Stable watch: Ray Thomas gets the inside mail for Randwick on Saturday, plus Nic Ashman’s race analysis

TAB BIG BETS: Trainer David Hayes is relying on close relation to Black Caviar, a daughter of Miss Finland, and a European stayer bred by the Aga Khan to attempt a feature race treble Randwick.

HALL of Fame trainer David Hayes is relying on close relation to Black Caviar, a daughter of Miss Finland, and a European stayer bred by the Aga Khan to attempt a feature race treble Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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Hayes, who trains in partnership with Tom Dabernig, has Lionhearted entered for the Group 2 Skyline Stakes, Stay With Me is in the Group 2 Surround Stakes and Dibayani takes on super mare Winx in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes.

Golden Slipper hopeful Lionhearted is a superbly bred son of Fastnet Rock out of Scandinavia, the grandam of Black Caviar and All Too Hard.

“Lionhearted is Black Caviar’s uncle,’’ Hayes said. “He is drawn a bit awkwardly but I’ve put the blinkers on and he is improving with racing.’’

The talented Stay With Me is out of Hayes’s 2006 Golden Slipper heroine and five-time Group 1 winner Miss Finland and is already a major race winner herself, taking out the Thousand Guineas last spring.

“Stay With Me had ‘none’ first-up,’’ Hayes said. “There was no tempo and she over-raced out the back. She is a very good filly and I’m hoping there is more speed in the Surround Stakes. She has drawn a good barrier and can bounce back.’’

R1: ALL TOO HARD HCP (2400m)

Trainer David Vandyke has hinted at a change of riding tactics for Archean following a disappointing last start effort.

Archean raced up on the speed until the turn before dropping out to run seventh behind Allergic at Randwick over 2000m. Vandyke wants the talented but enigmatic stayer ridden more conservatively on Saturday.

“We rode him from last in a trial last week and although he finished second last he was very strong through the line,’’ Vandyke said. “I think he is suited ridden this way and we are going to adopt that pattern of racing for him.

“This horse thinks a lot during his races but we feel if ridden back in the field, he will be picking them up and finding the line.

“He will switch off and then coming to the turn he will know he has to do his work and I think he might really attack the line. He is bred to the get trip, he is super fit and I’m sure he will be getting home strongly.’’

TAB market movers: Another Cocktail $6-$4.80 ($500 @ $6, $400 @ $6, $1,200 @ $5.50)

Archean is likely to be ridden back in the field on Saturday. Picture: Gregg Porteous

R2: SKYLINE STAKES (1200m)

Hayman, a monster of a juvenile colt who weighs in at 550kg, surprised trainer Lee Curtis with the dazzling speed he showed to win a Rosehill barrier trial two weeks ago,

“He is not the best trackworker in the stable, I have others that go much better than he does, but put him up against other horses and he is a competitor,’’ Curtis said. “I was impressed by the great speed he showed in that trial and he has really come on from that, too.

“For a big, strong colt, he has a lovely nature, we can do anything with him, and he has got style about him. You can tell he has something on the others, he gets around like a ‘dude’, nothing fazes him. We are throwing him in the deep end but he will run a good race.’’

TAB market movers: Mediterranean $11-$9.50 ($300 @ $11)

R3: TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1600m)

Canberra trainer Luke Pepper has Appoint Percy primed to claim the final TAB Highway until after the Sydney autumn carnival.

“The Randwick ‘mile’ is ideal, Brenton Avdulla rides again, the Canterbury run was just super,’’ Pepper said if Appoint Percy’s last start second to Tower Of Song at Canterbury.

“They stacked up, he got snagged back, probably should have won and the winner is real smart. He’ll be better suited on the bigger track at 1600m, he’s well in at this weight scale, but again these Highways are tough to win.”

TAB market movers: Appoint Percy $2.60-$2.40 ($600 @ $2.50, $1,300 @ $2.40)

R4: SWEET EMBRACE STAKES (1200m)

Twist Tops belies her diminutive stature with a fierce will-to-win.

The Kris Lees-trained filly enduring a torrid run but showed tremendous determination to ward off challenges and win the Inglis Classic last start.

“There was a lot to like about her Inglis Classic win,’’ Lees said. “She might have found the right lane but she didn’t have the easiest run, she was there to be beaten and she kept fighting hard.

“She is a very tough, little filly and she has trained on well. The three weeks between runs has been ideal. I think this race will tell us where we are at but I think she can measure up to this level.’’

TAB market movers: In The Vanguard $8-$5.50 ($700 @ $7, $200 @ $6)

Twist Tops scored a tenacious win in the Inglis Classic. Picture: Simon Bullard

R5: SURROUND STAKES (1400m)

Honesta, runner-up in the Flight Stakes and Victoria Oaks at Group 1 level as she recorded four successive second placings last spring, is forward enough to sprint well fresh, according to trainer John Thompson.

“Honesta is in good shape, she has had two trials and an exhibition gallop,’’ Thompson said. “She didn’t run a bad race all spring and I’m happy with how she is coming up, she seems set for a great preparation.’’

TAB market movers: Single Gaze $23-$15, Honesta $26-$15 ($200 @ $26), Heartlings $10-$8 ($600 @ $10)

R6: GUY WALTER STAKES (1400m)

Peeping, game in defeat under 59kg in the Triscay Stakes, is better suited by the set weights and penalties conditions of tomorrow’s feature mares race. But trainer Ron Quinton acknowledges the opposition for the Guy Walter Stakes is stronger again.

