The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews Saturday’s Blue Diamond Stakes meeting at Caulfield

TAB BIG BETS: HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at the nine-race card at the bumper Caulfield meeting, featuring the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - FEBRUARY 13: Damien Oliver riding Flying Artie defeats Dwayne Dunn riding Star Turn in Race 4, Blue Diamond Prelude during Melbourne Racing at Caulfield Racecourse on February 13, 2016 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at the nine-race card at the bumper Caulfield meeting, featuring the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes.

STABLE WATCH: THE INSIDE MAIL FOR RANDWICK

RACE 1

ASSIGN’s (8) effort to win first-up at Sandown Hillside lumping 62 kilograms was good enough but take into account he sat wide without cover and it was an even more meritorious win. Rises in class but drops eight kilos and looks to have a lot of upside. Another import MANNDAWI (3) impressed at his debut for Darren Weir, running on steadily for sixth behind stablemate Burning Front over 1600m. Geelong Cup placegetter last spring so step up to 2000m is ideal. TASHBEEH (4) has been a model of consistency. Couldn’t run down frontrunner Falago at Caulfield last start over 1800m after taking a sit. Back to 2000m and likely to be ridden more aggressively by Craig Williams. Interesting runner is Gai Waterhouse’s BONFIRE (2) who first-up last preparation finished a close-up sixth in the Group 2 Hill Stakes behind Preferment at Randwick.

Suggested bet: Assign the win.

RACE 2

BASSETT (5) is a top class sprinter resuming who is two from two first-up at Caulfield. Looked sharp winning recent jump-out at Caulfield. SANTA ANA LANE (11) also trialled strongly at Cranbourne recently. Looked a potential top-liner at his first preparation winning his first two starts before finishing fourth to Mahuta over 1400m. PURITAN (3) swooped home to win this track and distance first-up. EL GRECO (7) is a solid performer resuming. POPOVICH (9) made it two from two when he worked hard to lead at Sandown. Former smart Sydney galloper ODYSSEY MOON (2) makes his debut for same stable. MOGADOR (6) will get back but has form around some smart horses.

Suggested bet: Bassett each-way.

TAB market movers: Puritan $9-$8 ($250 @ $9, $200 @ $9)

Bassett, left, has a faultless first-up record at Caulfield. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 3

EGYPT’s (7) fast-finishing second to Don’t Doubt Mamma last week in a stronger race stamps her as the horse to beat. She peeled off an 11.32 seconds for her last 200m, which was only bettered by Chautauqua for the meeting. PASADENA GIRL (1) didn’t have a lot of luck in the spring but ran well every time she stepped out. First-up second last time in to Stay With Me at Moonee Valley. CANA (5) went forward and battled on well for third behind Risque over 1200m last start at Caulfield and step up to 1400m should suit. MOSSIN’ AROUND (4) is racing consistently.

Suggested bet: Egypt each-way.

RACE 4

The super tough MAHUTA (1) made it six wins on end since the blinkers went on with narrow win over 1400m last start at Caulfield. His jockey Brad Rawiller made it a high pressure race with the plan to take the kick out of his rival Holler which worked but made him slightly vulnerable at the finish. From barrier one will be hard to get past as usual. TALLY’s (8) two wins this time in have been impressive. Each time he looked awkwardly placed but in the finish won comfortably. HARDERN (7) ran on nicely behind Mahuta when dropped back to 1400m after winning at Caulfield over 1600m. CELTIC TIGER (6) ran on in the same race and suited by 1800m. CHARLEVOIX (11) won his debut impressively at Sandown.

Suggested bet: Mahuta the win.

TAB market movers: Mahuta $2 unchanged ($2,435 @ $2), Tally $5.50-$5-$4.60 ($1,200 @ $5.50)

RACE 5

BOW CREEK (8) was one of many luckless runners in the Orr Stakes but was close to the top of the queue in that category. Benchmark Australian run is still his close second to Turn Me Loose over 1600m at Group 2 level at Moonee Valley at his Australian debut. Lucky Hussler was third. Step up to 1800m will suit. FENWAY (13) was another Orr Stakes traffic victim. She’s well drawn and is likely to push forward. Ditto for FAWKNER (1) in the Orr Stakes. He finished 14th but was another held up and had plenty to give. Finished second second-up beaten by MOURINHO (3) this track/distance/class last campaign. Mourinho suffered his bad luck before the start when he was kicked behind the barriers before a lacklustre performance. Also won this race last year. RISING ROMANCE (12) finished off nicely in the Orr and also better suited by 1800m.

Suggested bet: Bow Creek the win.

