QUADDIE

4,5,6,7/4,8/1,2,5,6,7,8,10,11,13,16,18,21/1,2,3,4,6

$100 flexi for 22.72 per cent

BIG6

$100 flexi for 13.88 per cent

5,6,8,10,16,21/1,2,3,4,6/1,2,4/4,6/6/1,5,6,7

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,2,3,4

Race 7: 4,5,6,8

Race 8: 1,6

Race 9: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

$100 flexi for 39.06 per cent

RACE 1

SHALWA (6) should be ready to break through after two seconds at her two runs back from a spell. Last start she couldn’t wear down SEDUCTIVE MISS (2) in the closing stages at Sandown Hillside and she will meet her three kilos better. She finished second this track and distance to Twitchy Frank last January. ABSOLUTE HEAVEN (8) didn’t fire on a wet track at Moonee Valley last start. Go on her close second to Remember The Name this track and distance two starts ago. MISS PANDANUS (4) ran on strongly to make it two wins from two starts when she defeated NAANTALI (2). GLAYVA (7) fought on well after having had a tough run behind MAGNESIUM ROSE (1) at Caulfield last week.

SUGGESTED BET: SHALWA THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

1) Magnesium Rose $6 — $6.50

3) Naantali $6 — $5.50 — $6 — $5.50

4) Miss Pandanus $7.50 — $4.60 — $5 ($500 @ $7.50, $400 @ $6.50)

5) Tagreeda $8.50 — $9.50 — $9 — $9.50

6) Shalwa $3.50 — $4.20 — $4

7) Glayva $15 — $16 — $11 — $12

RACE 2

SO SPLENDID (7) has run on well in her two starts this time in for thirds at Rosehill. Last November she ran on strongly to finish second behind LINGUIST (6) this track and distance. Linguist had little luck last start at Moonee Valley as she was trapped wide. She’ll be suited by the firmer surface. ANOTHER BULLSEYE (4) wasn’t disgraced last start at Caulfield in a stronger race behind Haripour when she finished fourth. She won here four starts ago over 1600m when she defeated Galaxy Raider. SPANNER HEAD (5) finished sixth in that race and she races well at Flemington. MILES OF KRISHAN (1) and SINGLE NOTE (2) are smart mares who must be considered.

SUGGESTED BET: SO SPLENDID THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

4) Another Bullseye $7 — $7.50

5) Spanner Head $7 — $7.50

6) Linguist $8.50 — $8

7) So Splendid $3 — $3.10

10) Winkelmann $11 — $9.50

RACE 3

INTRIGUING runner is Lloyd Williams stayer CROCODILE ROCK (4), who hasn’t started for 10 months. You can be assured that the team at Mt Macedon has him fit and ready to go. His last start second behind Almandin with Aloft third at Flemington last September underlines his class. His danger is the in-form and super fit THUNDER CLOUD (8) from the Weir stable who has won four of his last six starts and was unlucky on the other two occasions. He should be ready for 2500m. SERENADE THE STARS (10) wasn’t suited being on the fence at Sandown Lakeside last start. He’s a promising stayer. DARABAD (9) has been schooling.

SUGGESTED BET: CROCODILE ROCK THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

2) Falago $9 — $8.50; then $7.50

3) Mongolian Wolf $9 — $10; then $9

4) Crocodile Rock $2.40 — $2.50; then $2.40

8) Thunder Cloud $3.20 — $3.30; then $3.10

Deduction 6c for Grey Lion scratching on Thursday morning/

RACE 4

DATA POINT (8) hasn’t quite delivered on his potential but he usually flies fresh. Having the outside barrier will suit his style of racing. EDUARDO (21) has won both of his starts in brilliant fashion. TAHI (16) returned to form with a tough win at Sale last start after sitting wide. CHATUCHAK (10) was slowly away at Caulfield which put her out of contention. She has the benefit of Damian Lane to ride. ASTRO CASTRO (6) won his debut this track two years ago and he’s found form again. ARTIE DEE TWO (5) didn’t have much luck in Adelaide last start. HIGHLAND BEAT (1) is the class act in the race. THELBURG (2) will have his first start for Saab Hasan who has a reputation for rejuvenating smart horses.

SUGGESTED BET: DATA POINT EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

5) Artie Dee Two $7.50 — $8

7) Mystified $7.50 — $8

8) Data Point $9.50 — $11 — $10

10) Chatuchak $9.50 — $11 — $10

13) Overstep $9.50 — $10

16) Tahi $9.50 — $10 ($500 @ $10)

21) Eduardo [1em] $3 — $3.40 — $3.20

22) Pleasant [2em] $18 — $13

RACE 5

Darren Weir’s LIFT (3) is bred to stay and he made up many lengths to finish second behind British Medium over 1600m at Ballarat on a heavy track on June 24. Ellerton/Zahra’s SO YOU SWING (6) finished on nicely for second behind Social Spin over 1400m at Sandown Lakeside and the step up to 1800m will suit. FUN FACT (1) showed trademark Waterhouse/Bott fight to lead and hold off a strong challenge to win at Newcastle last start. VISAO (2) by High Chaparral won easily at Mildura at his second start and should also be suited by 1800m. Forget INKSLINGER (3) went around at Flemington last start as he almost fell in the straight.

SUGGESTED BET: LIFT EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

1) Fun Fact $3.60 — $3.90

2) Visao $6 — $4.80 ($400 @ $6)

3) Lift $4 — $4.60

6) So You Swing $4 — $3.90 ($500 @ $4, $850 @ $3.90)

Brave Song probably has the measure of his southern rivals. Picture: AAP

RACE 6

Sydney sprinter BRAVE SONG (1) was competitive against some top horses and finished third in the Eskimo Prince Stakes behind Kementari and Siege Of Quebec at Group 3 level. He’s in the astute Snowden team and he ran on strongly from last for third in a strong trial at Randwick over 1045m. ORDER OF COMMAND (4) produced good closing sectionals when second to Nature Strip over 1200m at Flemington. Drops back to 1100m. DUCIMUS (2) flew home for second two starts ago over 1000m at Flemington behind DOUBLE JEOPARDY (6). Last start he raced ungenerously when eighth behind Nature Strip. A cross-over noseband goes on. KENNEDY (3) has strong Sydney form and he was held up for a run when first-up at Caulfield last start.

SUGGESTED BET: BRAVE SONG THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

2) Ducimus $4.40 — $4.80 ($555 @ $4.80)

3) Kennedy $6.50 — $7

RACE 7

CASA DE LAGO (6) finished on strongly for second behind Mintha this track and distance. She drops two kilos on that run and the fillies ran 1.61 seconds faster than the three-year-old boys that day in the race won by MR MONEY BAGS (2). Darren Weir and Damian Lane combine with promising colt NIGHT FALLS (4) who strolled in at his last start at Gawler by almost five lengths. Big effort from STREETS OF AVALON (5) to finish second last week at Caulfield behind Mandela Effect as he was trapped wide for most of the race and was also checked with 500m to go. Mick Kent’s LIMEKILNS (8) was checked with 150m to go when 3.1 lengths ninth this track and distance last start.

SUGGESTED BET: CASA DE LAGO EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

3) Al Passem $8.50 — $9.50

4) Night Falls $2.80 — $3

5) Streets Of Avalon $4 — $4.60 — $4.20

6) Casa De Lago $7.50 — $6.50 — $7

Craig Williams pilots Sixties Groove to victory at Flemington this month.

RACE 8

SIXTIES GROOVE (6) should be destined for better races judging on his win this track and distance last start. He ran his last 200m in 11.36 seconds while being eased down. He’s up against his talented stablemate PACODALI (1) who defeated him at Caulfield two starts ago and he shapes as the danger. Jarrod McLean prepares those two gallopers for Weir but he also has tough former Perth stayer TRAPS FOR FOOLS (3) under his own name. He finished third behind the aforementioned pair at Caulfield last start. He’ll push forward. MY NORDIC HERO (5) finished fifth in that race.

SUGGESTED BET: SIXTIES GROOVE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

1) Pacodali $6.50 — $6

2) Morton’s Fork $10 — $12 — $8

3) Trap For Fools $9.50 — $8.50 — $9

6) Sixties Groove $2.40 — $2.60 ($4000 @ $2.50, $1000 [twice] @ $2.60)

9) Sayed $9 — $10

10) Kilimanjaro $8.50 — $9.50

14) Jaameh $18 — $14 — $15 — $14 ($400 @ $18)

RACE 9

Blinkers go on WISE HERO (5) for the first time who had little luck when 11th at Caulfield last start. He’s a consistent performer and has the benefit of Damian Lane. Former Kiwi/Queensland mare KHALAMA (6) made a nice debut for Shane Nichols when she made ground along the rails for third behind Belwazi over 1000m at Moonee Valley. DANCE WITH FONTEIN (7) finished second in that race. ROCKET TOMMY (2) loves the straight and returns to 1000m which will suit him better than the 1100m of his previous start. INVINCIBLE AL (4) returned to form with a win at Morphettville Parks last start. He likes Flemington. WE’VE GOT THIS (1) hasn’t fired for ages but his best form would see him hard to beat.

SUGGESTED BET: WISE HERO EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

4) Invincible Al $3.20 — $3.50

5) Wise Hero $4.40 — $4.60 — $4.20

8) Nordic Empire $7 ($500 @ $7)

Originally published as The Early Oil: Michael Manley previews Flemington