“Peeping drops from 59kg in the quality handicap to 56kg so that will help but there is some competition in this race,’’ Quinton said. “She ran a fantastic race first-up and has come through it well.’’

Peeping has never won second-up from a spell but has been placed twice from three attempts.

Her only failure came in the Sheraco Stakes last spring when she tailed the field home but was found to have heart arrhythmia.

TAB market movers: Amicus $6-$5 ($1,000 @ $6), Solicit $2.50 unchanged ($1,000 @ $2.50)

R7: CHIPPING NORTON STAKES (1600m)

Hall of Fame trainer David Hayes isn’t about to forecast an upset result but he is confident Dibayani can be competitive against super mare Winx in Sydney’s first Group 1 race of the new year.

“You can’t tip against Winx, how can you?’’ Hayes said. “But I know Dibayani had a horror run in the Apollo Stakes and still very nearly ran a place (fourth to Winx).

“He has drawn the rails so he should get a good run and sprint very well. This is a very underrated horse. In Melbourne last spring, he didn’t handle the way of going that well and still ran some great races but he is more comfortable the Sydney direction.’’

TAB market movers: Winx $1.40 unchanged ($3,000 @ $1.40, $1,000 @ $1.40 THREE TIMES)

David Hayes has several good chances at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Jay Town

R8: LIVERPOOL CITY CUP (1300m)

Trainer Rod Northam concedes the Liverpool City Cup is a “fork in the road” for in-form Big Money’s autumn carnival campaign.

“We will make a decision after this race which path we take for autumn,’’ Northam said. “There are some options including freshening up for The Galaxy and then possibly The Goodwood in Adelaide but if he won The Galaxy we would have to look at the T.J. Smith Stakes.

“The other option is to aim at the Doncaster Mile. I was pleasantly surprised when he got 51kg for the Doncaster so that is not totally out of the question, either.

“It is a good position to be in and the main thing is Big Money pulled up really well after he won the Southern Cross Stakes last start.’’

R9: SCHWEPPES HCP (1200m)

Team Snowden has three good chances in the final race, Nancy, Typhoon Jolie and El Sasso.

Typhoon Jolie and El Sasso have a race fitness edge over their stablemate but Nancy is a mare of considerable talent and

“Nancy showed a lot last time and she is a bit stronger this preparation,’’ co-trainer Peter Snowden said. “Her trial was good and she ready to go to the races. I’ve only given her the one trial as she is not a gross mare but she should run well. Typhoon Jolie and El Sasso both ran well at their last starts, they very fit and are in good order.”

TAB market movers: My Favourite $8-$7 ($1,000 @ $8, $700 @ $6)

FRONT AND BACK

THE Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman looks at the speed and run-on chances at Saturday’s Royal Randwick meeting.

TRACK: Rail out 6m typically favours the first two or three horses off the rails except in big fields when extreme outside lanes come into play.

RACE 1

SPEED: Genuine with Springbok Flyer looking to come across. Mr Steal may try and hold him out and expect Dee I Cee, Loving Home to race more forward now that they’re up in trip.

RUN-ONS: Another Cocktail and Archean should get the right smother and having the late sectionals to figure.

RACE 2

SPEED: Trials indicate Hayman should press forward. Lionhearted was on-pace in a fast run race on debut, Good Standing goes forward and sticks.

RUN ONS: Wides gates should see Telperion and Souchez go back but look for them late.

RACE 3

SPEED: Moderate with Coolcat Dancer rolling forward after 28 days off. Warken has been getting back — up in trip, settles closer.

RUN ONS: King’s Officer will drop out but has the late sectionals to figure. Sculptures is much better than a $151 chance and can produce a sectional.

RACE 4

SPEED: Genuine with Scarlet Rain coming across from wide gate. Kentucky Miss and Palomino try to hold a spot inside. In The Vanguard probably tucks in behind them.

RUN ONS: Twist Tops and Smart Amelia should get perfect runs in transit and have strong late sectionals as does Quick Feet but she needs luck from draw.

Scarlet Rain will shoot across from a wide gate. Picture: Jenny Evans

RACE 5

SPEED: Moderate as a fresh Ghisoni probably leads but stablemate Pearls gets the blinkers first time here — interesting. Don’t be surprised if race fitness sees Captured make this a test. Perignon positions well just behind them.

RUN ONS: Stay With Me has by far the biggest finishing sprint here — the one they have to hold out. Honesta is poorly drawn but trackwork suggests big run fresh.

RACE 6

SPEED: Genuine as Solicit races best when allowed to establish a loose lead. Vergara tags her with Peeping next.

RUN ONS: Zanbagh flew home to win first-up over 1500m last prep — needs cut in the ground to show best. Adorabeel maps much better than first-up and can weave through ruck late.

RACE 7

SPEED: Moderate but Mongolian Khan rolled in trackwork Tuesday running 1:29.3 for his 1400m gallop. Centre Pivot pushes forward with Hartnell, Dibayani in behind them.

RUN ONS: Winx has the best finishing sectionals of any horse in Australia — look for her to unleash again.

RACE 8

SPEED: Genuine and Rich Enuff can set fast pace and win. Tiger Tees and Aomen ensure genuine tempo.

RUN ONS: Generalife, Charlie Boy, Big Money and Silverball — whoever gets the run should figure in finish.

RACE 9

SPEED: Meursault comes across, Typhoon Jolie kicks up. They could pull up mid race.

RUN ONS: My Favourite, Nancy need cover early to finish off. Turbulent Jet gets cover but needs luck late.