TAB market movers: Happy Trails $13-$10 ($400 @ $13), Mourinho $21-$17 ($1,500 @ $21 x $500 @ $5.70), Fenway $7-$6 ($375 @ $7, $250 @ $7)

Bow Creek flashed home for second to Turn Me Loose on his Australian debut. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 6

Another race where many luckless runners from the Orr Stakes clash. HUCKLEBUCK’s (4) effort to finish third was huge. Went back from his outside draw of 18 and began his run a long way out and just kept coming. From barrier four he will settle handier and third-up from a spell he should be ready to go. SUAVITO (10) won this race last year and resumed with brilliant first-up win in the Orr Stakes. She’s now won five of her last six. TURN ME LOOSE (3) led in the Orr Stakes and only wilted in the last 100m. BOBAN (1) also gave away a big start in the Orr Stakes and ran on nicely. From barrier two should take beating. If POLITENESS (11) gained the right runs she’s capable of winning.

Suggested bet: Hucklebuck each-way.

TAB market movers: Turn Me Loose $3.30-$3.20 ($350 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.20), Suavito $6-$6.50-$6 ($425 @ $6.50), Politeness $8 unchanged ($550 @ $8, $325 @ $8)

RACE 7

Happy to back Damien Oliver’s judgment by sticking with FLYING ARTIE (3). He sat wide when successful in the Prelude. Won narrowly but also over-raced at stages mid-race. He’ll be better for the experience and will run 1200m out strongly. Will start from barrier 15, which Earthquake won from two years ago. Should be good speed. Stablemate EXTREME CHOICE (1) has won his two starts over 1000m in brilliant fashion running quick times. The query is the 1200m. SAMARA DANCER (10) is a strong filly. She won the filly’s division of the Prelude, coming from off the speed in a slightly faster time than Flying Artie. CONCEALER (11) charged home out wide from last for second and will be suited by 1200m. Best outsider could be MISS NYMERIA (15) who finished third in that race after drifting back from wide barrier.

Suggested bet: Flying Artie each-way.

TAB market movers: Flying Artie $3.80-$4.20, Concealer $8-$6.50-$7-$6 ($500 e/w @ $8/$2.55, $500 @ $7), Samara Dancer $8.50-$7 ($2,000 @ $8), Star Turn $17-$13 ($5,000 x $4,500 @ $15/$4.11)

RACE 8

HEATHERLY (16) was awesome winning the Rubiton Stakes by five and a half lengths last start. From barrier four she’s going to take running down. Danger should be another three-year-old on the minimum weight in KEEN ARRAY (18). He’s a Caulfield winner and at his last start he finished second to Japonisme in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. If the speed is cutthroat, best backmarker could be THE QUARTERBACK (11), who produces amazing closing sectionals. BOUNDING (7) is a brilliant sprinter who won first-up this track and distance last campaign. ÉCLAIR CHOICE (5) will have taken a lot of improvement from his first-up run. FAST ’N’ ROCKING (3) will also be suited by the speed. FELL SWOOP (8) has won eight out of 10 and is aiming for five in a row.

Suggested bet: Heatherly the win.

TAB market movers: Bounding $6.50-$6 ($800 @ $6.50), Heatherly $6.50-$6 ($800 x $500 @ $6.50/$2.37, $500 @ $6)

Heatherly will take plenty of running down on Saturday.

RACE 9

Potential topliner AZKADELLIA (10) flew home when second to TUSCAN SLING (3) first-up over 1200m here producing the fastest last 200m of the day at 11.34 seconds. Trainer Ciaron Maher said she will be improved by that run and step up to 1400m is ideal. Should be good speed in this. WAWAIL (2) finished first-up fourth in the same race and also better suited by 1400m. CHOOSE (4) led until the closing stages in the same race when third. She’s also better suited over 1400m. TUSCAN SLING (3) steps up to 1400m but can’t fault her form. MISS ROSE DE LAGO (1) resumes and is three from three at Caulfield.

Suggested bet: Azkadellia the win.

TAB market movers: Azkadellia $2.50-$2.45 ($350 @ $2.50)

MICK’S PICKS

BEST BET: AZKADELLIA (Race 9, No. 10)

VALUE BET: EGYPT (Race 3, No. 7)

SNEAKY CHANCE: THE QUARTERBACK (Race 8, No. 11)

EARLY QUADDIE: 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,11/1,4,5,7,/1,8/1,3,8,12,13

$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent

BIG 6: 1,8/1,3,8,12,13/1,3,4,10/1,3/11,16,18/10

$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent